rrbauer
04-16-2005, 12:16 PM
I usually don't play these "National" P4's because they're
usually full of chalk and short fields. Not today.
All of the races are on ESPN starting at 4:30 EDT.
Leg 1 Oaklawn R7
SHE SINGS (9/5) is doing a rain dance. Her two wins
are over off tracks and there's not a cloud in the
sky today at Hot Springs. Toss.
TIZZY GIRL (3) is a frontrunner that closes. My friends
over at the Energy Dept (keilan and cj) can speak to
this better than I can, but this style, stretching-out
on a speed-favoring track spells one thing: BET ME!
KOTA (5/2) is a well-rested grinder with a very
explosive sheet pattern and a huge work since raced.
Have to use.
DIBOLI DILLY (10) won on the stretchout when Lasix
was added. With a month's rest she is poised to move
forward again. Have to use lightly.
Leg 2 Keeneland R8
This one is a little tricky because GOLD STORM (6) looks
to be getting a lone-speed trip and he draws in the
clear. He's a use, but 7f is a limitation.
GATORS N BEARS (6) runs big numbers but doesn't win races.
Still he's a threat and another one to use.
That's the potatoes. Now for the meat:
SIR SHACKLETON (5/2) is from the right barn, at the
right distance and at the right time. This race is
his to lose and prior success here is a plus.
LION TAMER (2) needed that last one when 'Shack took
his measure. Johnny V. gets back on board and like
'Shack a prior winning effort here adds to his
credentials.
Leg 3 Keeneland R9 Blue Grass Stakes
How does Frankel do this? Two months before the Derby
and here comes another non-reputation, non-descript
Monster....HIGH LIMIT (9/5) is the one to beat here.
He will need to repulse SUN KING and SPANISH CHESTNUT
up front and hold off BANDINI and CLOSING ARGUMENT
late. The latter two look like they're still moving
forward and they'll benefit if the pace gets too crazy.
Hence, you have to use them.
Leg 4 Oaklawn R9 Arkansas Derby
OK so AFLEET ALEX (2) had a lung infection. That along
with the front wraps and the repeated two-turn failures
are the reasons to toss him. Never mind that contention
goes deeper than whale sh*t in this heat.
This race is filled with horses that have explosive,
forward-moving development patterns: BATSON CHALLENGE (30)
Thirty! 2nd lasix, great post, good works since raced and
you're going to toss him? Not me. ANDROMEDA'S HERO (10)
Hottest barn this side of Mars and bred in the violet. Good
post and no mud to get in the way today. Use. Now for one
that you're making fun of: CANTEEN (12). Just about the
best bred 3YO running anywhere today and he's technically
a Maiden. See that trainer? See those works since being
DQ'd? Did you know he's eating everything in sight and
knocking the walls down at the barn (I heard that for his
last two works that they had to pony him over to the track
with a Hummer to keep him controlled...). Hint: He will
probably make the lead....still making fun? Now, obviously
you have to use FLOWER ALLEY (9/2). He keeps moving
forward and paying good prices. Might be the horse to
beat with GG's outside post. P Val flies in from SoCal to
get on WILD DESERT (6) but I'm not crazy about his style
here. A small use. Bet you're laughing at CAT SHAKER (30)
huh? Do you know that he hates the mud? But, hey you can't
use them all. Finally, GREATER GOOD (5/2) just wins races.
Two problems with him today. The draw in a 10-horse field
and the pedigree that says nope when the furlongs reach 9.
A small use for me.
So to recap:
Leg 1
TIZZY GIRL (A)
KOTA (A)
DIBOLL DILLY (B)
Leg 2
SIR SHACKLETON (A)
LION TAMER (A)
GATORS N BEARS (B)
GOLD STORM (B)
Leg 3
HIGH LIMIT (A)
BANDINI (A)
CLOSING ARGUMENT (B)
Leg 4
CANTEEN (A)
FLOWER ALLEY (A)
BATSON CHALLENGE (B)
ANDROMEDA'S HERO (B)
WILD DESERT (B)
GREATER GOOD (B)
This is all before scratches and before I figure how to stretch my
bankroll to get some good coverage. But, I'm pretty sure that
we're looking at a nice payout on this P4. Good luck!!
usually full of chalk and short fields. Not today.
All of the races are on ESPN starting at 4:30 EDT.
Leg 1 Oaklawn R7
SHE SINGS (9/5) is doing a rain dance. Her two wins
are over off tracks and there's not a cloud in the
sky today at Hot Springs. Toss.
TIZZY GIRL (3) is a frontrunner that closes. My friends
over at the Energy Dept (keilan and cj) can speak to
this better than I can, but this style, stretching-out
on a speed-favoring track spells one thing: BET ME!
KOTA (5/2) is a well-rested grinder with a very
explosive sheet pattern and a huge work since raced.
Have to use.
DIBOLI DILLY (10) won on the stretchout when Lasix
was added. With a month's rest she is poised to move
forward again. Have to use lightly.
Leg 2 Keeneland R8
This one is a little tricky because GOLD STORM (6) looks
to be getting a lone-speed trip and he draws in the
clear. He's a use, but 7f is a limitation.
GATORS N BEARS (6) runs big numbers but doesn't win races.
Still he's a threat and another one to use.
That's the potatoes. Now for the meat:
SIR SHACKLETON (5/2) is from the right barn, at the
right distance and at the right time. This race is
his to lose and prior success here is a plus.
LION TAMER (2) needed that last one when 'Shack took
his measure. Johnny V. gets back on board and like
'Shack a prior winning effort here adds to his
credentials.
Leg 3 Keeneland R9 Blue Grass Stakes
How does Frankel do this? Two months before the Derby
and here comes another non-reputation, non-descript
Monster....HIGH LIMIT (9/5) is the one to beat here.
He will need to repulse SUN KING and SPANISH CHESTNUT
up front and hold off BANDINI and CLOSING ARGUMENT
late. The latter two look like they're still moving
forward and they'll benefit if the pace gets too crazy.
Hence, you have to use them.
Leg 4 Oaklawn R9 Arkansas Derby
OK so AFLEET ALEX (2) had a lung infection. That along
with the front wraps and the repeated two-turn failures
are the reasons to toss him. Never mind that contention
goes deeper than whale sh*t in this heat.
This race is filled with horses that have explosive,
forward-moving development patterns: BATSON CHALLENGE (30)
Thirty! 2nd lasix, great post, good works since raced and
you're going to toss him? Not me. ANDROMEDA'S HERO (10)
Hottest barn this side of Mars and bred in the violet. Good
post and no mud to get in the way today. Use. Now for one
that you're making fun of: CANTEEN (12). Just about the
best bred 3YO running anywhere today and he's technically
a Maiden. See that trainer? See those works since being
DQ'd? Did you know he's eating everything in sight and
knocking the walls down at the barn (I heard that for his
last two works that they had to pony him over to the track
with a Hummer to keep him controlled...). Hint: He will
probably make the lead....still making fun? Now, obviously
you have to use FLOWER ALLEY (9/2). He keeps moving
forward and paying good prices. Might be the horse to
beat with GG's outside post. P Val flies in from SoCal to
get on WILD DESERT (6) but I'm not crazy about his style
here. A small use. Bet you're laughing at CAT SHAKER (30)
huh? Do you know that he hates the mud? But, hey you can't
use them all. Finally, GREATER GOOD (5/2) just wins races.
Two problems with him today. The draw in a 10-horse field
and the pedigree that says nope when the furlongs reach 9.
A small use for me.
So to recap:
Leg 1
TIZZY GIRL (A)
KOTA (A)
DIBOLL DILLY (B)
Leg 2
SIR SHACKLETON (A)
LION TAMER (A)
GATORS N BEARS (B)
GOLD STORM (B)
Leg 3
HIGH LIMIT (A)
BANDINI (A)
CLOSING ARGUMENT (B)
Leg 4
CANTEEN (A)
FLOWER ALLEY (A)
BATSON CHALLENGE (B)
ANDROMEDA'S HERO (B)
WILD DESERT (B)
GREATER GOOD (B)
This is all before scratches and before I figure how to stretch my
bankroll to get some good coverage. But, I'm pretty sure that
we're looking at a nice payout on this P4. Good luck!!