Key Races

[smf]

I thought the next post from me about KR's s/b in a new thread. I know JimG w/ like to hear other's opinions about his questions on betting strategy, and I went off in another direction (sorry, Jim).

Karl, (and anyone else interested)

I used to track KR's for LS, LAD, FG years ago but found that LaD was the best/ most effective of those since the meet was long and had a trainer colony that was constant unlike LS, FG. But, tracking turf and maidens via KR's was always a good tool wherever I charted KR's.

What busted the bubble for me here was when AP re-opened in June 2000. Lot of future LS plays shipped out to Chicago at the end of May as I recall. Really busted the angle for LS. FG was a hit and miss situation for a variety of reasons but KR's still worked well w/ turfers.

After reading your posts about KR's months ago, I charted KR's at LRL w/ some success but less so than even LS, FG b/c of the shippers and day trippers from eastern tracks. Still I found solid confirmation on some of my "claim" plays and that's always a good thing.

Karl, thanks for the reminder on KR's.

You might be interested to know that a track I'm charting KR's for (woodbine) has given me some winners already. I mailed RW, GR1 a few KRH's and the strong KRH angle went 2 for 3, the extended angle went 3 for 5 on Sunday....not too bad.

I think I use KR's slightly different than you do Karl, but the principles are similar. I use trip notes from tapes and charts and such to gain confidence in KRH's. They've had a speed bias @ woodbine and some days the wind w/ howl @ 25+mph which helped the speed types on certain days. Plug it all together w/ the KR chapter in Davidowitz' book (which is very similar to what you describe you use in your game) and it's worked well.

The single most important factors tho for KR's are what you mentioned in your past postings on KR's, Karl. They're definitely the fundamentals and I find them most helpful.

Anyone else that wants to chip in on KR's, feel free.

[karlskorner]

SMF

You know the funny thing about "key races" is I can't give you an answer as to why they win. I have had e-mails with a poster on this board who is a programmer and he is in to times, variants etc. looking to capture the answer that way. I don't think thats the route to take. When a horse comes out of a race where 2 or more horses went on to win their next, this becomes a K2 race for me and I look at the charts for that date, If a horse is running today that came from that race was anywhere near those 2 horses he deserves consideration.

Yesterday at GP I had only 1 "key race" horse marked for the day, he was 3rd or 4th in the betting, I went to look at him in the paddock and couldn't get excited, but I was well ahead for the day and made my wager, he paid $10.40 and I walked out with $208 more than I should have had. When I find a K4 horse I stop at my bank on the way to the track.

I don't have the answer. They go up and down in price/purse, change distance, change jockey, change trainers, put on/ take off blinkers/ front wraps, etc. god knows I have been searching for 15-20 years.

Karl

[so.cal.fan]

I like to use negative key races.
Years ago, I discovered at Santa Anita, certain three year old races produced nothing but losers. A couple were favorites and since they came out of these "weak" fields, you could confidently throw them out.
I always try to determine which races were weak, average or strong. It does pay off.

[smf]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
B]I like to use negative key races.
Years ago, I discovered at Santa Anita, certain three year old races produced nothing but losers. A couple were favorites and since they came out of these "weak" fields, you could confidently throw them out.
I always try to determine which races were weak, average or strong. It does pay off. [/B]


SCF,

I know that down here any turfer coming out of a 3yo claimer turf race moving into allowance "non-winners of "conditions, is toast. They w/ never hit the board unless they were claimed from certain trainers. Not sure why but trainers here seem to know the correct future competition level for turfers before the summer for 3yos w/ few exceptions.

Karl,

I hope I hit some of those $20 KRH winners you were talkin about @ WO. That'd be nice.

[Aussieplayer]

As an encouragement to smf, I can tell you that key races w/be a fairly common method of analysis "down here." That, along with the "who beat who" line of thinking, along with "class/weight" ratings (similar to Britian) would comprise our major market influences.

This leads me to believe that whilst Key races may not hold too much value here, they may well do if they are not a pre-eminent factor over there.

Karlskorner & smf: Am I reading you right that a localised pool of racing, (a region where there aren't man shippers) is better fir key race analysis?

Also, why do you differentiate between a K2 & a K4? Gives you more confidence?

Cheers
AP

[smf]

AussiePlayer,

Actually I used to use KR's some until 2 yrs ago. We've seen some changes here on the local circuit that took some punch out of the angle.

Yes, on the east coast between Baltimore/ Wash DC and NY City there are a lot of tracks that are within a couple of hours drive of each other. A trainer has a lot of options where to run his horse, as opposed to where Karl is (Miami). The nearest track to Miami in the summer is about 10 hrs drive or so.

For instance, if you had a horse stabled near Baltimore in the summer, you could ship to Delaware park, Pimlico, Philly pk, Monmouth, Belmont, Penn Nat'l and Charleston in less than 90 minutes or so. Mountaineer and Belmont park are just a little bit further.

Kinda waters down the KR angle just a bit.

Interesting about AUS cappers having KR's as key handicapping angles. KR's are good tools for turf here,( which is all y'all race on.) Makes sense.

[karlskorner]

Aussieplayer;

I think it was in Beyer's first book that I saw the chart in which in a field of 8-9 horses, all but 1 went on to win their next out, the last horse went on to win 8 months later. When I find a date and a certain race that produced 4 next time out winners, I am all over it.

What still puzzles me is when I look at my day chart for let's say March, I find days where not one horse out of the 80-90 that ran that day went on to win their next out, other days there may be several K1's, but nothing beyond that, and other days I can wind up with 3-4 K2's, maybe 1 or more K3's, rarely a K4. At first I thought it might be weekend racing (better horses) not so. I have had people tell me it was probably a bias, but that "so called" bias existed 30 days ago, not so, others explain it away as time and pace, not so.

I am sure some "computer person" will come up with a program that will digest all the races throughout the country, which will give them a tremendous advantage when "shippers" arrive for the day or meet. Fortunately being isolated from the rest of the country, I can keep track manually of the 2000+ horses in the barn area.

Karl

[Tom]

Karl,
I download TM charts and then import into Access. I can extract the "last race" info for each horse and then re-sort it by date and race. Then I can just look at the dates and see how every horse ran next out of each race.
Another key race idea I use if the fast pace race. I have formulas to predict what the pace times/figs should be based on the winners Beyer and then I look for exceptional fast paces (or exceptional fast slow ones) . it's not unusual to find a race that is just out of line for being fast early and horse that finished well in these do very well nex out.