NMNowak
04-27-2002, 12:40 AM
I have been a lurker on this web site for a long time and I am coming out of the shadows now for somewhat selfish and somewhat noble reasons. Of course being a lurker I have no way of proving my long-term lurking status. I will say though, I have been around long enough to remember a crazy character by the name a Scoopcone from the old board who went the way of astrology. Anyway, about six months ago I decided to take a break from horse racing and this board.
I got started in horse racing about three years ago. I was a few years out of college and I had worked various jobs since leaving, none of which I could stand to stay at for longer than six months. No matter where I went I felt like I was serving some sort of jail sentence and I decided there was no way I was going to wait until I was 65 to be paroled. I honestly considered if I would be happier living on the streets or running away to some remote wilderness location just so I could have my freedom.
My first hope of having my sentence reduced came when I found a book about card counting. However, living in the Midwest is not conducive to card counting because the density of casinos is not enough to allow a person to practice the trade while going unnoticed. So with the allure of being a professional gambler in my mind I turned to horse racing. I figured since the house didn’t care whether I won or lost it would be the way to go. I read a few books on it and started dreaming about my wonderful and prosperous future. However, I quickly realized that the game is not as easy to beat as some authors make it out to be. I quit betting and started looking for more information. In fact it’s at that point that I came across this site. I continued reading books on handicapping and started building my own database.
I spent countless hours looking for that key piece of the handicapping puzzle that would reveal the entire picture to me. I studied chaos theory, neural networks, game theory, and a myriad of other things in the quest for that Holy Grail. After three years of searching I was burned out so I took a break.
During my break, I came to two conclusions. One, I was addicted to the study of handicapping. Just as some gamblers chase their loses by throwing good money after bad I was chasing my time by spending more time searching for answers to make all the time I had already invested worth something. It can be hard to look in the mirror and admit that you have wasted three years of your life. That may be an overly brutal interpretation because I did learn many valuable things in my quest for horse racing gold but there is too much truth in the statement for me to ignore it.
My other realization was something I kind of already knew but didn’t fully internalize. The fact is horse racing is a zero sum game. The track is a guaranteed winner through the take and the patrons divide up the rest of the pie. This does not mean a patron cannot win but what it does mean is that I cannot win unless somebody else loses.
For some people on this board that last statement may not mean much. They may be of the opinion that the whole world is a zero-sum game so someone always wins and someone always loses. They may feel that the losers get their money’s worth in entertainment value even though they are already paying the track for said entertainment. Some may even be of the opinion that since everybody knew the rules going in they cannot be expected to feel bad for someone else’s losses. These may be the same people who can sell a beer to an alcoholic with a clear conscience.
I am not trying to say horse racing is evil. I will probably go to my local track a few times this year and I am looking forward to watching the Kentucky Derby. I still enjoy the intellectual challenge of digging through my database. Maybe someday I will stumble upon that elusive secret that will not only help me better understand horse racing but also the universe we live in. If push came to shove I would probably even be willing to concede that the world is a bit more wondrous place because we have this beautiful sport.
The point is that for me, I was not willing to pursue a career in which the only way I could prosper was at the expense of others. No matter how I tried, I could not rationalize how me being a professional handicapper would make the world a better place. Some people rationalize their play by saying that it is a hobby they enjoy that costs a lot less than most people’s hobbies or that pays for itself in the case of successful handicappers. For me that argument wasn’t good enough either. I put the whole thing to the test by honestly asking myself if I would have invested all the time I did into this venture if I knew I would never win any money. I had to answer no.
Even if I cared about nothing but making money and horse racing provided me a way to do that I had to admit to myself that there were countless better ways that I could make more money than I could ever hope to make at horse racing. Pari-mutuel wagering has a forced diminishing return setup. If I increase my bet size I am assured of having a lower ROI.
So, why am I telling you all of this? Because, once I removed my blinkers I was able to start seeing some of the real possibilities this world offers. I believe it is possible to have a true win-win situation. I believe that a person can have anything they want in this world if they just help enough other people get what they want. I am here on the chance that what I am saying resonates with someone else. I am here on the chance that I can help someone realize a dream that horse racing promises but will never deliver.
You may dismiss all I have said as the lament of another loser and think that things are different for you. Maybe they are. I will say that during my six-month hiatus from horse racing my only income was from my poker winnings. I was a professional gambler for six glorious months and I hated it just as much as every other job I have had. It was a hollow victory because it did not bring the freedom I so desperately wanted it just made me a slave under different circumstances.
I still have more questions about this world than I have answers but if you see some of yourself in what I have said please, take the time to contact me directly. I can’t promise you easy riches the way horse racing does but maybe I can help you find something better. Thank you for letting me get this off my chest and I wish for all of you all that you wish for yourselves.
Sincerely,
NMNowak@att.net
I got started in horse racing about three years ago. I was a few years out of college and I had worked various jobs since leaving, none of which I could stand to stay at for longer than six months. No matter where I went I felt like I was serving some sort of jail sentence and I decided there was no way I was going to wait until I was 65 to be paroled. I honestly considered if I would be happier living on the streets or running away to some remote wilderness location just so I could have my freedom.
My first hope of having my sentence reduced came when I found a book about card counting. However, living in the Midwest is not conducive to card counting because the density of casinos is not enough to allow a person to practice the trade while going unnoticed. So with the allure of being a professional gambler in my mind I turned to horse racing. I figured since the house didn’t care whether I won or lost it would be the way to go. I read a few books on it and started dreaming about my wonderful and prosperous future. However, I quickly realized that the game is not as easy to beat as some authors make it out to be. I quit betting and started looking for more information. In fact it’s at that point that I came across this site. I continued reading books on handicapping and started building my own database.
I spent countless hours looking for that key piece of the handicapping puzzle that would reveal the entire picture to me. I studied chaos theory, neural networks, game theory, and a myriad of other things in the quest for that Holy Grail. After three years of searching I was burned out so I took a break.
During my break, I came to two conclusions. One, I was addicted to the study of handicapping. Just as some gamblers chase their loses by throwing good money after bad I was chasing my time by spending more time searching for answers to make all the time I had already invested worth something. It can be hard to look in the mirror and admit that you have wasted three years of your life. That may be an overly brutal interpretation because I did learn many valuable things in my quest for horse racing gold but there is too much truth in the statement for me to ignore it.
My other realization was something I kind of already knew but didn’t fully internalize. The fact is horse racing is a zero sum game. The track is a guaranteed winner through the take and the patrons divide up the rest of the pie. This does not mean a patron cannot win but what it does mean is that I cannot win unless somebody else loses.
For some people on this board that last statement may not mean much. They may be of the opinion that the whole world is a zero-sum game so someone always wins and someone always loses. They may feel that the losers get their money’s worth in entertainment value even though they are already paying the track for said entertainment. Some may even be of the opinion that since everybody knew the rules going in they cannot be expected to feel bad for someone else’s losses. These may be the same people who can sell a beer to an alcoholic with a clear conscience.
I am not trying to say horse racing is evil. I will probably go to my local track a few times this year and I am looking forward to watching the Kentucky Derby. I still enjoy the intellectual challenge of digging through my database. Maybe someday I will stumble upon that elusive secret that will not only help me better understand horse racing but also the universe we live in. If push came to shove I would probably even be willing to concede that the world is a bit more wondrous place because we have this beautiful sport.
The point is that for me, I was not willing to pursue a career in which the only way I could prosper was at the expense of others. No matter how I tried, I could not rationalize how me being a professional handicapper would make the world a better place. Some people rationalize their play by saying that it is a hobby they enjoy that costs a lot less than most people’s hobbies or that pays for itself in the case of successful handicappers. For me that argument wasn’t good enough either. I put the whole thing to the test by honestly asking myself if I would have invested all the time I did into this venture if I knew I would never win any money. I had to answer no.
Even if I cared about nothing but making money and horse racing provided me a way to do that I had to admit to myself that there were countless better ways that I could make more money than I could ever hope to make at horse racing. Pari-mutuel wagering has a forced diminishing return setup. If I increase my bet size I am assured of having a lower ROI.
So, why am I telling you all of this? Because, once I removed my blinkers I was able to start seeing some of the real possibilities this world offers. I believe it is possible to have a true win-win situation. I believe that a person can have anything they want in this world if they just help enough other people get what they want. I am here on the chance that what I am saying resonates with someone else. I am here on the chance that I can help someone realize a dream that horse racing promises but will never deliver.
You may dismiss all I have said as the lament of another loser and think that things are different for you. Maybe they are. I will say that during my six-month hiatus from horse racing my only income was from my poker winnings. I was a professional gambler for six glorious months and I hated it just as much as every other job I have had. It was a hollow victory because it did not bring the freedom I so desperately wanted it just made me a slave under different circumstances.
I still have more questions about this world than I have answers but if you see some of yourself in what I have said please, take the time to contact me directly. I can’t promise you easy riches the way horse racing does but maybe I can help you find something better. Thank you for letting me get this off my chest and I wish for all of you all that you wish for yourselves.
Sincerely,
NMNowak@att.net