Straight vs Exotic Betting

[JimG]

I know of two professional (horse racing is their sole source of income) players that frequent this board. Karlskorner and smf. I'm sure there may be others.

Anyhow, if memory serves me karl is a win bettor and smf is a win-place bettor.

I'm what you call a regular player but far from professional (I have a job) and I like to play the exotics. I've been doing rather poorly recently and have been thinking about changing my betting style to straight betting.

Are there any pro players that frequent this board that primarily play exotics? Seems to me if I wanna profit each year at this game I should try to emulate the pros. I realize not all pros are the same but I wanted to get a good idea where the prevailing thoughts are on this subject.

All responses welcome.

Jim

[smf]

Jim,

Not that it's of any import, but I only plug in a w/p wager about 20-25% of my bets on claims. Usually it's a straight win bet. I 'll toss in a win/ place bet if I think the fave can finish out, and I have good odds.

Also, I do play pick3s occasionally on tracks I have a degree of familiarity with. I never did bet pick 3 or 4s at MJC or Del. Just didn't know the overall scene as well as I needed to do so.

Also, on turf races (msw, n1x) I'll bet tri's along with win bets. Full fields= nice payoffs. Now that I can tape races on a daily basis again, I can't wait for WO this summer.

All that said, I think A-Dave has a solid plan of betting the same % of bank to win on about each bet-able race. In my case, I know I can do better betting straight on claims (where i single out a runner), whereas I know on turf I do MUCH better w/ tri's, where you can eliminate many runners on pedigree, trainers, etc...

jmho...

Whatever you feel comfortable with betting-wise and have some fun doing, I'd go that direction. :)

[karlskorner]

Jim

The more I read on this board the more I am amazed at the many ways people approach the business of horseracing. For the life of me I can't pick a place or show horse in a trifecta or perfecta, if my life depended on it. It was discouraging when I had the winner and wasn't even close with my bottom horses. I couldn't stand the pain. It came down to a very simple thing, the horse I chose is either going to win or lose. If I lose, I go on to the next race. I look for 4-6 winners a day.

Such things as bankroll, value betting are foreign to me. I know many on this board revolve around these methods. I leave home each day with money to cover win wagers on the 8-10 races I plan to wager on in "equal amounts" and additional monies to cover the "key races"" horses I intend to play. I watch in amazement at people who play simulcast, they have no idea who the trainer is, the jockey, the owner or anything about the horse, yet they wager.

My only "side" wagers are on "key race" horses, which I explained sometime back, in the past 12 days at GP I netted over $3200. on "key races" horses, they pay big, and yet nobody seems to take the time to chart them. Tomorrow Calder opens, I have spent the last 3 days preparing for the 8 month meet.

Karl

[smf]

Originally posted by karlskorner
Jim


My only "side" wagers are on "key race" horses, which I explained sometime back, in the past 12 days at GP I netted over $3200. on "key races" horses, they pay big, and yet nobody seems to take the time to chart them
Karl



How would you know who here charts KR's and who doesn't, Karl?

[karlskorner]

SMF

You are right, that was sort of all emcompassing, I should have said nobody "I know" seems to bother charting them.

I just read this on another board, a quote from Michael Pizzola, Handicapping Magic.

(Numbers) are "not" meant to represent mathematical precision or the absolute truth of a horse's performance, because in my experience, there isn't any such thing"

I never read the man's book, but I know I like him.

Karl

[smf]

Thanks for the reply. I understand your point.

There are (at least) 2 other people here that use KR's in handicapping races.

I tried KR's @ LRL over the winter but with horses shipping in and out from CT, DEL, PHA, AQU, etc, the KR angle was watered down a good bit. One w/h to chart the entire eastern seaboard in order to make it work. At least that was the impression I got.

I still find it valuable to track KR's.

South Fla is the perfect place (i'm guessing) to use KR's. Few day trippers shipping in & out.

[karlskorner]

Smf

Since I do it manually, it takes about 10 minutes to post to the charts and keep my day chart. I know I couldn't do it if I wasn't playing a "closed circuit" such as GP and CRC. The "shippers" at GP are a problem, but the majority of horses are from CRC so I can carry my charts over from CRC. Now that CRC is open the only "shippers" of any concern are from Tampa. I really shouldn't carry on about them, but they are gold and saved my day several times. $20-$60 horses are the norm.

Karl

[Tom]

I get a vibe from karlscorner that his success is based within himself not a program or a number. He seems to have his way developed and the confidence to play it. I admire the ability to be focused. I turn on my computer an play russian roulette with whatever program pops up first. I skip from one methodology to another way too often. I see people at the track scurrying to get down a bet just because a race is ready to go off and they have no clue what they are betting, just that they can't miss a race.

[superfecta]

That the neat thing about this game, the ways to bet and make money are numerous.Everyone can pick a niche and go with it.
Karlskorner knows what works for him and goes with it,but what works for him doesn't work for me.I can pick contenders but hitting several winners in a day,that would be beyond me.
I have stated before,since I can't consistently get the winner,I have to fall back on exotics,to maximize my return when I do have the winner,I can capititalize on the fact I can also get the horses that get ITM at longer odds.I don't bet very much money,I lose more races than I get,but I can win one race and keep myself in the black for a long time.
I would say that Karl knows more about money managing than he thinks he does.He has reached that comfort zone-confident in his abilities,and the amount of money he bets.Very few will ever get there,but its something to strive towards.

[Lefty]

Karl, no disrespect but bankroll can't be a foreign concept to you. Maybe it's only in the subconcious but it's there. Every bet you make is "some" pctg of your BR and you have to have a rough idea anyway of what that pctg should be. Say you have a $20,000 BR. Well I know you're not going to risk it all in one day so how much are you going to risk. Br and bet relationship is always there.

[CamptownRaces.com]

Originally posted by JimG

Are there any pro players that frequent this board that primarily play exotics? Seems to me if I wanna profit each year at this game I should try to emulate the pros. I realize not all pros are the same but I wanted to get a good idea where the prevailing thoughts are on this subject.

All responses welcome.

Jim

My income doesn't come only from the horses, but I don't have what most call a "Real Job".

I play the exotics almost 98% of the time...

I'm just the opposite of Karl...

I have an easier time finding the Exacta Key...

I have a harder time saying if that horse will win or not...

I play very differently than most do, but I still make good money playing the Ponies... (off of the tote only...)

All of us should just do what feels like the right thing for us...

Whatever works for you...

Charles

[so.cal.fan]

You're getting good advice here as usual, Jim.
The people who are making money betting horses on a consistent basis, are using a variety of methods.
I have found this to be true, on track.
Some bet big pick six tickets, with partners.
Some bet triples
Some bet exactas and trifectas
Some bet to Win.
I'm not sure you can make enough profit betting Place or Show, but I could very well be wrong.
I am very conservative (at least at the track) and I like to bet to Win. I used to bet Exactas but got off them when they went from $5 minimums to $2, now I think they are a $1!
The prices went down, at least where I play.
The advice to find the one thing, YOU feel most comfortable with is the KEY. Find the type of race or angles you feel best with, and STICK to YOUR plan.;)

[rrbauer]

A lot of what you play in terms of the betting menu has to be driven by the amount of preparation you put into your handicapping and analysis. Right now, the only circuit I'm playing is SoCal. Shortly, when Belmont opens, I'll be playing NYRA and SoCal for the balance of the summer.

My preference is to go through an entire card before I get caught up in "I'm going to do this" or "I'm going to do that"; and, try to get some feel where the value windows are in the card. Specifically, single-race windows (win/place/exacta) and multi-race windows (P3/P4/DD). This is hard to do if you bump along on a race-by-race basis, handicapping the races as they come up.

So, right now, because I'm only playing one circuit I have time to be thorough and search out what I feel are the best playing opportunities before the first flag falls. Sometimes Mr. Tote Board doesn't cooperate and my value window gets closed. Next race please! Also, because I've kept records over the years, I know which type of races are my meat; and, which type are less than friendly. That knowledge comes into play when I'm looking at P3 and P4 opportunities. I'm kidding myself when I start stringing together races in a P3- or P4-play when half of the races are the problem types for me.

As the other posts in this thread have pointed out there are many niches of opportunity and the key is to figure out what works for you and then stick to it. One other thing: I don't know anyone who has been successful in this game who didn't pay a lot of dues to get where he/she is. And, having got there, they still work harder at this than any job they ever had.

[ernie simons]

"And, having got there, they still work harder at this than any job they ever had."

Absolutely. My father always said "Gambling is the hardest easy money I ever earned"



__________________

:D

[JimG]

Just wanted to thank everyone for the responses. I am in a reflective mode right now as I have been in a slump at the windows.

Cannot beat advice given on this board. I am convinced some of the best players in the game are right here! At the very least, certainly some of the most knowledgeable.


Jim

[JimG]

Richard,

When playing 1 circuit like SoCal, how many races on the average day do you play? I have found it best to concentrate on 3-4 at most.

Hard to break old habits to play every race...but I'm trying.

Jim

[rrbauer]

Jim G wrote:

Richard,

When playing 1 circuit like SoCal, how many races on the average day do you play? I have found it best to concentrate on 3-4 at most.

Comment: Last week I was keeping a low profile because I've found that the opening week at HOL can be nasty. For example, on opening day, Wednesday, I made two bets: A place bet and a P4 bet. On Thursday, I made one bet: A WP bet. Friday, I didn't play. Saturday was better. Several Tri's and X's; a P3 and the P4 (which paid paltry). Sunday was a mish-mash. I ended the week on the plus side, but it wouldn't pay the rent!

So, to answer your question: It all depends on the card for the most part; and, also, it depends on the amount of time that I have to prepare. And for the "final answer" it depends on what Mr. Tote Board has to say! (Although in the P4's I'm more concerned about how many favorites I think are vulnerable-especially the ones that I think my competition will use as "singles".)

[kitts]

Jim G-

I always thought I owned losing streaks <g> I read in this month's Barry Meadows Newsletter about Russell Baze enduring a 24 race consecutive losing streak. As you may know, Russell is a 29% jockey and dominates Northern Califonria racing. I was somewhat mollified to hear this. Especially the fact that most of the losers were favorites and the average odds on all the losers was 2-1! I score nowhere near 29% when I am on top of my game so it was of some comfort to hear this. He broke the string on a 6/5 shot. Barry added that if you were doubling your bet each time on "sure thing Baze" it would cost multi-millions to get back the $2 on that 6/5 shot