Bellamy Road

[cadillac pete]

Watching his performance in the Wood, makes me draw comparisons to Spend A Buck. I think they are very similar. Big, fast and can run all day. I wouldn't be surprised to see him wire the Derby field.

[Zaf]

I wonder what odds he will go off in the Derby. If he's 2-1 or less that would produce some serious overlays on the board.

ZAFONIC

[cadillac pete]

I would say he'll go to the post as the fav. All the Zito horses will be getting attention and drawing $ at the windows. 3 or 4-1 would be my guess.

[Valuist]

Remember that horse that won the Blue Grass a few years ago with a huge Beyer, something like a 114 or 115? I think his named was Millenium something, maybe Millenium Road? I'm not saying Bellamy Road will flop like that but before we annoint him with the Triple Crown I'd like to see him take some pace pressure. His Allw win at GP was over a small field where he was lone speed. There figures to be some horses running at him early in the Derby.

[OTM Al]

He's got the tools, but I would worry the most about his experience. He may need a little growing up time before he starts to score in the more highly contested races ala Rock Hard Ten

[cadillac pete]

Ever since that grueling pace set in the 2001 Derby, where Monarchos circled the field and just blew by all the top level runners after they fell apart, the past three Derby's have been run pretty conservativly w/ really no heavy pressure on the front runners. 2002 War Emblem ran his race and won easily w/ speed. I believe he and Proud Citizen were 1-2 the whole way. 2003 Funny Cide was never really 3 lengths off the lead and ran togetther w/ Peace Rules, and last yr Smarty stalked and pounced Lion Heart from 1-2 lengths back. With modest to slow fractions being set up front, not a lot is being taken out of these horses who run this type of style. That being 1-3 lengths from the lead. This compromises the closers obviously. I think w/ High Fly, High Limit, and Bellemy Road, we'll see modest fractions, each being afraid to burn too much too earlly. All three I think can relax close to the lead, but Bellemy Road has shown an ability to go from relax mode to speed mode in a hurry. These two others mentioned above I feel don't possess that knack. His speed will be the difference and will draw off.

[Speed Figure]

Remember that horse that won the Blue Grass a few years ago with a huge Beyer, something like a 114 or 115? I think his named was Millenium something, maybe Millenium Road? I'm not saying Bellamy Road will flop like that but before we annoint him with the Triple Crown I'd like to see him take some pace pressure. His Allw win at GP was over a small field where he was lone speed. There figures to be some horses running at him early in the Derby.
That horse was Millennium Wind. Any horse that runs big at KEE I look at with a ?. For me, horses that run a +16 from there last start that are lower than 7/2 I just don't use them. He ran a +24 from his race at GP to his race at AQU.

[Wiley]

Physically I too see similarities with Spend a Buck, large, freakishly fast, bred to go long, doing it on his own with that smooth efficient stride. The Buck had been to the wars as a two year old and had a very solid three year old campaign but did avoid the top tier by running for bonuses in New Jersey but running very fast in his preps something like 1/5 off the world record for 1 mile and an eight.
Like others question Bellamy Road's experience, foundation, what happens when he is hooked, if High Limit goes in KD it could happen or if the track is like recent years they run one two the whole way ala War Emblem and Proud Citizen. The same question marks for BR can be made for High Limit or even more so with HL having less of a foundation and with a little more questionable distance breeding.

Valuist,
Millenium Wind came to the Derby with some physical problems and cannot remember him running thereafter, not that he was going to wire that Derby anyway. That was the Monarchos out of control paced race.

Funny, Spend a Buck as a 2 year old won the Cradle stakes at RD like Bellamy Road.

[Valuist]

Maybe true the past three years but lets go back a ways. While its true horses on the lead at the 1/8th pole generally hold on to win in the Derby, many of these have been fairly deep closers. 2001-Monarchos: closer 2000: Fusaichi Pegasus- closer 1999: Charismatic-closer 1998-Real Quiet- stalker 1997-Silver Charm- up close 1996-Grindstone-closer 1995- Thunder Gulch- up close/stalker? 1994- Go for Gin: near lead 1993-Sea Hero- closer 1992: Lil E Tee-closer 1991: Strike the Gold- closer 1990- Unbridled- closer 1989-Sunday Silence- up close 1988-Winning Colors- wire to wire 1987-Alysheba- closer 1986-Ferdinand- closer 1985- Spend a Buck- wire to wire

In the past 20 years, closers have done pretty good. The last 3 years have been a change, but maybe only a brief overreaction to the absurd pace set in 2001.

[cj]

Remember that horse that won the Blue Grass a few years ago with a huge Beyer, something like a 114 or 115? ...

Keeneland is one strange track. I routinely discount front running Keeneland winners when they ship out, and bet back those that don't run as well. I'm not just talking about a bias either, the figures just never seem to hold up when they ship somewhere else.

[Valuist]

I don't think The Cliff's Edge ever ran back to that Blue Grass number last year. There's been some strange happenings in that race; Wild Syn beating both Thunder Gulch and Tejano Run, Taylor's Special actually lasting 9 furlongs. I think War beat Alysheba back in 87 also. Certainly Millenium Wind's race was a once in a lifetime race for him.

[cj]

You could create quite a long list of Blue Grass winners that flopped in the Derby the past few decades. I don't mean just losing, but running way up the track at lowish odds.