Preps for the Derby

[classhandicapper]

It appears that many of this year's contenders are taking an unconventional route to the Derby. Some will have only 1 or 2 preps. Others will come in after a 5 week layoff.

Here's some comments from Steve Davidowitz on Blues and Royal to get the ball rolling.

Any thoughts?

http://www.trackmaster.com/retail/info/bb04025.htm

[kenwoodallpromos]

Lots of "ifs" in racing.
That was a good race for Blues. I do not know if the horse has experience being competitive at the wire and how he would do. But that is true of a number of this year's entrants.
At this point I assume a mild closer who is close to the pace will win the Derby, since the track should be "normal" speed again.
Right now I would hesitate to bet that whoever he or she is that wins the Derby will win the Preakness.

[rastajenk]

Some historical trends have taken a kick in the 'nads in recent years; no reason not to look elsewhere and anywhere for potential Derby winners. If Blues and Royals wins, a bunch of established truths about Derby preparations can be tossed on the scrapheap known as "conventional wisdom."

[cj]

Conventional wisdom = backfitting, and that rarely provides a profit. :D In other words, conventional = overbet.

[classhandicapper]

I have much less of a problem with coming in off 5 weeks than I do with coming in with only 1 or 2 preps. There has been a few horses in the latter category that I thought would run well that didn't and the idea of needing a good bottom to get a spring 3YO ready for 10F makes sense to me. However, I am willing to overlook both completely in cases where I am sure the trainer is competent at the task and able to prepare a horse for a really tough 10F race with less racing. I believe Zito and Frankel fall into that category. For trainers I am less certain of, I might just insist on an extra tick on the odds board "just in case". ;)

[cj]

I was considering the Dubai horse because the ohter horses had looked so weak so far this year, but the Florida Derby was a HUGE step up in my opinion, and now the horse doesn't look dominant number wise like he did before. It would take a few extra clicks for me as well, and I have a feeling he is going to be this year's "wise guy" horse, which is never really the wise horse to bet!

[Bruddah]

So far, this years supposed contenders have shown me ,they are nothing but "slow boats to China". I am not sure, all won't be spitting the bit with the final 1/8th to go.

I am still looking for the horse that can rate behind a solid pace and finish the final quarter under 25 sec. My opinion only, we are going to see a final time around 2:03+.

If you ever doubted there would be an effect of the Mare Reproductive Loss Syndrome, all you need to do is look at this years group of 3 year olds. I find myself asking, "and these are the best of this generation?" They are a sad group. (JMHO)

[JPinMaryland]

I kindof agree with what Bruddah is saying, it is hard to find a closer who can stay close and finish in 25. Perhaps Dont Get Mad is capable of a real fast close, but he keeps winding up near the rail and not in position to pass the leader. Bandini can probably finish in 25, hope he can get back on the trail. Greater Good may be the best closer...

If you want a presser/just off the pace type; it's got to be Sweet Catomine. She's looking more likely for the derby every week.