DerbyTrail
04-16-2005, 09:15 AM
Up now on Derby Trail, our Blue Grass/AK Derby/Pick 4 Previews:
http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/DerbyTrail/
Derby Trail Previews:
BLUE GRASS A GREAT RACE, ARK DERBY A GREAT 'BETTING' RACE
Saturday's pair of Derby preps at Keeneland and Oaklawn are both intriguing contests that will impact the starting grid of the 131st Run for the Roses three weeks hence. While the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby will both produce results that help finalize the 20 Derby horses, their respective mystery are totally different.
At Lexington, Sun King, Consolidator and High Limit all are looking for efforts thats that could gain laurels in the prestigous Gr. I Blue Grass without draining the tank for the Derby. Meanwhile, Bandini and Closing Argument enter the starting gate at the pastoral oval in need of graded stakes earnings to gain Derby admittance. Mr. Sword comes to Kentucky needing a home run to get owner Ernie Paragallo back to Churchill, while Spanish Chestnut is entered for more mundane and nefarious reasons. While the outcome will tell us a great deal about some of the top Derby contenders status heading into the first Saturday in May, the event offers little potential for wagering riches.
As the meet at Hot Springs draws to a close, prospects for a much more lucrative plunge will present itself in the $1,000,000, Gr. II Derby in the Ozarks. There, Afleet Alex will try to clarify his rose run role after a difficult six weeks. Bob Holthus' Greater Good looks to sweep the Oaklawn series after successful late runs in the Southwest and Rebel Stakes. Beyond the two top choices, Lane's End exacta pair Flower Alley and Wild Desert loom as serious threats, while a host of late starts and lesser lights fill out the field with hopes of adding Cinderella story to the Derby media frenzy.
The two sophomore standards are offered as part of the second NTRA National Pick 'Em Wager, coupled with the Instant Racing BC at Oaklawn (Leg A) and the Commonwealth BC at Keeneland (Leg B). As we did last week, let's look at the three year old races in depth and offer up a wagering strategy for the "Premier Pick Four".
81st BLUE GRASS, Gr. I, $750,000, 9f, KEE 9th, All 123#
Behind the Derby itself, the Blue Grass stands with the Travers, Wood and Florida Derby as an important race for three year olds. A win in this Keeneland classic has residual value to colts when it comes time negotiate stallion rights and seasons, and its trophy is especially appreciated by trainers and owners. And despite not producing a Derby winner since Thunder Gulch ran in the 1995 edition of the race, it continues to have produced the most donners of rose blankets with 22.
A list of Blue Grass winners that did not taste champagne three weeks later at Churchill reads like a Thoroughbred Who's Who: Skip Away; Holy Bull; Chief's Crown; Arts and Letters; Round Table; Coaltown; Bimelech. It also produced one of racing's most indelible memories: Calumet's aged and infirmed Markey's parked on the track apron for a final chance to see their majestic Alydar win the 1978 version.
1.) MR SWORD (Pederson/Bailey) 30-1: Pederson-Paragallo try again with colt that got leg weary when third at Turfway in Flower Alley's Lane's End. Leaves Arroyo at home this time but doubt Bailey can get more out of son of Rizzi. Stalker draws advantageous rail, is field's only value, and he's run fast enough in Thoro-Graph (TG) figs to hit board. Think distance is biggest obstacle today.
2.) CLOSING ARGUMENT (Mclaughlin/C. Velasquez) 10-1: Despite some setbacks since nice Holy Bull win, colt from Keiran offers some hope for boosting exotics. Had vacationed 60 days leading up to stake score, and duplicates that layoff for this. Ran career best TG fig in initial soph start, a good sign, and draws well for typical near pace style that has never left him out of the money in six start career. With Bandini, the only one here with win at the trip. Worth including.
3.) SPANISH CHESTNUT (Biancone/Stevens) 15-1: All you need to know about his surprising entry of this speed demon, is that he shares ownership with late-running Bandini. When asked about his horse's approach in the race at Thursday's Blue Grass dinner, Biancone said, ":23, :46, :1:09, 1:36, and may the best horse win." Rabbit for Bandini.
4.) CONSOLIDATOR (Lukas/Bejarano) 7-2: First of the "Big 3", Lukas Storm Cat chestnut cruised to new top of "1" in wet-fast annex of San Felipe last month. Certain Derby starter made early mark with Breeders Futurity win this course at 2, his best career effort (TG 3.2) before the Santa Anita heroics. Has worked lights out for Bob and Bev, doesn't require lead, and is tough to pass up at anything close to his ML tab.
5.) HIGH LIMIT (Frankel/Dominguez) 9-5: Maria's Mon LA Derby winner is beinging compared to Frankel's Peace Rules taking identical path towards Louisville as that terrific son of Jules. Both won at New Orleans with 105 Beyers and in nearly identical time, but '03 Derby show pony was making his 8th career start in this event. High Limit is making his fourth. As fast as the one to his left having T-Graphed a "1" in the Big Easy, a pair to his career debut at DEL. Frankel horses rarely bounce early in the season, so expect a similar effort. Though he supposed to rate here ("Ha"), question remains if he can clear Spanish Peanut at the top of the lane and hold off any late callers. Part of the picture, but tough to anoint at 9-5.
6.) SUN KING (Zito/Prado) 2-1: We said after the TB Derby that it looked like this game Charismatic colt worked harder than was widely acknowledged, and whispers to that effect have cropped up this week. GP allowance win over Survivalist and Monarch Lane was a "0" on the charts, making him the fastest in this field. But BC Juvy show horse tried leader's role for first time on Gulf Coast, and Hallandale, Oldsmar, Keeneland map worked well for Nick's Cliff's Edge last year when winning Blue Grass with 20+ point Beyer jump. We were ready to abandon this one, but have reconsidered. Tracy Farmer is the one Zito owner that has yet to taste Gr. I glory. Maybe today.
7.) BANDINI (Pletcher/Velasquez) 4-1: Fountain runner up (High Fly) needs board hit at minimum to gain Derby ducat, but doesn't get best of spots to initiate attempt drawing wide. Also needs to make up some lengths on the top choices here, with FOY Graph fig of 3.3 being "competitive" here at best. Expect Pletcher has him prepared based on local drills after hoof "oof" caused FL Derby defection. But wide trips are costly at this velodrome, and the ones inside of him are going to be tougher to pass than B.B. Best was in Florida. Have concerns.
SELECTIONS:
Value play thoughts: Any combo of the Big 3, who are the fastest here, will bring back small gimmick mutuels. One option is to take the 4/5/6 over the 1/2. If Mr. Sword or Closing Argument get up for second behind one of the choices, the exacta pays well. If leaving Bandini out scares you, cover him with a WP bet.
1. Consolidator
2. Sun King
3. High Limit
4. Bandini
69th ARKANSAS DERBY, Gr. II, $1,000,000, 9f, OP 9th
1.) BATSON CHALLENGE (Vestal/Borel) 118/30-1: Big number on viable inclusion that was more than respectable 3rd in Rebel. Gets rail, knows Calvin, and has paired 6's on Thoro-Graph. Is likely to move forward.
2.) ANDROMEDA'S HERO (Zito/Nakatani) 122/10-1: 5th of Zito's hopefuls took three tries to get back to juvy best TG 5, and now gets Corey and cozy berth for late run. Zito has had success with Nakatani, getting a positive ROI with 17% win clip. Moved forward over sealed Turfway strip in Lane's End, and is bred to run all day.
3.) CANTEEN (Drysdale/Espinoza) 118/12-1: Hancock/Stonerside homebred is late arrival to Derby Trail from FuPeg trainer Drysdale. Had diploma taken away when drifting out in last at SA (second such issue in three start career), a sign of ill health. Half to Strodes Creek.
4.) RUSH BAY (Amoss/Razo) 118/12-1: One of the ones we liked pre-season, Amoss charge regrouped nicely after hopeless 11 hole queered his deal in the Risen Star soph debut. Paired his career best TG fig (4.2) in ALW score over good New Haven Harbor, and gets perfect 5 week break for this. Can stalk and pounce and ideally needs 2nd for Derby try.
5.) FLOWER ALLEY (Pletcher/Chavez) 122/9-2: Lanes End surprise package a different animal since calendar turned and Choppy added, pairing sharp wins and boosting figs. Second fastest here fig-wise, behind Alex, and should get his chance in the stretch. Offers value at ML num.
6.) AFLEET ALEX (Ritchey/Rose) 122/2-1: Toughest call of the day is on this enigmatic five time winner who's campaign has been stranger than a Grateful Dead trip. Is he healthy? Is he capable at 9 panels? Does Rose's return help? Like the mile breeze and 4f blowout last two weeks, but how do you take 2-1 after utter fiasco in last month's Rebel? Your call.
7.) WILD DESERT (McPeek/P. Valenzuela) 118/6-1: Lane's End runner up increasingly has look of a division player for TC training vet and kooky connections. Just gets better and better on Beyer and T-Graph scale with experience and distance, and is sitting pretty for Derby with any check today. May not get ideal set-up pace-wise, but showed ability to stay close and finish last year. Pair up to Turfway fig (3) gets share in this as long as PVal can save some ground.
8.) REAL DANDY (Asmussen/Chapa) 118/20-1: "Lacked rally" in High Limit's LA Derby, but so did any horse that had hoped to close at the Fairgrounds that day. Asmussen bay is yet another steady developer and late runner in a field full of 'em. Needs to step up a notch or two in the figure department, but adds a pilot who knows his way around this oval.
9.) CAT SHAKER (Callis/Bravo) 122/30-1: 39-1 heart attack in the Rushaway gets late Derby nomination and another TV appearence out of the deal. Don't doubt son af Catienus is a nice colt, but reminds us more of Cat Genius (last in this event '03 off listed stake win) than Eugene's Third Son (2nd in same edition out of Lane's End). We'd be curious when Joe Bravo last visited Arkansas..
10.) GREATER GOOD (Holthus/McKee) 5-2: Intidab bay ridgling has garnered little respect despite Hot Springs achievements this year, but has quietly been getting faster (Rebel a new top of 3). Is lone entrant with route win(s) this surface and sports 5/4-0-1 mark at mile and beyond. (And the third came when he had to pull a National Velvet over fallen horse in the Iroquois). Wide berth hurts him less than most, but with questionable pace up front Mini Me will need to work out a voyage. Hard to find fault with the Cris Carter of racehorses: "All he does is catch touchdowns".
SELECTIONS:
If the Blue Grass lacks as a wagering contest, this AK Derby should compensate... A myriad of choices once you decide what to do with Afleet Alex and figure out a pace scenario.
1. Flower Alley
2. Greater Good
3. Rush Bay
4. Wild Desert
Exotic Players:
Andromeda's Hero
Batson Challenge
THE PREMIER PICK FOUR
Leg A: Tizzy Girl (4)
Leg B: Sir Shakleton (1), Lion Tamer (5)
Leg C: Consolidator (4), High Limit (5), Sun King (6)
Leg D: Rush Bay (4), Flower Alley (5), Wild Desert (7), Greater Good
(10)
1x2x3x4 = $24
http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/DerbyTrail/
Derby Trail Previews:
BLUE GRASS A GREAT RACE, ARK DERBY A GREAT 'BETTING' RACE
Saturday's pair of Derby preps at Keeneland and Oaklawn are both intriguing contests that will impact the starting grid of the 131st Run for the Roses three weeks hence. While the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby will both produce results that help finalize the 20 Derby horses, their respective mystery are totally different.
At Lexington, Sun King, Consolidator and High Limit all are looking for efforts thats that could gain laurels in the prestigous Gr. I Blue Grass without draining the tank for the Derby. Meanwhile, Bandini and Closing Argument enter the starting gate at the pastoral oval in need of graded stakes earnings to gain Derby admittance. Mr. Sword comes to Kentucky needing a home run to get owner Ernie Paragallo back to Churchill, while Spanish Chestnut is entered for more mundane and nefarious reasons. While the outcome will tell us a great deal about some of the top Derby contenders status heading into the first Saturday in May, the event offers little potential for wagering riches.
As the meet at Hot Springs draws to a close, prospects for a much more lucrative plunge will present itself in the $1,000,000, Gr. II Derby in the Ozarks. There, Afleet Alex will try to clarify his rose run role after a difficult six weeks. Bob Holthus' Greater Good looks to sweep the Oaklawn series after successful late runs in the Southwest and Rebel Stakes. Beyond the two top choices, Lane's End exacta pair Flower Alley and Wild Desert loom as serious threats, while a host of late starts and lesser lights fill out the field with hopes of adding Cinderella story to the Derby media frenzy.
The two sophomore standards are offered as part of the second NTRA National Pick 'Em Wager, coupled with the Instant Racing BC at Oaklawn (Leg A) and the Commonwealth BC at Keeneland (Leg B). As we did last week, let's look at the three year old races in depth and offer up a wagering strategy for the "Premier Pick Four".
81st BLUE GRASS, Gr. I, $750,000, 9f, KEE 9th, All 123#
Behind the Derby itself, the Blue Grass stands with the Travers, Wood and Florida Derby as an important race for three year olds. A win in this Keeneland classic has residual value to colts when it comes time negotiate stallion rights and seasons, and its trophy is especially appreciated by trainers and owners. And despite not producing a Derby winner since Thunder Gulch ran in the 1995 edition of the race, it continues to have produced the most donners of rose blankets with 22.
A list of Blue Grass winners that did not taste champagne three weeks later at Churchill reads like a Thoroughbred Who's Who: Skip Away; Holy Bull; Chief's Crown; Arts and Letters; Round Table; Coaltown; Bimelech. It also produced one of racing's most indelible memories: Calumet's aged and infirmed Markey's parked on the track apron for a final chance to see their majestic Alydar win the 1978 version.
1.) MR SWORD (Pederson/Bailey) 30-1: Pederson-Paragallo try again with colt that got leg weary when third at Turfway in Flower Alley's Lane's End. Leaves Arroyo at home this time but doubt Bailey can get more out of son of Rizzi. Stalker draws advantageous rail, is field's only value, and he's run fast enough in Thoro-Graph (TG) figs to hit board. Think distance is biggest obstacle today.
2.) CLOSING ARGUMENT (Mclaughlin/C. Velasquez) 10-1: Despite some setbacks since nice Holy Bull win, colt from Keiran offers some hope for boosting exotics. Had vacationed 60 days leading up to stake score, and duplicates that layoff for this. Ran career best TG fig in initial soph start, a good sign, and draws well for typical near pace style that has never left him out of the money in six start career. With Bandini, the only one here with win at the trip. Worth including.
3.) SPANISH CHESTNUT (Biancone/Stevens) 15-1: All you need to know about his surprising entry of this speed demon, is that he shares ownership with late-running Bandini. When asked about his horse's approach in the race at Thursday's Blue Grass dinner, Biancone said, ":23, :46, :1:09, 1:36, and may the best horse win." Rabbit for Bandini.
4.) CONSOLIDATOR (Lukas/Bejarano) 7-2: First of the "Big 3", Lukas Storm Cat chestnut cruised to new top of "1" in wet-fast annex of San Felipe last month. Certain Derby starter made early mark with Breeders Futurity win this course at 2, his best career effort (TG 3.2) before the Santa Anita heroics. Has worked lights out for Bob and Bev, doesn't require lead, and is tough to pass up at anything close to his ML tab.
5.) HIGH LIMIT (Frankel/Dominguez) 9-5: Maria's Mon LA Derby winner is beinging compared to Frankel's Peace Rules taking identical path towards Louisville as that terrific son of Jules. Both won at New Orleans with 105 Beyers and in nearly identical time, but '03 Derby show pony was making his 8th career start in this event. High Limit is making his fourth. As fast as the one to his left having T-Graphed a "1" in the Big Easy, a pair to his career debut at DEL. Frankel horses rarely bounce early in the season, so expect a similar effort. Though he supposed to rate here ("Ha"), question remains if he can clear Spanish Peanut at the top of the lane and hold off any late callers. Part of the picture, but tough to anoint at 9-5.
6.) SUN KING (Zito/Prado) 2-1: We said after the TB Derby that it looked like this game Charismatic colt worked harder than was widely acknowledged, and whispers to that effect have cropped up this week. GP allowance win over Survivalist and Monarch Lane was a "0" on the charts, making him the fastest in this field. But BC Juvy show horse tried leader's role for first time on Gulf Coast, and Hallandale, Oldsmar, Keeneland map worked well for Nick's Cliff's Edge last year when winning Blue Grass with 20+ point Beyer jump. We were ready to abandon this one, but have reconsidered. Tracy Farmer is the one Zito owner that has yet to taste Gr. I glory. Maybe today.
7.) BANDINI (Pletcher/Velasquez) 4-1: Fountain runner up (High Fly) needs board hit at minimum to gain Derby ducat, but doesn't get best of spots to initiate attempt drawing wide. Also needs to make up some lengths on the top choices here, with FOY Graph fig of 3.3 being "competitive" here at best. Expect Pletcher has him prepared based on local drills after hoof "oof" caused FL Derby defection. But wide trips are costly at this velodrome, and the ones inside of him are going to be tougher to pass than B.B. Best was in Florida. Have concerns.
SELECTIONS:
Value play thoughts: Any combo of the Big 3, who are the fastest here, will bring back small gimmick mutuels. One option is to take the 4/5/6 over the 1/2. If Mr. Sword or Closing Argument get up for second behind one of the choices, the exacta pays well. If leaving Bandini out scares you, cover him with a WP bet.
1. Consolidator
2. Sun King
3. High Limit
4. Bandini
69th ARKANSAS DERBY, Gr. II, $1,000,000, 9f, OP 9th
1.) BATSON CHALLENGE (Vestal/Borel) 118/30-1: Big number on viable inclusion that was more than respectable 3rd in Rebel. Gets rail, knows Calvin, and has paired 6's on Thoro-Graph. Is likely to move forward.
2.) ANDROMEDA'S HERO (Zito/Nakatani) 122/10-1: 5th of Zito's hopefuls took three tries to get back to juvy best TG 5, and now gets Corey and cozy berth for late run. Zito has had success with Nakatani, getting a positive ROI with 17% win clip. Moved forward over sealed Turfway strip in Lane's End, and is bred to run all day.
3.) CANTEEN (Drysdale/Espinoza) 118/12-1: Hancock/Stonerside homebred is late arrival to Derby Trail from FuPeg trainer Drysdale. Had diploma taken away when drifting out in last at SA (second such issue in three start career), a sign of ill health. Half to Strodes Creek.
4.) RUSH BAY (Amoss/Razo) 118/12-1: One of the ones we liked pre-season, Amoss charge regrouped nicely after hopeless 11 hole queered his deal in the Risen Star soph debut. Paired his career best TG fig (4.2) in ALW score over good New Haven Harbor, and gets perfect 5 week break for this. Can stalk and pounce and ideally needs 2nd for Derby try.
5.) FLOWER ALLEY (Pletcher/Chavez) 122/9-2: Lanes End surprise package a different animal since calendar turned and Choppy added, pairing sharp wins and boosting figs. Second fastest here fig-wise, behind Alex, and should get his chance in the stretch. Offers value at ML num.
6.) AFLEET ALEX (Ritchey/Rose) 122/2-1: Toughest call of the day is on this enigmatic five time winner who's campaign has been stranger than a Grateful Dead trip. Is he healthy? Is he capable at 9 panels? Does Rose's return help? Like the mile breeze and 4f blowout last two weeks, but how do you take 2-1 after utter fiasco in last month's Rebel? Your call.
7.) WILD DESERT (McPeek/P. Valenzuela) 118/6-1: Lane's End runner up increasingly has look of a division player for TC training vet and kooky connections. Just gets better and better on Beyer and T-Graph scale with experience and distance, and is sitting pretty for Derby with any check today. May not get ideal set-up pace-wise, but showed ability to stay close and finish last year. Pair up to Turfway fig (3) gets share in this as long as PVal can save some ground.
8.) REAL DANDY (Asmussen/Chapa) 118/20-1: "Lacked rally" in High Limit's LA Derby, but so did any horse that had hoped to close at the Fairgrounds that day. Asmussen bay is yet another steady developer and late runner in a field full of 'em. Needs to step up a notch or two in the figure department, but adds a pilot who knows his way around this oval.
9.) CAT SHAKER (Callis/Bravo) 122/30-1: 39-1 heart attack in the Rushaway gets late Derby nomination and another TV appearence out of the deal. Don't doubt son af Catienus is a nice colt, but reminds us more of Cat Genius (last in this event '03 off listed stake win) than Eugene's Third Son (2nd in same edition out of Lane's End). We'd be curious when Joe Bravo last visited Arkansas..
10.) GREATER GOOD (Holthus/McKee) 5-2: Intidab bay ridgling has garnered little respect despite Hot Springs achievements this year, but has quietly been getting faster (Rebel a new top of 3). Is lone entrant with route win(s) this surface and sports 5/4-0-1 mark at mile and beyond. (And the third came when he had to pull a National Velvet over fallen horse in the Iroquois). Wide berth hurts him less than most, but with questionable pace up front Mini Me will need to work out a voyage. Hard to find fault with the Cris Carter of racehorses: "All he does is catch touchdowns".
SELECTIONS:
If the Blue Grass lacks as a wagering contest, this AK Derby should compensate... A myriad of choices once you decide what to do with Afleet Alex and figure out a pace scenario.
1. Flower Alley
2. Greater Good
3. Rush Bay
4. Wild Desert
Exotic Players:
Andromeda's Hero
Batson Challenge
THE PREMIER PICK FOUR
Leg A: Tizzy Girl (4)
Leg B: Sir Shakleton (1), Lion Tamer (5)
Leg C: Consolidator (4), High Limit (5), Sun King (6)
Leg D: Rush Bay (4), Flower Alley (5), Wild Desert (7), Greater Good
(10)
1x2x3x4 = $24