The Great Johnny V & Saratoga

[DrugSalvastore]

I'm a trip handicapper more than anything else--and I feel that jockey's are mildly overrated in the handicapping process--but I still think it is very wise to study them and find the strengths and weaknesses of each jock as well as to figure out who's great, who's decent, and who's dreadful.

John Velazquez is unarguably the best jockey in America right now. As a trip-handicapper it isn't always easy to appreicate his brilliance. Like ex-Viking wide reciever Randy Moss--he has a bad habit of dogging it and not always giving a good effort. He also isn't the guy who finds perfect trips from off-the pace, he isn't the best at detecting a bias, he's average at best with deep closers, and he isn't quite as good as Bailey at setting traps. Some think he's only who he is because he rides first call for Pletcher, but they are wrong. His genius is mainly with rating speed horses on or near the pace. He's out-of-this-world with any kind of tactical speed horse--and that running style wins the bulk of the races.

Johnny V has been a one-man recking crew at Saratoga ever since 2000. He's ridden nearly 1,000 races over that span--and he shows a huge flat bet profit. His ROI is also MUCH higher when riding for trainers other than Pletcher. He's strongly underbet when riding for trainer's other than Pletch. Here are his stats over the past five Spa meets.

YEAR STATS $2ROI
2000- 10 for 48 20.8% wins $5.26
2001- 52-for-260 20.0% W $1.81
2002- 41-for-221 18.6% W $1.86
2003- 61-for-235 26.0% W $2.50
2004- 65-for-227 29.0% W $2.01

I don't have the stats to back this up--but I think JRV is just shy of break even ($2 ROI) in all of the sprint races he's run over the past ten years. Very impressive when you consider the high takeout as well as the insanely large number of starts. When Prado or Bailey give a horse a perfect trip from a bad post--or when they save ground on the turns and slice through the pack to victory--those are the easy perfect trips to detect and praise. When a tactical speed horse is rated to perfection and moves at just the right time, that is the kind of perfect trip that doesn't always get the high praise. That said, give me Prado or Bailey with off-the-pace types any day!

[Valuist]

I'm convinced the talking heads and public only like speed when its "definitive speed"; speed that will clear. How often have you been to the track or watched on TVG when there's three horses who figure to be near the pace and somebody always says "give me the deep closer; there's SURE to be a vicious duel" and the duel never materializes? I think the "lay 2nd" trip is probably one of the better trips in racing yet isn't recognized as such.

That said re: pressers, I don't like pressers who figure to be 3 wide (or wider) at either the FG or Saratoga, where the turn is fairly sharp.

[the little guy]

John Velasquez is a good rider who rides for Todd Pletcher. He is not " unarguably " the best rider in America, as Edgar Prado is certainly better.

But, like others said, jockey's importance is massively overrated.

[headhawg]

little guy,

I agree with you somewhat -- jockeys are an overrated factor (although I wouldn't say massively) -- on the dirt anyway. Turf routes, however, are an entirely different matter. I believe that if you don't take jockey/trainer abilities into consideration on the sod, you're not likely to do as well playing those types of races.

Case in point -- the 7th race at Tam on Sunday 4/3. The morning line fave was #3 Creek's Shore and I thought deservedly so. I had him 2-1 in my line, and really figured it to bet well below that. The public fell in love with the 11 Crete, however, probably due to it having the best recent turf fig. They bet it down to 6-5 favoritism. The 11's jock Yang had a 5% overall winning percentage, and in my database I didn't show him having a turf win (trainer had good turf stats, though). The 3 had the best overall turf tr/jck stats and an extremely competitive turf fig, just a couple of points behind the 11. I was in the War Room and I would have played it at 2-1, but it wound up paying $8.60 which I thought was a gift. (The fave was 5th.)

Now I know that there are successful players that don't use stats, but IMO there are times that they are a necessity.

HH

[DrugSalvastore]

John Velasquez is a good rider who rides for Todd Pletcher. He is not " unarguably " the best rider in America, as Edgar Prado is certainly better.

But, like others said, jockey's importance is massively overrated.

Little guy, you can think that, but you are wrong! Prado falls asleep on up-close types way too often. It's really painful to watch how bad his timing can be on those kind of horses. He does do great work with mid-pack types. He's opposite of JRV in many ways. I'm not a big stats guy--but it's worth looking at stats on this subject. A guy like Herberto Castillo Jr. shows a 50%+ loss on the betting dollar year in and year out. A guy like Vic Espinoza out West shows a flat bet profit with route horses year in an year out. That said, it's wise to say that the jockey is overrated in the handicapping process the overwhelming majority of the time.

[toetoe]

The man says it's inarguable, and there you go arguin'! Yer breedin' must be "Little Guy (ARG.)."

[the little guy]

In general, the best horse will probably win, regardless of rider. People who pay a lot of attention to jockeys are losers at the windows. That's a fact. Obviously some riders are better than others, but it is really about access to the best mounts, as the top riders get the better mounts, and thus win more.

Obviously there are certain riders that are inept at any circuit, Diane Nelson and Herb Castillo in NY, and a switch from them to a capable rider can help, but in a horse still needs the talent. Jockeys major purpose is for us to have someone to blame when we refuse to admit we were wrong.

I don't disagree that a rider makes more difference on the turf, and this is where Jerry Bailey particularly excelled, and an area where John Velasquez is mediocre. Funny, Pletcher doesn't have a lot of turf horses. Johnny is a very good rider, that I don't dispute, but the notion that he is somehow special ( in the way that Bailey or Cordero were ) is simply foolish.

[toetoe]

Guy,

I'll give you two J.L. Samyns for one Diane Nelson, or Shaun Bridgmohan AND Aaron Gryder for EITHER one Channing Hill OR one Alan Garcia.

[DrugSalvastore]

I don't disagree that a rider makes more difference on the turf, and this is where Jerry Bailey particularly excelled, and an area where John Velasquez is mediocre. Funny, Pletcher doesn't have a lot of turf horses. Johnny is a very good rider, that I don't dispute, but the notion that he is somehow special ( in the way that Bailey or Cordero were ) is simply foolish.

Little Guy, I hate nothing more than to resort to stats in order to win an argument--but if that's what it's going to take.

Here is JRV's stats in all TURF races at Saratoga from 2000-to-2003. He's 49-for-249 (that's 19.7% wins) and his $2ROI is $2.32 (that's a 16% profit on the betting dollar!) I know what you are thinking Little Guy--that's only Saratoga, what about the other tracks? Well, if you go to the Thorograph sheets website, and pull up the sheet of a turf horse that JRV is riding, you will see that he showed a flat profit with all turf horses in the year 2004. I would post the stats here---but knowing how lawsuit happy Jerry Brown is capable of being...I'll leave it up to you to look.

It pains me to have to resort to stats--but I think that is the only chance I have of getting you to see that JRV isn't a mediocre turf rider. No sense arguing on any further for me---maybe you don't like him because he dated your girlfriend. Who knows.

[John]

DrugSAl,

I have to agree with Andy and go with Baily as the best on turf.

Do you have any stats on Jerry Baily for turf.

[DrugSalvastore]

DrugSal sounds almost respectable--just call me DrugS.

These are stats from the TG sheets on Aug. 28th. You can also view the one's I'm looking at on thorograph's website. Just go to Race Of The Week archives, and pull up the Fourstardave Stakes from Aug 28th. I have a TG account, and use them during Saratoga when my betting handle skyrocket's, but I'm not really a sheet player. The guy running TG is a very bright man. Anyway

JOHN VELASQUEZ (last 12 months)
STARTS WINS WIN% $2 ROI
Overall: 1,319 313 23.7 $1.93
TURF: 397 92 23.2 $2.43
Route: 742 172 23.2 $2.05
Slop: 169 42 24.9 $1.80
Saratoga: 235 61 26.0 $2.51

It's a hard sell to prove that JRV is a mediocre jockey in turf races off those stats. He's upset two Breeders Cup Turf races with Da Hoss and Starine. Maybe The Little Guy can get Karl Rove on speed dial--he'd have you convinced that JRV belongs at Sunland Park with Ted Gondran.

Does it get any worse than arguing over jockey's? Maybe we can do religion and politics next! It's like 5AM...even though I'm an insomniac I do need to get some sleep. I have to be up in time to bet the races tomorrow. I need to make money to support my drug and calzone habit...it's been fun though.

I'll leave it to The Little Guy to start a new thread on how Barry Bonds has no power and would be a no-name if he hit at a more pitcher friendly park. G'night.

[PaceAdvantage]

How about we all take a deep breath, and attempt a cutback on the sarcasm? Ok?

[the little guy]

I am just going to step back and soak up as much knowledge from this recent addition to the board as I possibly can. After reading his profile and seeing he was 23 I remembered when I was 23 and I harkened back to Bob Dylan, as I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now.

[headhawg]

I have to agree with Andy and go with Baily as the best on turf.

Do you have any stats on Jerry Baily for turf.

John,

Going from memory, I have Bailey at 23% wins on turf at a -21% roi. Based on roughly 800 turf starts in my database. Just for comparison, J V is at 20% and -1% roi (1000 starts)

And the thing about Bailey, stats aside, is how he always seems to put his horse in a position to win on the turf. I rarely see him get boxed, and even in traffic he seems to be able to predict where the hole is going to be and when it's going to open up. A master.

But I definitely agree that there are other very good turf jocks and they, more often that not, seem to offer more value than Bailey.

HH

[cj]

The problem with using ROI to determine the ability of a jockey is that the jockey himself is a major part of the returns paid on his winning mounts.

So Velasquez is a better jockey to invest in on the sod then JB is, but it doesn't mean he is better.

A lot of guys could ride for Pletcher right now and look like the best around. It's all relative.

[keilan]

I am just going to step back and soak up as much knowledge from this recent addition to the board as I possibly can. After reading his profile and seeing he was 23 I remembered when I was 23 and I harkened back to Bob Dylan, as I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now.



23yo nah -- don't think so, this is the internet. :)

[GMB@BP]

[QUOTE=the little guy]
Obviously there are certain riders that are inept at any circuit, Diane Nelson and Herb Castillo in NY, and a switch from them to a capable rider can help, but in a horse still needs the talent. Jockeys major purpose is for us to have someone to blame when we refuse to admit we were wrong.
QUOTE]

My money is that stuart elliot has taken Herbs spot on the NYRA circuit.

[Pace Cap'n]

Jockeys major purpose is for us to have someone to blame when we refuse to admit we were wrong.


Or, as a friend of mine says, the only reason they have jockeys is because the horse doesn't know how long the race is.

[Observer]

I do not agree that riders in general do not make much difference on a horse .. and I'm not talking about the extreme rider changes. Heck, get a rider in the right or wrong frame of mind, and that itself could make a HUGE difference, without a rider change.

Anyway .. if it's going to be pointed out that Velazquez does much of his riding for Pletcher, who isn't really a "turf trainer" .. than as a reminder .. when Bailey was still developing into exceptional .. he was with Mott .. a "turf trainer" .. so it could be argued that Bailey got to hone his skills just as Velazquez is doing now.

Velazquez still has years ahead of him .. let time tell where exactly he'll fit into racing history. At this point, he's off to a good start.

[DrugSalvastore]

23yo nah -- don't think so, this is the internet. :)

I may act like I'm 13 much of the time--but I can assure you--I'm 23 years old.

I'll give you a bio of myself--since that is what other newbie's seem to be doing.

My parents both trained horses and my uncle and grandfather always bet them. I started reading the form before I was 10 years old. I bet regularly through my childhood. I'm an enthusatic fan of racing and betting. I attended the same high school as Andy Beyer...it's worth noting that Andy Beyer, Pittsburgh Phil, and Myself are all Northwestern PA born. So not only does our area produce a dispropotionate number of legendary Quarterbacks--but it also produces a disproportionate number of legendary bettors.

I've never worked a job for longer than seven months--I've done okay for myself as far as getting by with betting income--but I'm hardly close to being rich anytime soon. Last year I went to Churchill Downs and worked for a trainer who has won the Kentucky Oaks among other big races. I only lasted six weeks--I decided I'd rather stick with betting than training for now.

I've owned three horses--though I must be honest and tell you that they ran for 4-to-5K Claiming tags at Mountaineer...no super horses. I'm either an unknown or a near unknown in the handicapping world. I got a five minute interview on a national radio show before the Belmont last year. Something I probably didn't have the qualifications for--but I think they wanted me on because I was the only sane handicapper available who had a very negative opinion about Smarty Jones--and was willing to guarentee his defeat. In my finest moment of public humiliation, I picked Rock Hard Ten to win with confidence and declared that SJ was extremley vulnerable. RHT came off the bridel and quit on the far turn...and SJ, who ran the best race of any horse in the field, got nailed late to save me from looking like a complete idiot in my moment in the spotlight.

I bet from my computer or over the phone mostly--though I do go to Saratoga every year--I always like betting the races and meeting a few people I know from up there. I've been a regular poster on the AOL board for a while. I'm a legend over there. Some love me--some hate me--but they all like me in a love/hate kind of way.

In my private life I really enjoy doing drugs and chilling with my friends. I'm not into hard drugs at all--but I think every person ought to enjoy themselves and gamble and smoke a little. The Christian guy that comes to the door and passes out his little booklet--the booklet says that gambling and drugs are bad. So, I'll enjoy life that much more now, since I'm destined for an after-life of burning to a crisp in the fires of hell!

[PaceAdvantage]

Truth be told, until recently, newbies never felt the need to "announce" themselves.

This has been a sudden, rather profuse, and very unusual phenomenon.

[the little guy]

Can I suggest some ego reduction drugs?

[PaceAdvantage]

I've been a regular poster on the AOL board for a while. I'm a legend over there. Some love me--some hate me--but they all like me in a love/hate kind of way.

Didn't they shut that place down years ago?

[the little guy]

Didn't they shut that place down years ago?No more than 23.

[the little guy]

Truth be told, until recently, newbies never felt the need to "announce" themselves.

This has been a sudden, rather profuse, and very unusual phenomenon.Not to mention boorish.

[DrugSalvastore]

Can I suggest some ego reduction drugs?

It's more sarcasm than ego.

PA doesn't like sarcasm--The Little Guy doesn't like ego--fair enough!

I'll be DrugS Light from now on.

truth be told, I only came here because I was rather impressed with what I saw in reading over some of the posts. From what I've seen, I have a very high degree of respect for the knowlege level that's on this board.

I can tell I've been annoying--it's kinda obvious. If PA see's fit to banish me, that's his desicion, and I can deal with it.

[GMB@BP]

It's more sarcasm than ego.

PA doesn't like sarcasm--The Little Guy doesn't like ego--fair enough!

.

thats pretty dam funny, at least for me it is

[PaceAdvantage]

PA doesn't like sarcasm--The Little Guy doesn't like ego--fair enough!

Wow. You go from not knowing who I am on another thread:

I'm going to respond to a guy with the same exact name as the website

...to calling me "PA", to parroting the same junk others spew:

If PA see's fit to banish me...

How very peculiar!

I'll ask you the same follow-up question I ask all the others who spew that line.....why would I "banish" you?? Have you done something that violates the Terms of this message board?

[toetoe]

Drugzee,

That was right out of Dr. Evil, that rambling, shambling, thank-you-ma'ambling soliloquy. Nice guy, but just coming off a wee bit self-absorbed. Try my method: irritate with quick, pithy witticisms, then get off, to fight again another day.

[DrugSalvastore]

I'll ask you the same follow-up question I ask all the others who spew that line.....why would I "banish" you?? Have you done something that violates the Terms of this message board?

I've seen you called PA--and it's kind of akward to call a person Pace Advantage all the time. Remember, I did say I read stuff on the board before joining, I don't know if you missed that part in the post. The Little Guy is what they call Doug Flutie..but I doubt The Little Guy is actually Doug Flutie. Note how I called City Zip "CZ" but didn't call Iniside Info "II"

You make it sound like i'm involved in some kind of conspiracy--I'm not Johnny V's agent and I'm certainly not Velazquez. I would hope that wasn't what you were getting at. I can promise you I have nothing to sell either. I'm not a tout, and certainley am not involved with the press. So I don't quite understand why you seem to be so stunned that I called you PA. From now on--I'll just call you Pace. (I think it sounds better than Advantage, but if you would rather be called advantage--just say so.)

The reason why I think you could justifibly ban me--Mr. Pace--is because you seem to be a bit annoyed by me--and if it was my board--and someone was annoying me...I'd banish there ass! But, It's possible that you could be a better man than I....

I may have an ego or whatever--but I think that has helped me as a horse player. I do a much better job of hiding my ego in person than over a computer. I'm super easy going in person. This is starting to sound like Dr.Phil stuff.

I should be euthanized for even starting this dreadful thread about my love for Johnny V. He's come through for me in the clutch. Prado, on the other hand, seems to ride great races to beat me and saves some of his more mediocre rides up for when I have bets on him. I think The Little Guy probably has had the opposite happen to him. That's why he steadfastly likes Prado and doesn't show a great deal of respect for JRV. The only reason I got the best of him in the arguement is because I was defending JRV--while he was just knocking JRV...had the arguement been me knocking Prado--while he was defending Prado..he would have scored a victory. Both are great riders! May this jockey thread die a slow miserable death:)

[PaceAdvantage]

I've seen you called PA--and it's kind of akward to call a person Pace Advantage all the time.

If you think my nickname is awkward, you should try "DrugSalvastore!!!" :lol:

I wasn't stunned that you called me PA. I just thought it was a little weird the way you acted in the first thread, where you introduced yourself. In that thread, you acted as if you didn't know why I was named PaceAdvantage. (I'll admit having a user name the same as the website is a bit odd, but hell, I never thought this place would stick around this long, so I guess I didn't put much thought into my user name!!! LOL)

[keilan]

(I'll admit having a user name the same as the website is a bit odd, but hell, I never thought this place would stick around this long, so I guess I didn't put much thought into my user name!!! LOL)


Geez when I joined this site in 2001 it was totally hip :cool:

[AQUEBUCKS]

Aquebucks' "two cents" on Johnny "V". I've been watching him develop as a rider ever since the time Cordero stiffed his horse and let him win his first race at Aqueduct. I believe Steve Klesaris was his agent at that time. Cordero has taught him well, but Johnny has developed his own style. I agree with the previous posts that portray him as a "presser" style jock. Hey, it works for him. Also notice that he (for the most part) always puts his horses in a position to win. As far as his "turf" abilities, I believe he has always been a good turf rider. Probably even better on the turf than he was on dirt in his first few years on the New York circuit.

I like Johnny "V", and attribute a lot of his success to Cordero/Pletcher, but the guy you ALL need to follow is Javier Castellano. He is in my eyes "worth his weight in Gold". He is as versatile as versatile can be. His agent Mike Kelley really landed under a lucky star when he dropped Steve Adika. Mike is no Ron Anderson or Bob Frieze, but he has "unequivocally" the best jockey in the country, and you all watch this guy go to the TOP!!!

AQUEBUCKS

[GeTydOn]

Big thanks to Aquebucks for getting this painful thread back on topic!

[pandy]

I've always felt that jockeys generally get too much credit in the handicapping process and that "jockey predjudice" will hurt your bottom line. Find the best horse at the best value and stick to high percentage trainers and you can't go wrong. However, like most fans of the sport, I have my favorites. I also realize that certain jockeys have styles, or skills, that give them an advantage in certain types of races. For instance, Bailey on turf. But overall, in my opinion, there are a handful of jockeys that really move horses up, masterful riders. Cordero, Shoemaker, Pincay, and Krone are a few I can think of. The last summer that Krone worked, two Del Mar's ago, she finished a close 2nd to to P. Val, but overall he got much better horses. Krone's riding was in another hemisphere. Almost all the races in So. Cal are won by horses close to the pace, but Krone consistently won with deep closers, as well as speed horses. Although some of her magic was skill and experience, I think you have to admit that horses just run their eyeballs out for some jockeys. Julie Krone was weightless on a horse and when she was riding off the pace, she would seemingly move too late, but the horse would explode and she's get up in plenty of time. Masterful. When a jockey is that good, it makes it easier to decide between two top contenders.