DrugSalvastore
04-12-2005, 01:56 AM
It's the current president who called North Korea, Iran, and Iraq the "axis of evil." That said, when it comes to handicapping, I think you can call the Backside, the Press Box, and the Jockey quarters at a track The Axis of Incompetence.
I'll start off with the Press. If I ever become dictator of the USA, the first thing I will do is round up all of the press in our country and deport them to Cambodia (which is where they belong!) I will have the old press replaced by all the homeless people in the country--thus solving our domestic homelessness crisis. You'd just be replacing lazy drunks with lazy drunks...and surely the homeless people couldn't do a worse job than the current press has over the last few years. The racing press isn't that much better than the sporting press or the news press--it has a few shining stars (in perticular a certain Washington Post veteran) but for the most part these guys are lazy, dreadful, and boring. When you consider the vast amount of information these guys have access to, you'd expect them to produce stuff that is impressive. Instead you get crap. A lot of these guys are just terrible handicapper's.
You would think that the people on the backside of a track would have an advantage, from a handicapping standpoint, because they are always around the horses and always following the races. It sounds good in theory---but it isn't true. For the most part, these guys are more clueless than the dopes sitting in the press box. I was at Churchill Downs at this time last year, living with and working for a veteran trainer who was just a real nice guy. He had a real impressive trophy room in his house--he'd won the Ky Oaks among many other stakes, he had a picture of one stakes win where his horse beat both Bet Twice and Gulch in the same race--but when it came down to handicapping skills--the man had none! He's been racing horses at KEE for over a decade...so you can imagine how shocked I was when he told me he knew nothing about KEE's tendancy to favor inside-speed types. He actually scratched a very speedy horse out of a sprint race at KEE because he drew post one. His explanation was "I don't like breaking from the rail with a horse who needs the lead--if he breaks real bad, from that post, than you can get in a lot of trouble." Instead of going off about how bad an idea it is to scratch the consensus pick in the form--because his speed horse drew post one at KEE--I just politley said O.K. The grooms and hotwalkers aren't exactly geniuses either. They are poor, hard-working, and more likeable than the press--but beyond the horses they work with everyday, they don't know much. Trainers Bobby Frankel and Tom Amoss are glaring exceptions--both excellent all-around handicappers.
The Jockey's are about as bad as it gets. I made it a point to go around asking them whom they thought would win the Derby last year--though a few did say Smarty Jones--Pollard's Vision ended up being the consensus pick. A few (Bailey in perticular) are reasonably sharp--many of them will tell you that they are just plain bad handicappers. It's no surprise that they have agents.
It's no fun to write a long post like this---and I don't get as much pleasure from bashing these guys as it may seem--but I think people who pay too much respect to the buzz from the backside, press box, or jock's room are people who are doomed to fail. I think you can learn a lot more from a message board like this one. But one thing to remember, is that just because someone says something, doesn't make it true. If you hear something interesting--I'd advise you to do your own research and come up with your own conclusion.
And please, none of you liberals should jump on me for opening with a Bush quote. I'm a libertarian--but one that leans way left. The kind that certain GOP congressman like to call "Liberal-tarians." We are the good guys who want drugs decriminilized:)
I'll start off with the Press. If I ever become dictator of the USA, the first thing I will do is round up all of the press in our country and deport them to Cambodia (which is where they belong!) I will have the old press replaced by all the homeless people in the country--thus solving our domestic homelessness crisis. You'd just be replacing lazy drunks with lazy drunks...and surely the homeless people couldn't do a worse job than the current press has over the last few years. The racing press isn't that much better than the sporting press or the news press--it has a few shining stars (in perticular a certain Washington Post veteran) but for the most part these guys are lazy, dreadful, and boring. When you consider the vast amount of information these guys have access to, you'd expect them to produce stuff that is impressive. Instead you get crap. A lot of these guys are just terrible handicapper's.
You would think that the people on the backside of a track would have an advantage, from a handicapping standpoint, because they are always around the horses and always following the races. It sounds good in theory---but it isn't true. For the most part, these guys are more clueless than the dopes sitting in the press box. I was at Churchill Downs at this time last year, living with and working for a veteran trainer who was just a real nice guy. He had a real impressive trophy room in his house--he'd won the Ky Oaks among many other stakes, he had a picture of one stakes win where his horse beat both Bet Twice and Gulch in the same race--but when it came down to handicapping skills--the man had none! He's been racing horses at KEE for over a decade...so you can imagine how shocked I was when he told me he knew nothing about KEE's tendancy to favor inside-speed types. He actually scratched a very speedy horse out of a sprint race at KEE because he drew post one. His explanation was "I don't like breaking from the rail with a horse who needs the lead--if he breaks real bad, from that post, than you can get in a lot of trouble." Instead of going off about how bad an idea it is to scratch the consensus pick in the form--because his speed horse drew post one at KEE--I just politley said O.K. The grooms and hotwalkers aren't exactly geniuses either. They are poor, hard-working, and more likeable than the press--but beyond the horses they work with everyday, they don't know much. Trainers Bobby Frankel and Tom Amoss are glaring exceptions--both excellent all-around handicappers.
The Jockey's are about as bad as it gets. I made it a point to go around asking them whom they thought would win the Derby last year--though a few did say Smarty Jones--Pollard's Vision ended up being the consensus pick. A few (Bailey in perticular) are reasonably sharp--many of them will tell you that they are just plain bad handicappers. It's no surprise that they have agents.
It's no fun to write a long post like this---and I don't get as much pleasure from bashing these guys as it may seem--but I think people who pay too much respect to the buzz from the backside, press box, or jock's room are people who are doomed to fail. I think you can learn a lot more from a message board like this one. But one thing to remember, is that just because someone says something, doesn't make it true. If you hear something interesting--I'd advise you to do your own research and come up with your own conclusion.
And please, none of you liberals should jump on me for opening with a Bush quote. I'm a libertarian--but one that leans way left. The kind that certain GOP congressman like to call "Liberal-tarians." We are the good guys who want drugs decriminilized:)