Handicapping 101 -- the goils dont beat the boys very often

[BeatTheChalk]

but those 69 to 1 shots ..dont happen very often either. Darn ..horse
had 1 11 workout the other day .. ah well.....didnt win didnt lose didnt bet :)

[zerosky]

Sometimes betting the horses is akin to fishing..
The bet that got away, for me it was General John B.
' you should have seen it!, it was this big'

How do you think this years crop of three years measure up?

[cj]

Old "Milkshake" Mullins wins his 3rd Santa Anita Derby in a row!

[Tom]

He has the Neopolitan triple - Vanilla, Chocolate, Strawberry.:D

[kenwoodallpromos]

All I see on this forum today is negative unrelated BS. I'm not surprised racing is in the shape it is if the most ardent cannot find anything nice to say.
Especially when the walkovers get a little competition. Or maybe you figure several horses competing down the stretch is worst for racing than how the Fog race turned out, with no show betting.

[PaceAdvantage]

Are you guys trying to say Mullins won that race in a less than fair manner?

BTW, did anyone really think Sweet Catomine had a real shot to win? I didn't have the winner, but I threw SC out right away on ability alone.....

EVEN MONEY?????


EVEN MONEY????


I often wonder why this game is so difficult, when I see crowd blunders as large as betting Sweet Catomine down to even money.....:rolleyes:

[kenwoodallpromos]

Regardless of SC and even money, you are correct about something. I did not see a correlation between the betting and 5 horses close in mid-stretch!

[cj]

I often wonder why this game is so difficult, when I see crowd blunders as large as betting Sweet Catomine down to even money.....:rolleyes:


This is what we've been trying to tell Formula, all even money shots are not the same, nor are all 3-1 shots, and so on.

[sgv]

Now I know people will say That the oddsmaker is just trying to predict what the public will do, but a three yr old fillie makes her first start against colts, in an eleven horse field, in a grade 1 stakes race, and gets made the 7/5 ml favorite. I'm still trying to figure that one out.

[cj]

Seeing how the horse went off at Even money, the ML maker did a good job. I'm not sure what you are getting at here.

[karlskorner]

How would the race set up different if Sweet Catomine had been scratched ?Buzzards Bay would still come out on or near 30/1, he beat the field, period.

I read somewhere this morning " Where does it say in the rule book that an owner/trainer/jockey has to share any informaton with the general public about the well being of the horse ". The horse went " into season " reason, enough for the loss.

I appreciate that everyone wants a level playing field, like Michael Douglas said in the movie Wall Street, information is the name of the game. If everyone one had "all" the information as requested we would be tripping over each other

[sgv]

I am just being hard headed and making the mistake of assuming that a morning line should be made with regards to what a horse has done up until this point, and the situation that this horse finds itself in today. I do realize however that this is not the total reality of how lines are made by track oddsmakers.

[karlskorner]

And the " place " horse paid $40.00, how far off was the line maker ?

[Zaf]

BLUESTHESTANDARD worked 4f ft in :45.60 H (1/45) at SA, 04/10/05.

ZAFONIC

[freehouse2002]

BLUESTHESTANDARD worked 4f ft in :45.60 H (1/45) at SA, 04/10/05.

ZAFONIC
Meh....Blues has always been a great work horse. If he wins 1st out in Mullins barn, then I'll wonder....


freehouse2002

[DrugSalvastore]

Old "Milkshake" Mullins wins his 3rd Santa Anita Derby in a row!

It's actually his 4th straight Santa Anita Derby win in a row--they just never gave him the trophy for it in 2002 when his 47-to-1 shot Lusty Latin was 3rd after a comically bad ride by Gwenn Corbett.

He's gone 4-3-0-1 over the last four SA Derby's---and he's done it with some really cheapish horses who all went off at big prices.

Call him Milkshake Mullins, Miracle Mullins, Magic-wand Mullins, Mullet Mullins--whatever--the guy just has an edge that others don't. Since 2000, no one has done more with less than Jeff Mullins. If anyone even thinks that this guy always plays by the rules---than they ought to be sent off to North Warren in a strait-jacket.

[Zaf]

BLUESTHESTANDARD (GA) 45.60 h 1/45

DANTHEBLUEGRASSMAN (KY) 46.40 h 2/45

JUST MY GAME (FL) 47.20 h 3/45

Pretty big gap from 1 to 3. I love the horse , I hope he's happy & sound !

ZAFONIC

[Zaf]

Mullins came from Turf Paradise ? Right ?

ZAFONIC

[cj]

And the " place " horse paid $40.00, how far off was the line maker ?

Exactly, he wasn't far off at all, he had this one being a bomb too. It is rare the ML maker will go too high on the odds as they don't want to "insult" the owner of the animal.

[sgv]

Who's talking about the line on the other horses in the race? All I am saying is IMO she had no business being a 7/5 ml favorite in an eleven horse field. Seems to me that this was just another piece of the marketing strategy pushed by the track and repeated by the media. Lets market this race as the undefeatable super filly taking on the boys. we'll have car shows and bands, give away t shirts, then the rest of the year we will treat our fans and customers like crap. So we come back to the line maker predicting what the public will do. But would the public have hammered her if the magicians had not created the illusion in the first place?

[PaceAdvantage]

I find it hard to believe Sweet Catomine was that much of a draw, no matter what her morning line was....but, then again, I'm way out here on the east coast, so maybe I am underestimating her drawing power...

[karlskorner]

The Press Box made the "noise" about the horse before the race, the Press Box suffered the loss and the Press Box is responsible for the garbage going on now.

[sgv]

The Press Box made the "noise" about the horse before the race, the Press Box suffered the loss and the Press Box is responsible for the garbage going on now.

You are right on the mark.