In Memory of the Que

[FortuneHunter]

Since our resident database guy, Que, is off in some foriegn land, it appears that he won't be posting his 3YO figures for the classics.

So, I will fill in and give our computer ratings (Speed, Pace, Turn Time, Velocity, etc., etc) for the 25 Derby entries.

Click the link below:

http://www.handicappers-datamine.com/cgi-bin/UltraBoard/UltraBoard.cgi?action=Read&BID=1&TID=1929&SID=103597

Good Luck, FH

[superfecta]

Hey, FH,
where is the glossary for your program?I don't know how you got your ratings,so I need to get a better understanding of what I'm looking at.Thanx

[FortuneHunter]

Super,
All our stuff is based off the BRISnet Speed and Pace Figures

This link gives a pretty good glossary of the Worksheet.

http://www.handicappers-datamine.com/WhatIsWorksheet/WhatIsWorksheet.htm

Turn Time Report is new and needs a glossary.

The Turn Time report lists the BRIS E1, E2, LP, SP figures (see www.brisnet.com for an explanation of these figures) for the most recent race of the same “type” the entry has run. Also, Turn Time (E2-E1) and E2 + TT are calculated and ranked. The HDM Predicted Speed figure and the HDM S/P figure are also listed and are the same as on the HDM TruForm Worksheets. Entries are listed by HDM Predicted Speed Rank in ascended order, Rank 1 first and so on.

The race types are:

Dirt Sprint (1-Turn)
Dirt Route (2-Turn)
Turf

The race used for the entry’s Paceline today is the last race the entry ran of the same type.

The ranking of each entry for each of the eight Figures listed is adjacent to the Fig in parenthesis in blue. The rank is for this race. A rank of 1 means that this entry has the highest Fig for today’s race. A rank of 2 means that this entry has the second highest Fig for today’s race, and so on. Rank of “99” means the entry doesn’t have a race of the same type in the last 5 PP lines to evaluate for today’s race.

For Sprint (1-turn) Races, the last Sprint Race is used
For Route (2-turn) Races, the last Route Race is used
For Turf Races, the last Turf Race is used

The “line” underneath the Entries Program Number, Name, and Morning Line is the entries “last race” as follows:

Date, Track, Race Number, Dist (furlongs), course, track condition, E1, E2, TT, E2+TT, LP, SPD, and HDM Predicted Speed, HDM S/P. The HDM Predicted Speed and HDM S/P are not for the “last race” of the same type as today. These figures are based on most recent races and are right off the TruForm Worksheet.

Last Race of the same type as today is defined as:

The most recent race of the same type, and on a fast track. Otherwise, the race is skipped and the next most recent race is evaluated. Only last 5 PP lines are evaluated.

Ties in the rankings of a particular figure are broken by looking at the next race back of the same type. If a tie still exists, then beaten lengths of last race of the same type is used to break the tie.

Think that covers the explanation.

We are still to evaluating these figs and ranks to see if these figs and ranks point to winners. The E2+TT fig is one of special interest.

We have just added a new figure to the Turn Time Report. It is the Velocity Figure. It is the average of the E1, E2, LP figures of the last race of the same type.

Questions and comments are always welcome.

Good Luck, FH

[andicap]

FH,
My method is basic on formulas from info you provided. Anyway I can get the last 3 pacelines for each horse through Perfect Drift sent to me via email?

So far, based on that one paceline, I have Buddha, Medaglia and Sunday Break as the top horses. Harlan's Holiday is a great bet-against IMHO. He does well in neither my EP/AP or HE categories. In fact he's a total throwout unless his other lines qualify him.

I'm a little suspicious, however, of the figures for the Wood memorial because the E2 figs are so out of whack with everyone else's. And there's always the chance the Wood horses could bounce a little with only a 3-week break. Or they could pair up!

Anyway I need to see form cycle and other pace lines before making final choice, but Came Home really looks weak here.

Big unknown is Essence of Dubai -- no rating.
Johannesburg had a nice rating from the BC Classic -- really something to build on -- but one 7f race since then? Hard to bet on unless great, great odds. Breeding of course is questionable.