DerbyTrail
04-08-2005, 02:45 PM
Up now on Derby Trail: http://www.groups.yahoo.com/group/derbytrail
As discussed earlier in the week, the spring prep schedule launches into its' frenetic final stages Saturday, as the Wood Memorial, Illinois and Santa Anita Derbies provide a last chance for many hopefuls to bank graded stakes earnings to gain admittance to the May 7 Kentucky Derby.
In addition to the three sophomore contests, the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) launches its popular National Picks this weekend. Though usually a Pick 4, this week's NTRA promotional wager is a Pick 3 which combines the Wood and IL Derby with the 7f Carter (AQU 8th). Below we preview the important three year old races in detail and provide a suggested approach to the Pick 3 proposition.
The Wood Memorial has always been an important stop on the Derby Trail dating back to its inaugaration in 1925. The race, originally the Wood Stakes, is a memorial to Eugene D. Wood, a founder of the famed Jamaica Racetrack which was one of several forerunner ovals, including the original Aqueduct, at Jamaica Plains. The Wood was run at Jamaica prior to 1960, was conducted at one mile and seventy yards from 1925-39; 8.5f from 1940-5l, and otherwise at its present 9f.
With 20 Derby winners including the Wood in their sophomore campaigns, it has frequently been the most important prep of the season on the road to Louisville. Starting with Gallant Fox in 1930, six of the 11 Triple Crown winners (all but Sir Barton, War Admiral, Whirlaway, Citation & Affirmed) made visits to Jamaica and Aqueduct, with Omaha (Today) and Secretariat (Angle Light) both being upset in third place performances.
Three of the last four Derby winners ran here: 2003, Funny Cide second to Empire Maker; 2001, Monarchos second to Congaree; and 2000, winner Fusaichi Pegasus. But in addition to producing Derby winners, the Wood can always be counted on to feature colts, and fillies, of class. Genuine Risk (Plugged Nickel) was third in the Wood in 1980 before her Derby heroics, while Gallorette (1945) could not best the very good Jeep as part of a brilliant career in which she regularly beat colts and horses.
Wood winners Native Dancer (1953), Bold Ruler (1957 over Gallant Man), Damascus (1967), Broad Brush (1986) and Easy Goer (1989) may have failed to wear rose blankets, but are indicative of the kinds of horses that include a Wood Memorial victory on their Hall of Fame resumes.
Saturday's edition, the 81st, could be a free for all given that the first five finishers from the wild blanket finish Gotham are reunited here. The addition of speedy Bellamy Road, Going Wild and Scrappy T also assures a hot pace in an event that finds virtually every participant in need of a top placement to garner vital graded stakes earnings in the scramble for a Derby starting berth.
The 81st Gr. I WOOD MEMORIAL, AQU 9th, 9f, $750,000, All carry 123
1 SCRAPPY T (Bailes/Bejarano) 15-1: Wisely shelved by Bailes after intense and successful seven race Sept-Feb run including 11-1 Count Fleet surprise. Trifecta regular returns at attractive tote in tough spot, but gets rail and Raffy for this brass ring swipe. T-J combo 2 for 2, and expect usual game effort from this guy while hoping inner track wasn't the magic elixir for his winter success. A must use in gimmick slots at the least.
2 BYANOSEJOE (Dutrow/Santos) 12-1: First of the Gotham 5 here today dove to the rail in that frantic feature and has received least notice for finishing 1.5 lengths back. Shows solid, steady career growth since Dec. diploma, but is still a notch below the top ones here from a speed standpoint. Red hot Santos hops on for cagey Dutrow who's been racking up the wins since the Jamaica main reopened. One of three off pace types signed on, will saves the most ground over Survivalist and New Yorker, but is still tough to envision in brutally tough field.
3 BELLAMY ROAD (Zito/Castellano) 2-1: Savvy Steinbrenner OBS (4/04) buy, originally written off for Derby campaign due to injury, exploded on Trail scene 3/12 with 15+ length allowance assassination at GP under care of Zito. Fastest of the speed according to figs, but hoping to sit off today according to Nick. Castellano, who's been lighting it up in FL, makes the trip north to ride Concerto colt who shouldn't have trouble with the stretch-out. Is one of the only ones here who can "afford" less than a second and still make Derby. Will depress mutuels as likely fave, but is impossible to toss.
4 SURVIVALIST (McGaughey/Migliore) 5-1: True "survivor" of Gotham war gets acid test for pedigree power as son of Danzig and Mr. Prospector mare goes beyond 8f for the first time today. Shows classic sophomore development pattern pairing up efforts as he moves forward. Big A main meet leader Mig has piloted both career victories and figures to sit good trip no matter who gets sent early. Square at 5-1, and glory-eligible for 'old school' connections of the legendary black blouse with cherry cap.
5 GOING WILD (Lukas/V. Espinoza) 5-2: Speaking of legendary silks, the green and gold of Bob and Bev Lewis figures prominently as well today with Sham winner needing second or better performance to join stablemate Consolidator in Louisville. Lukas showing no fear with Golden Missile colt considering the options that were available to gain needed graded earnings. As we've flogged, only class of '05 member with 100+ sprint and route Beyers. Got unintended rating lesson in rough Santa Catalina trip which should come in handy today. Must fire best shot and will be no bargain at the windows.
6 PAVO (Pedersen/Bailey) 8-1: Paraneck purchase was hard luck DQ victim in Gotham group grope after jockey Garcia lost irons early and rode like a Sioux at Little Big Horn thereafter. Has found trouble, started poorly or been taken up in five of nine starts and needs it all to come together here and now. Addition of Bailey, who rarely rides for Jenn and Ernie, should help. But Marquetry chestnut is still just one of many from Gotham who have to eclipse the three newcomers in this affair.
7 GALLOPING GROCER (Schettino/Luzzi) 6-1: Last chance scenario has come up suddenly for heralded winter hoss that dueled Rockport Harbor so gamely when 2nd in last fall's Remsen. Schettino thinks displaced palette may have been culprit in Whirlaway-Gotham disappointments, and addition of figure eight bit has registered dividends in gelding's morning efforts leading up to this. Can't dawdle at the start given gate's position today or risks getting spun wide early. Now or never for Mrs. Waldbaum's A.P. Jet red.
8 NAUGHTY NEW YORKER (Kelly/Samyn) 10-1: We've been vocal about our perception that Kelly has not done right by this late-running NY-bred from Fox Ridge, with continued use of Jean-Luc and failure to find appropriate distance progression for a Quiet American bay that's crying to go longer. This is THE spot, and expect NNY won't be hurt by wide draw as Frenchman can cut behind four to his right who will be out early. Adds Lasix at the most opportune time, and figures close at the finish if Samyn can finally time it right. Will be an injustice if this one misses the run for the roses.
SELECTIONS:
1. Going Wild: We'll trust that D. Wayne continues to push the right buttons.
2. Naughty New Yorker: Capable, but admit we're rooting for him.
3. Bellamy Road: Can't toss knowing that Zito won't disappoint "Boss" in NY.
4. Survivalist: May peak perfectly for Shug & Phipps who deserve a Derby.
5. Scrappy T: Can't pass up 15-1 on game colt that fits exotics on figs.
ILLINOIS DERBY, HAW 7th, 9f, Gr. II, $500,000
An unusual field made the trip to Cicero for this edition of the Illinois Derby, and as many as two slots in the Kentucky Derby are up for grabs... The likelihood that at least one horse from the exacta here will be a visitor to Churchill May 7 that few in the crowd will be familiar with from early Derby Trail exploits.
1 GREELEY'S GALAXY (Stute/Desormeaux) 9/2: Stute speedster from CA got very good, very fast earning 95 Beyer when stretching out. Will be hard pressed not to regress off that effort, but gets advantageous starting spot from which to try under Kent D. (who didn't come to Chicago today for deep dish pizza).
2 MONARCH LANE (Pletcher/DeCarlo) 6-1: Pletcher sends Decarlo along with Maria's Mon chestnut that was a winter buzz horse. Chased Sun King and Survivalist in GP ALW and has worked steadily for this, but still needs a fig boost to get winner's share.
3 MAGNA GRADUATE (Byrne/Razo, Jr.) 4-1: Had long, strange trip in sealed track Lane's End 5th, and comes back quick for Byrne. ML 2nd choice adds strong local rider to package and should get quality pace-pressing voyage.
4 RIKMAN (Mott/Castillo, Jr.) 5-1: Herbie hitting at brisk 24% with re-invigorated Mott, so don't be put off by his getting the call. Got career best fig when returned to Big A main in last, and is another who should get trip he wants at notorious inside speed strip.
5 UNBRIDLED ENERGY (Walden/Bridgmohan) 6-1: Walden finally arrives on Derby Trail scene with this ouchy Unbridled's Song grey that jump-started soph season in nice GP ALW score last. Returned to track 10 days later -- a good sign of continued fitness -- and figures if able to stretch out comfortably.
6 MEDIGATING (O'Callaghan/L. Melancon) 12-1: French import failed to keep up in Sun King's TB Derby... Failed to keep up Lord Robyn's Tropical Park Derby... Will undoubtedly fail to keep up with the winner of THIS Derby...
7 WIN ME OVER (Williamson/Sterling) 20-1: Nice bay colt built bankroll facing IL-breds before trying open company last pair. Local horses traditionally do well in this event, but usually there's more than one in it. Hard pressed for anything other than last Super lot.
8 DADDY JOE (Pederson/Arroyo, Jr.) 10-1: Fact that Bailey gets Pavo in Wood for Pederson-Paragallo barnmate and Arroyo is here tells you all you need to know. Reverted to front end tactics in Rushaway 2nd last time but figures to lose ground versus the inside speed here. Is a notch slower than the top ones too.
9 KANSAS CITY BOY (McPeek/Emigh) 7/2: McPeek project has had circuitous Derby Trail route and gets worst of the slots for last ditch earnings effort today. Does get local pilot in irons to work out a trip though and still believe this one has some talent. Must come home with at least a placement to boost wallet. Capable, but shaky.
SELECTIONS:
1. Magna Graduate: Figuring the Turfway fiasco took nothing out.
2. Rikman: Lone winner at the trip could cruise with pair up to last.
3. Kansas City Boy: Willing to stay on board for one last try.
4. Unbridled Energy: Talented but with same old problems of sire.
5. Monarch Lane: Pletcher ship-ins have popped in these lesser events.
BETTING THE NTRA NATIONAL PICK THREE
The National Pick Three, a popular and often lucrative multi-track wager, kicks off this year with the Carter and Wood from Aqueduct and the IL Derby from Hawthorne as the third leg.
The Carter Handicap is one of the oldest races in the country, first run in 1895. Captain William Carter of Brooklyn, a contractor and tugboat captain, offered up the initial prize money 105 years ago ($500), and had the 7f classic named for him in appreciation. The Carter Handicap will always by remembered for the triple dead heat it produced in 1944, when Bossuet, Brownie, and Wait a Bit could not be separated at the wire, the only such finish in American stakes history. In 1999, Artax broke Dr. Fager’s seven-furlong Aqueduct track record (set in 1968), completing the seven furlongs in 1:20. That victory also established a new stakes record for the Carter Handicap. (From Aqueduct press notes)
The Wood Memorial Weekend Pick Three has been conducted since 1997, though usually comprised of the Wood, Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby. It's typical payoff is in the $150-$300, although in 1998 it came back worth $450 when Coronado's Quest, Halory Hunter and Victory Gallop swept the three preps. Most famously, the 1999 "3" paid a whopping $3,600 when Adonis won the Wood, Menifee the Blue Grass and notorious Valhol the Arkansas Derby. After Valhol's "shocking" win, it was discovered that jockey Billy Patin had used a "buzzer" which resulted in a suspension from which he only recently was reinstated.
First Leg: Carter (2)
Though we'd like to single Mr. and Mrs. Jones' FOREST DANGER here, MASS MEDIA showed an affinity for the Aqueduct 7f course when he crushed the Sport's Page last fall. We'll use them both.
Second Leg: Wood (6)
BELLAMY ROAD, SCRAPPY T, GOING WILD, PAVO, SURVIVALIST and NAUGHTY NEW YORKER provide a variety of coverage here with speed, presser, stalker and closer styles all covered. Scrappy, Pavo or New Yorker would make the bet worth hitting.
Third Leg: IL Derby (2)
MAGNA GRADUATE and RIKMAN make a lot of sense in this spot. They are the two fastest horses most likely to maintain their current form level on a speed-kind oval.
2 x 6 x 2 = $24
Santa Anita Derby Preview to follow..
As discussed earlier in the week, the spring prep schedule launches into its' frenetic final stages Saturday, as the Wood Memorial, Illinois and Santa Anita Derbies provide a last chance for many hopefuls to bank graded stakes earnings to gain admittance to the May 7 Kentucky Derby.
In addition to the three sophomore contests, the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) launches its popular National Picks this weekend. Though usually a Pick 4, this week's NTRA promotional wager is a Pick 3 which combines the Wood and IL Derby with the 7f Carter (AQU 8th). Below we preview the important three year old races in detail and provide a suggested approach to the Pick 3 proposition.
The Wood Memorial has always been an important stop on the Derby Trail dating back to its inaugaration in 1925. The race, originally the Wood Stakes, is a memorial to Eugene D. Wood, a founder of the famed Jamaica Racetrack which was one of several forerunner ovals, including the original Aqueduct, at Jamaica Plains. The Wood was run at Jamaica prior to 1960, was conducted at one mile and seventy yards from 1925-39; 8.5f from 1940-5l, and otherwise at its present 9f.
With 20 Derby winners including the Wood in their sophomore campaigns, it has frequently been the most important prep of the season on the road to Louisville. Starting with Gallant Fox in 1930, six of the 11 Triple Crown winners (all but Sir Barton, War Admiral, Whirlaway, Citation & Affirmed) made visits to Jamaica and Aqueduct, with Omaha (Today) and Secretariat (Angle Light) both being upset in third place performances.
Three of the last four Derby winners ran here: 2003, Funny Cide second to Empire Maker; 2001, Monarchos second to Congaree; and 2000, winner Fusaichi Pegasus. But in addition to producing Derby winners, the Wood can always be counted on to feature colts, and fillies, of class. Genuine Risk (Plugged Nickel) was third in the Wood in 1980 before her Derby heroics, while Gallorette (1945) could not best the very good Jeep as part of a brilliant career in which she regularly beat colts and horses.
Wood winners Native Dancer (1953), Bold Ruler (1957 over Gallant Man), Damascus (1967), Broad Brush (1986) and Easy Goer (1989) may have failed to wear rose blankets, but are indicative of the kinds of horses that include a Wood Memorial victory on their Hall of Fame resumes.
Saturday's edition, the 81st, could be a free for all given that the first five finishers from the wild blanket finish Gotham are reunited here. The addition of speedy Bellamy Road, Going Wild and Scrappy T also assures a hot pace in an event that finds virtually every participant in need of a top placement to garner vital graded stakes earnings in the scramble for a Derby starting berth.
The 81st Gr. I WOOD MEMORIAL, AQU 9th, 9f, $750,000, All carry 123
1 SCRAPPY T (Bailes/Bejarano) 15-1: Wisely shelved by Bailes after intense and successful seven race Sept-Feb run including 11-1 Count Fleet surprise. Trifecta regular returns at attractive tote in tough spot, but gets rail and Raffy for this brass ring swipe. T-J combo 2 for 2, and expect usual game effort from this guy while hoping inner track wasn't the magic elixir for his winter success. A must use in gimmick slots at the least.
2 BYANOSEJOE (Dutrow/Santos) 12-1: First of the Gotham 5 here today dove to the rail in that frantic feature and has received least notice for finishing 1.5 lengths back. Shows solid, steady career growth since Dec. diploma, but is still a notch below the top ones here from a speed standpoint. Red hot Santos hops on for cagey Dutrow who's been racking up the wins since the Jamaica main reopened. One of three off pace types signed on, will saves the most ground over Survivalist and New Yorker, but is still tough to envision in brutally tough field.
3 BELLAMY ROAD (Zito/Castellano) 2-1: Savvy Steinbrenner OBS (4/04) buy, originally written off for Derby campaign due to injury, exploded on Trail scene 3/12 with 15+ length allowance assassination at GP under care of Zito. Fastest of the speed according to figs, but hoping to sit off today according to Nick. Castellano, who's been lighting it up in FL, makes the trip north to ride Concerto colt who shouldn't have trouble with the stretch-out. Is one of the only ones here who can "afford" less than a second and still make Derby. Will depress mutuels as likely fave, but is impossible to toss.
4 SURVIVALIST (McGaughey/Migliore) 5-1: True "survivor" of Gotham war gets acid test for pedigree power as son of Danzig and Mr. Prospector mare goes beyond 8f for the first time today. Shows classic sophomore development pattern pairing up efforts as he moves forward. Big A main meet leader Mig has piloted both career victories and figures to sit good trip no matter who gets sent early. Square at 5-1, and glory-eligible for 'old school' connections of the legendary black blouse with cherry cap.
5 GOING WILD (Lukas/V. Espinoza) 5-2: Speaking of legendary silks, the green and gold of Bob and Bev Lewis figures prominently as well today with Sham winner needing second or better performance to join stablemate Consolidator in Louisville. Lukas showing no fear with Golden Missile colt considering the options that were available to gain needed graded earnings. As we've flogged, only class of '05 member with 100+ sprint and route Beyers. Got unintended rating lesson in rough Santa Catalina trip which should come in handy today. Must fire best shot and will be no bargain at the windows.
6 PAVO (Pedersen/Bailey) 8-1: Paraneck purchase was hard luck DQ victim in Gotham group grope after jockey Garcia lost irons early and rode like a Sioux at Little Big Horn thereafter. Has found trouble, started poorly or been taken up in five of nine starts and needs it all to come together here and now. Addition of Bailey, who rarely rides for Jenn and Ernie, should help. But Marquetry chestnut is still just one of many from Gotham who have to eclipse the three newcomers in this affair.
7 GALLOPING GROCER (Schettino/Luzzi) 6-1: Last chance scenario has come up suddenly for heralded winter hoss that dueled Rockport Harbor so gamely when 2nd in last fall's Remsen. Schettino thinks displaced palette may have been culprit in Whirlaway-Gotham disappointments, and addition of figure eight bit has registered dividends in gelding's morning efforts leading up to this. Can't dawdle at the start given gate's position today or risks getting spun wide early. Now or never for Mrs. Waldbaum's A.P. Jet red.
8 NAUGHTY NEW YORKER (Kelly/Samyn) 10-1: We've been vocal about our perception that Kelly has not done right by this late-running NY-bred from Fox Ridge, with continued use of Jean-Luc and failure to find appropriate distance progression for a Quiet American bay that's crying to go longer. This is THE spot, and expect NNY won't be hurt by wide draw as Frenchman can cut behind four to his right who will be out early. Adds Lasix at the most opportune time, and figures close at the finish if Samyn can finally time it right. Will be an injustice if this one misses the run for the roses.
SELECTIONS:
1. Going Wild: We'll trust that D. Wayne continues to push the right buttons.
2. Naughty New Yorker: Capable, but admit we're rooting for him.
3. Bellamy Road: Can't toss knowing that Zito won't disappoint "Boss" in NY.
4. Survivalist: May peak perfectly for Shug & Phipps who deserve a Derby.
5. Scrappy T: Can't pass up 15-1 on game colt that fits exotics on figs.
ILLINOIS DERBY, HAW 7th, 9f, Gr. II, $500,000
An unusual field made the trip to Cicero for this edition of the Illinois Derby, and as many as two slots in the Kentucky Derby are up for grabs... The likelihood that at least one horse from the exacta here will be a visitor to Churchill May 7 that few in the crowd will be familiar with from early Derby Trail exploits.
1 GREELEY'S GALAXY (Stute/Desormeaux) 9/2: Stute speedster from CA got very good, very fast earning 95 Beyer when stretching out. Will be hard pressed not to regress off that effort, but gets advantageous starting spot from which to try under Kent D. (who didn't come to Chicago today for deep dish pizza).
2 MONARCH LANE (Pletcher/DeCarlo) 6-1: Pletcher sends Decarlo along with Maria's Mon chestnut that was a winter buzz horse. Chased Sun King and Survivalist in GP ALW and has worked steadily for this, but still needs a fig boost to get winner's share.
3 MAGNA GRADUATE (Byrne/Razo, Jr.) 4-1: Had long, strange trip in sealed track Lane's End 5th, and comes back quick for Byrne. ML 2nd choice adds strong local rider to package and should get quality pace-pressing voyage.
4 RIKMAN (Mott/Castillo, Jr.) 5-1: Herbie hitting at brisk 24% with re-invigorated Mott, so don't be put off by his getting the call. Got career best fig when returned to Big A main in last, and is another who should get trip he wants at notorious inside speed strip.
5 UNBRIDLED ENERGY (Walden/Bridgmohan) 6-1: Walden finally arrives on Derby Trail scene with this ouchy Unbridled's Song grey that jump-started soph season in nice GP ALW score last. Returned to track 10 days later -- a good sign of continued fitness -- and figures if able to stretch out comfortably.
6 MEDIGATING (O'Callaghan/L. Melancon) 12-1: French import failed to keep up in Sun King's TB Derby... Failed to keep up Lord Robyn's Tropical Park Derby... Will undoubtedly fail to keep up with the winner of THIS Derby...
7 WIN ME OVER (Williamson/Sterling) 20-1: Nice bay colt built bankroll facing IL-breds before trying open company last pair. Local horses traditionally do well in this event, but usually there's more than one in it. Hard pressed for anything other than last Super lot.
8 DADDY JOE (Pederson/Arroyo, Jr.) 10-1: Fact that Bailey gets Pavo in Wood for Pederson-Paragallo barnmate and Arroyo is here tells you all you need to know. Reverted to front end tactics in Rushaway 2nd last time but figures to lose ground versus the inside speed here. Is a notch slower than the top ones too.
9 KANSAS CITY BOY (McPeek/Emigh) 7/2: McPeek project has had circuitous Derby Trail route and gets worst of the slots for last ditch earnings effort today. Does get local pilot in irons to work out a trip though and still believe this one has some talent. Must come home with at least a placement to boost wallet. Capable, but shaky.
SELECTIONS:
1. Magna Graduate: Figuring the Turfway fiasco took nothing out.
2. Rikman: Lone winner at the trip could cruise with pair up to last.
3. Kansas City Boy: Willing to stay on board for one last try.
4. Unbridled Energy: Talented but with same old problems of sire.
5. Monarch Lane: Pletcher ship-ins have popped in these lesser events.
BETTING THE NTRA NATIONAL PICK THREE
The National Pick Three, a popular and often lucrative multi-track wager, kicks off this year with the Carter and Wood from Aqueduct and the IL Derby from Hawthorne as the third leg.
The Carter Handicap is one of the oldest races in the country, first run in 1895. Captain William Carter of Brooklyn, a contractor and tugboat captain, offered up the initial prize money 105 years ago ($500), and had the 7f classic named for him in appreciation. The Carter Handicap will always by remembered for the triple dead heat it produced in 1944, when Bossuet, Brownie, and Wait a Bit could not be separated at the wire, the only such finish in American stakes history. In 1999, Artax broke Dr. Fager’s seven-furlong Aqueduct track record (set in 1968), completing the seven furlongs in 1:20. That victory also established a new stakes record for the Carter Handicap. (From Aqueduct press notes)
The Wood Memorial Weekend Pick Three has been conducted since 1997, though usually comprised of the Wood, Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby. It's typical payoff is in the $150-$300, although in 1998 it came back worth $450 when Coronado's Quest, Halory Hunter and Victory Gallop swept the three preps. Most famously, the 1999 "3" paid a whopping $3,600 when Adonis won the Wood, Menifee the Blue Grass and notorious Valhol the Arkansas Derby. After Valhol's "shocking" win, it was discovered that jockey Billy Patin had used a "buzzer" which resulted in a suspension from which he only recently was reinstated.
First Leg: Carter (2)
Though we'd like to single Mr. and Mrs. Jones' FOREST DANGER here, MASS MEDIA showed an affinity for the Aqueduct 7f course when he crushed the Sport's Page last fall. We'll use them both.
Second Leg: Wood (6)
BELLAMY ROAD, SCRAPPY T, GOING WILD, PAVO, SURVIVALIST and NAUGHTY NEW YORKER provide a variety of coverage here with speed, presser, stalker and closer styles all covered. Scrappy, Pavo or New Yorker would make the bet worth hitting.
Third Leg: IL Derby (2)
MAGNA GRADUATE and RIKMAN make a lot of sense in this spot. They are the two fastest horses most likely to maintain their current form level on a speed-kind oval.
2 x 6 x 2 = $24
Santa Anita Derby Preview to follow..