MORNING LINE ODDS?

[hoarsebet]

ARE THERE ANY STUDIES AROUND THAT SHOW HOW OFTEN THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE ACTUALLY GOES OFF AS THE FAVORITE?

I HAPPEN TO THINK THAT THE MORNING LINE IS A POWERFUL INFLUENCE ON THE PUBLIC.

[OTM Al]

I did something similar once when looking at morning line as predictor for winner as opposed to final odds. Final odds, as should be expected did about 3% better than morning line, which is statistically significant considering the size of the sample...thus a partial answer to your question would be very frequently, but the public still knows better than the oddsmaker in the long run.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Stop shouting!
I agree but if anything M/L favorites are probably bet down more. I know of no studies- you can make your own using Equibase.

[GameTheory]

In 2004, all tracks, the ML favorite was the post-time favorite approx. 65% of the time, which includes ties of either the ML or the post-time odds. (i.e. if there were co-favorites in the odds, and either one of them was the ML favorite then that counts, and vice-versa)

[BillW]

Stop shouting!


Hmmm, might be causing the hoarseness :eek:. (Sorry couldn't resist - now back to being on topic)

Bill