Beyer assigns a 119!

[cj]

Bellamy Road AQU 09 Apr 119
For all the leaders, see here (http://www.drf.com/leaderboard/displayBeyers.html) !

I think he's too high, though it is a really tough call with only two routes, and the other being at 1 1 1/4, and a very windy day to boot.

He has Lost In The Fog at 105 and Forest Danger a 115. I think these are too high by about 4 or 5 points. They crawled early in the LITF race, and blazed in early in the FD race. Beyer had a tough day judging the various pace scenarios, I can tell this already.

[depalma13]

I had it at a 116-118, so it fits pretty well with what I came up with. My guess is they just looked at Survivalist and figured he ran a similar race to what he ran in the Gotham. Had it been exactly the same, I had Bellamy Road at a 121. I didn't think they wanted to give him a number that high, so I thought they would rate Survivalist a little slower than they actually did.

[lsbets]

The horse looked awesome - I wonder what happenned with Gonig Wild - he just stopped. My gut tells me Bellamy won't win the Derby, so he should set up some value as a lot of money will chase him and the high Beyer.

[depalma13]

His high beyer is now a 120.

[cj]

The Prep Capsules on the Triple Crown page lists 120, the Best Beyers page lists 119, not that it matters really. The Santa Anita Derby was given a 98.

[Speed Figure]

I see nothing wrong with that 119 figure. The SA derby has had weak figures for the last 3 years. Horses coming from this race have been non contenders.

[OTM Al]

It seemed to me that the track was running pretty fast in general yesterday, but Bellamy Road was legitimately blazing, as were all 3 of the top horses in the Carter. Lost in the Fog's 105 looked like a jog...he did just enough to win comfortably again, but sure looked to have a whole lot more in the tank had he needed it. Some really exciting horses at the big A Saturday

[ceejay]

Not to demean BR's performance (which was jaw-dropping), I am skeptical about his Derby chances. Two 3 yo preps, only one against stakes company (and perhaps not against the division's best). Front-running style doesn't help his chances either.

I will defiitiely not play him in the futures pool 3 @ 7/2.

[classhandicapper]

I think you almost have to try to beat him in the Derby if he winds up being a solid favorite. His race was terrific, but he did get loose against the second string 3YOs on a track that seemed to playing to speed a bit early (until mid card when the jocks all realized it and started gunning their horses).

I agree that the pace for the Carter was blazing.

Any chance the effects of pace were mitigated to some degree by the effects of the track?

[andicap]

Was the unreal 43.1 in the Carter a result of the track suddenly speeding up for some weird reason -- hey, it happens -- or the jocks realizing there may be a speed bias and blazing to the front.
I agree with Class; I've seen this happen umpteen times before: Speed carries early, the jocks realize it and gun for the lead and then the speed dies because they are all going in ridiculous times, like 43.1.
Don held pretty damn well for going 43.1 so there had to be something unnatural going on with the surface. I mean the horse isn't THAT good.
I, too am skeptical about Bellamy Road's performance. I see perhaps a Derby bounce or inexperience of being in a huge field coming into play -- unless the pace scenario turns out like it did for War Emblem.

Of course, it would be great for the sport if Bellamy Road really was a freak and a superhorse.Then the owners could pretend he suffered a bad injury after the Belmont and retire him to stud.

[cj]

I posted here elsewhere before racing began I expected :43 1:07 from these guys. They are all three exceptionally fast, and I was about 99% certain Aqueduct would be a paved highway. And Don Six is that good since he joined the Lake barn. He needs to stick to 6f though.

[classhandicapper]

CJ,

I agree that a fast pace scenario seemed very likely going into the Carter. I didn't get involved in the race for that reason.

I also got the impression from some of the other races that the jocks sensed that the track was carrying speed and were working harder than usual to make the lead.

I guess it depends on whether you believe there was a speed bias or not yesterday to begin with, but assuming there was, do you think the impact of a speed bias might mitigate the impact of pace to some degree or that some of the very fast fractions were to some degree the result of jocks working a lot harder for the lead than usual and not due to just track speed.

[classhandicapper]

Has anyone read anything anywhere about what happened to Bellamy Road in his one loss?

[cj]

He was "Dickinson-ed?" He doesn't look like such a "mad genius" now, eh?

I actually had him running his best race to date, an 86. His debut was an 80, then an 83, then the loss.

[classhandicapper]

Yea, after I asked the question I went back to your figures and saw that. I guess at that point in his career he wasn't good enough to handle the pace of that race.

[JPinMaryland]

...he did get loose against the second string 3YOs on a track that seemed to playing to speed a bit early (until mid card when the jocks all realized it and started gunning their horses).



very interesting comment, I suppose that is what was happening. Because as we were watching the races I told my buddy it really looks like it's favoring speed today. Then the next race, someone came from just off the pace, then the Carter with the insane pace.

It really creates a sort of chicken/egg situation. Is the track favoring early speed or is it really a function of pace strategy? I guess there really is no way to prove it scientifically.

ANother question: why were so many horses wearing mud caulks and bends? Is this because the track is deeper than usual? Or was it a bit soft? The track was rated fast and certainly it seemed to be blazing fast...

[JPinMaryland]

Oh one more question: you know I am thinking about this whole pace thing and how the track played that day and wondering did Don Six go out too fast, or was it the right strategy to go out in 1:07 and change for 3/4?

Does anyone have the fractions for Artax's or Dr. Fager's performances in this same race? It would be interesting to see whether these wonderful races were set with similar fractions or not...

The wind must have also been helping the front running situation. It was at their backs for the first part of each race and then a head wind down the stretch. Which I think favors early speed. The wind I believe picked up later in the day, since I really noticed it around race 7, I think. The Carter was what race 8? and the Wood, 9? I think. It was strong wind for those..

"Don held pretty damn well for going 43.1 so there had to be something unnatural going on with the surface. I mean the horse isn't THAT good."

THis quote from Andi pretty much sums up what I was trying to say above. He didnt fade that bady for running a 1:07 or at least he didnt seem to finish all that bad. So I wonder if we look at other days when the Carter was run in fast time whether that 1:07 was the same on those days. I.e. when the track is a paved hi-way, it makes sense to go out that fast.

But if say Fager ran 1:08 and change to finish at 1:20; then maybe Don Six should have slowed it down...

[DerbyTrail]

Dr Fager's Vosburgh :22.1 :43.4 1:07.4 1:20.1 (105-12)

Artax's Carter :22.3 :44.4 1:08.0 1:20.0 (102-11)

[Figman]

DR.FAGER never competed in the Carter Hcp. He did win his final career race at 7 furlongs at Aqueduct in The Vosburgh.
DR.FAGER led all the way winning by six and carrying 139 lbs. His fractions were 22-1 43-4 107-4 and was timed in 120-1 breaking the track record by a full second!
After this 22nd and final career start of which he won 18 and carried from 130 lbs. to 139 lbs. in nine of them, he went to stud.

[classhandicapper]

My general opinion on this issue comes exclusively from watching races on very speed favoring sloppy tracks in NY that pop up from time to time.

I noticed a pattern. By mid day, most of the jocks would realize that the track was playing speed. They would all start gunning their horses until the paces got so fast, they were often negating the advantage of being on the lead. Closers would start winning. It also made making pace figures a nightmare because the track variant applicable to the track speed was also probably more applicable to the fractions than making a seperate variant for the pace calls - the paces all being way faster than par not because of track speed but because of jockey aggressiveness.

In any event, I can't give you reasonably accurate pace numbers for yesterday at Aqueduct because I no longer make the figures (CJ can give us those). However, I can tell you that visually in several of the races it looked to me like the jocks were urging their mounts extra hard to get the lead. Then of course the Carter was expected to be a very fast pace no matter what.

Pending further review, I believe yesterday's track was somewhat speed favoring and that the bias somewhat mitigated the usual impact of running a very fast pace.

[kenwoodallpromos]

If the track was AQ, Beyer was hitting the Jack Daniels- if SA, he says he drinks wine spritzers.
in "the Winning horseplayer" he also says a horse 5 lengths back in a 6f race is 12 points (1 1/5 seconds) behind. That is 33.33 feet per second to the wire. :lol:

[JPinMaryland]

great stuff, thanks. Looks like Forest Danger is just about stride for stride w/ Dr. Fager, then losing about 2 panels in the final stretch.

Don Six is front of all of them, maybe his pace was just too fast even for a fast track.

Interesting both Fager and Artax came home somwhat faster than Forest Danger, 12 and 12 1/5 vs 12 9/10


It's also interesting to see that we sort of see horses approaching a sort of built in barrier, regardless of the era, the barrier seems stable. Of course track surfaces can vary this to a degree.

[DerbyTrail]

It's also interesting to see that we sort of see horses approaching a sort of built in barrier, regardless of the era, the barrier seems stable. Of course track surfaces can vary this to a degree.

Unlike human beings, who continue to lower track records as training methods evolve, horses do have a built in physical barrier. Ainslie and Bonnie Ledbetter discuss it in "The Body Language of Horses".

[JPinMaryland]

well, I do think we are seeing some sort of physical barrier, but I dunno why it only applies to horses. Your comment seems to suggest that humans dont have physical barriers. I would guess anything existing in the real world would have physical barriers.

My gut feeling is that human records that continue to evolve might be a result of drugs. ANd this is the reason for the continued dropping of human records.

But it's hard to scientifically say that horse records have indeed hit a wall. There are a lot of issues in there; for one thing as more and more races are run the chances of an aberration happening increase. So a new record might be set just by an outlier data pt. not a real trend. For another, if a race has been run for say 20 years and a record was set 6 years ago say, how do we interpret that?

[GMB@BP]

Bellamy Road AQU 09 Apr 119
For all the leaders, see here (http://www.drf.com/leaderboard/displayBeyers.html) !

I think he's too high, though it is a really tough call with only two routes, and the other being at 1 1 1/4, and a very windy day to boot.

He has Lost In The Fog at 105 and Forest Danger a 115. I think these are too high by about 4 or 5 points. They crawled early in the LITF race, and blazed in early in the FD race. Beyer had a tough day judging the various pace scenarios, I can tell this already.

The number seems about right to me, unless you think survivalist ran considerably slower then he did in the gotham. I mean he did tie the track record at a major circuit track, even with a souped up strip he ran very fast.

[cj]

In the grand scheme of things, 115, 120, does it really matter? He'll tower over the opposition number wise. Now, can he run near it again in a little less than 4 weeks?

[GMB@BP]

In the grand scheme of things, 115, 120, does it really matter? He'll tower over the opposition number wise. Now, can he run near it again in a little less than 4 weeks?

great point, unless sun king, consolidator, or bandini run some monster figure he will tower over the field. I say he has to regress and he wont get nearly the same trip, unless he can go 45 and change.

[JPinMaryland]

well I dont get it. I thought Byers were based upon the dailey races run. ANd werent all or most of the races being won in fast times? So wouldnt that tend to depress a Beyer speed figure? Something I'm sure Im not getting.

Dont tell me to read About Speed or whatever. I've read his stuff, he's a good writer. Just dont ask me to quote Vision and Verse on it.

[cj]

JP,

The track was fast, but even so, the 1:47 was much faster than could be expected even looking at the times of the races being run. I still say the speed figure is too high. It was a windy day, the pace was quick, and only two routes were run. The first route was run a few hours earlier at the rarely ever run distance at Aqueduct of 1 1/4 miles. I think they are mostly basing the speed figure on Survivalist and Scrappy T running similar to their recent races, but I doubt, speed figure wise, that they did. I think they both ran much faster early than they are used to running. Even Survivalist, who was 10 lengths behind or so after 3/4s mile, had run faster to that point in the race than he ever had before, and I think his final figure probably regressed.

All this said, it really doesn't matter. The thing is, Bellamy ran a spectacular race. The rest from the Wood are not very good horses, not G1 types at least for sure. If BR repeats his Wood on May 7th, he'll win the Derby, whether he ran 110, 115, or 120. The question isn't how fast he ran to the exact digit Saturday, it is how fast he will run in Louisville.

[KingChas]

This kind of race scares me.We either have a budding superstar,or a 3 year
old that has peaked early.or just plain freaked for one race.As I said it scares me.Without another race before the Derby I have no idea about this very lightly :confused: raced Bellamy Road.But he sure was visualy awesome Saturday.

[hoarsebet]

i am so sick of this guy pontificating on every nuance of the beyer figures.

here this cj and hear it good, bellamy road will be beaten on derby day.

you can take that to the bank...........................

[cj]

You can use the ignore button.

[PaceAdvantage]

hb is history....not enough time in the day to deal with turds....maybe if this was his first post of this nature, I'd let it slide, but a quick glance at his 11 post history reveals it's just not worth it to keep him around....besides, it gives me a chance to flush out all his other registered nicks.....LOL

[JPinMaryland]

I still say the speed figure is too high. It was a windy day, the pace was quick, and only two routes were run.

oKay this is the second time you've mentioned pace in this discussion so I will ask: What does pace have to do with it? Beyer figures do not factor in pace, do they?

Hence why the argument about pace? I dont get it. I know YOUR figures factor in pace, but not Beyers..


If BR repeats his Wood on May 7th, he'll win the Derby, whether he ran 110, 115, or 120. The question isn't how fast he ran to the exact digit Saturday, it is how fast he will run in Louisville.

??? THen why the hell do you bother to make speed figures in the first place?

Whoa brother. You are skating on thin ice if now you want to disavow the whole system...

[cj]

JP,

Pace impacts final time, and the Beyer people often get fooled when the pace is very fast or very slow.

As for the speed figure, I was just saying it doesn't matter much because he will have the highest by a decent margin, whether its 110, 115, or 120. Of course if others were running in this range, it would matter.

[46zilzal]

It really creates a sort of chicken/egg situation. Is the track favoring early speed or is it really a function of pace strategy? I guess there really is no way to prove it scientifically.

There are numbers available (early/late balance) which gives you an evaluation of HOW fast/slow the course runs on any particular day.

[DerbyTrail]

As for the speed figure, I was just saying it doesn't matter much because he will have the highest by a decent margin, whether its 110, 115, or 120. Of course if others were running in this range, it would matter.

CJ..

That was HIS (Bellamy's) April prep.. Consolidator and High Limit come to the Blue Grass off 105's for THEIR April prep.. Who says either or both don't jump to 110-115..?? And B&R "ran" a "110" at Nad.. I'd say there ARE others running in the range, especially if the wind and variant inflated the Bellamy number by as little as 5%.

No? Maybe??

[JPinMaryland]

if you are saying these speed figures could be off by as much as 10 pts. then I have no idea why anyone would even look at them, much less take the trouble to calculate them. C'mon you are a figure maker, not professional but respected enuf, can you give us more accuracy?

[OTM Al]

Beyer says its a 120, then its a 120. You've got to figure margin for error in any calculations/estimates of the sort, but that's ok. You know its potentially there, then you can account for it rather than blindly assuming an absolute truth. Besides, how many times has Andy Beyer written a column after a big race saying he wishes he would have believed his own figures. Now we just wait and see if any of the big boys left can come out and get near that mark.

[cj]

I'm saying 111, take it or leave it ;)

[rrbauer]

I think you almost have to try to beat him in the Derby if he winds up being a solid favorite. His race was terrific, but he did get loose against the second string 3YOs on a track that seemed to playing to speed a bit early (until mid card when the jocks all realized it and started gunning their horses).



Comment: Who are the first-string 3YO's? Are there any aside from this monster?

[betovernetcapper]

This is not an original thought, but when a horse wins by a significant margin, it often produces an inflated figure and BR won by 17.5 lengths. I can't take his 119 at face value.

[JustRalph]

I don't know about the number for the wood........but I questioned the number beyer gave to Ghost Zapper and he came back and ran like a monster.......

Very good thread..........I appreciate you numbers guys. I am not very good at it ....but love to read your comments after a race like this.....keep up the good work.

[Tee]

Forget the number for a moment.

Just look at the running style of the horse in question & the way he gets things done.

Big question is can he run away and hide going 10 furlongs?

Will he be allowed to do so?

[GeTydOn]

Still not a fan of Bellamy Road. And what's gonna happen when someone looks him in the eye with a challenge spinning out of the turn for a battle down the lane?? Only time will tell. But there is too much hype coming out of the Wood.

[First_Place]

Triple crown...high Beyer figs...big deal. :rolleyes: I couldn't care less. I'm always amazed how sports fanatics get so worked up by the hype leading up to and during the Triple Crown chase. Whoop-de-doo. My ONLY interest in Turf investing is whether or not I make a profit. Period. I don't care one bit about these cream of the crop horses and the hype surrounding them. Who remembers the hyped-horses from just a few years ago? Hmmm?

The only thing that matters to me is the bottom line. Period. In fact, in my book, cheap claimers are where it$ at--my "bread and butter."

"Beyer assigns a 119!" No it's not...yes it is! No, it's higher! No, it's lower!

Gimme a break...

FP

[PaceAdvantage]

Give you a break from what?

You're interested in what you do, that's fine. Let other people write and discuss what is interesting to THEM. Nobody is forcing you to read anything. Relax.

I happen to enjoy reading about the creation and assigning of speed figures, and I particularly enjoy seeing horses attain lofty numbers. Sorry, but that's me. That's what makes this world so interesting. Different interests, different personalities, different ways of looking at things....

[GeTydOn]

Too many people feel this game ain't big enough for everyone. That's a shame.

[46zilzal]

Don't mean much until you look at the INTERACTION

[cj]

Give me good numbers, I'll tell you how they are going to interact. ;)

[KingChas]

Take at look at these times in fifths at 6f mark Aqueduct 4/9/05:
Race 3 6f-msw 108.4
Race 6 6f-150k Stakes 108.4
Race 7 6f-alw 43k 108.2
Race 8 6f-350k Stakes 107.2
Race 9 6f-750k-Bellamy Rd 109.4

Of course these races are at different distances,but this track was pretty freaky Saturday.check the 43k alw race and Msw times.Bellamy Rd did keep going but as I said this oval was juiced.Good Figs?Lost in the Fog-Derby?What do you think? :bang:

[46zilzal]

All my early/late balances projected the track VERY FAST.

[toetoe]

G. Steinbrenner winning the Kentucky Derby? Thashuss WRONG!