derby pace figs

[robbierobb]

can anyone tell me if their pace come out like this from what I see
mel d oro and budda have identical figs in at about the 2nd call
119 and what I see is sunday break and as the two coming to mow em down.harlans holiday seems to be declining at the 2nd call on maybe he shot his load.
this very well looks like a "wood" tripple and superfecta
please let me know how different your figs are they the more
knowledge the better.

[superfecta]

I can see the Wood being the strongest race,but since I only have done pace figs for the winners of the Wood,BG ,Ark derby and the Lexington,I can't get too specific about the other horses that finished ITM.When the early Derby pps. come out I will do a more in depth look.But one thing I do see,I agree,Harlan does look like he will be running out of gas running that next 1/8.Thats

[Observer]

Does anyone see Buddha and/or Medaglia d'Oro (and even Sunday Break .. if he gets in) regressing off such a hard Wood Memorial effort? These are all lightly raced horses, especially Buddha and Medaglia d'Oro, who both go into the Derby with just four prior starts each. Making such a demanding start after such a grueling race, I wonder just how much more they have to give. Of course, I do believe Medaglia d'Oro might be able to handle the grind a little better simply because of how big and sturdy he looks, as opposed to Buddha and Sunday Break.

[cj]

My guess is it is just what they needed. Horses are all different, but for a similiar occurrence, take a look at Silver Charm's PPs (available in the DRF Kentucky Derby section). He ran super fast, was lightly raced, and still managed to follow with Derby success. He did have an extra week off, but I don't think one week would cause a huge difference. Free House also ran strong in that same Derby.

CJ

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Observer
Does anyone see Buddha and/or Medaglia d'Oro (and even Sunday Break .. if he gets in) regressing off such a hard Wood Memorial effort? These are all lightly raced horses, especially Buddha and Medaglia d'Oro, who both go into the Derby with just four prior starts each. Making such a demanding start after such a grueling race, I wonder just how much more they have to give. Of course, I do believe Medaglia d'Oro might be able to handle the grind a little better simply because of how big and sturdy he looks, as opposed to Buddha and Sunday Break. Possible,but history has held in the last few derbys,the winner has been ITM in his last race.Since the Wood is the strongest of the preps,it would make sense the winner can come out of this race.But if they peaked on this race,then it becomes more wide open.Sunday Break might not make it in,so I'm looking at others to finish ITM.Budda looks strong,but I'm gonna look more at others to compete for the tri and super at a price.

[PaceAdvantage]

Was the Derby Silver Charm's 5th llifetime start?

[rrbauer]

PA wrote:
Was the Derby Silver Charm's 5th llifetime start?

7th start.

Remember folks. These are 3YO that haven't even reached their maturity as race horses yet. They are still developing and one of two things usually happens on Derby Day. Some prove that they belong with this group going 1 1/4 miles. Some prove that they don't belong with this group going 1 1/4 miles.

The rest are victims of their trip and don't prove anything!

When they draw the post positions and when you know what the track condition will be (and remember how in recent years when there is good weather, CD has that track souped up) and when you know how different horses have taken to the CD surface in their works.....then it makes sense to try and handicap the race.

[Tom]

Silver Charm's Beyers going into the Derby.....

77
95
97
--------------------------------
110 (1st race of 1997)
102 (1st route)
110 (SA Derby)
115 (Derby)

[andicap]

Silver Charm has one more week recovery time going into the Derby than the Wood horses. This could be significant.

Is there any sign that the pace figs for the Wood are out of whack for BRIS? 118, that's pretty high. Seems unreal.

[Tom]

andicap,
I give the Wood Quirin numbers of 135-115 raw, and the variant doesn't seem to too high for that day. Problem is, there was only one 9 furlong route that day. The pace was extreme. the final time average. They were slowing down and I think that pace will have long lasting effects if is real. Tom Brohamer gives the Wood a 116-112 on a 110 par. I don't agree with those numbers, but if they are the real ones, then the Wood contenders look soild next Saturday.
Congaree ran the same fraction last year and came home a couple of ticks faster.

[Observer]

I've also been looking at the BRIS figures, and was surprised to see how high the E2 rating was on the horses for the Wood Memorial .. then got to thinking .. with the claims of a 25mph head wind in the homestretch .. that would translate into a 25mph tail wind in the backstretch ... and maybe that's what pushed these horses along into better numbers than they would have gotten otherwise.

Could it be that the front-runners of the Wood Memorial were the beneficiaries of this scenario, and the closers who were taken back instead of coasting with that tailwind suffered??

Maybe the Derby winner will again come from the Wood Memorial for the third straight year, but I will not be looking at Buddha or Medaglia d'Oro .. primarily because of their light experience, but also because I don't see the Wood as having been the perfect prep for them. According to BRIS numbers, they've gone through their three-race form cycle, with a peak in the Wood Memorial. There is hardly a horse pointing for the Derby who has run increasingly better numbers through more than three races. And I do not count when a horse has run better numbers which includes a layoff line. For them to go forward again for such a tough, grueling race like the Kentucky Derby, in my opinion, seems unlikely to happen.