HOL Race 1 Late Money

[rrbauer]

Today I saw the biggest hammer job of all time at a major track.
R1 HOL
I'm on the 6 horse with a Place bet. It is 6/5 in the win pool with less than 1/5 of the place pool.
The entry is 2/1 in the win pool (place pool fav). The 7 is 4/1 in the win pool (place pool 3rd fav).

Those are the odds when they're in the gate.
Race goes.
5,6,1 go early. 7 tracks.
6 makes the lead on FT. 7 2nd.
7 goes by and draws out mid-stretch. 6 is clear for 2nd.

Final odds:
7 is 2/5 (not a typo folks)
6 is 9/2
1 is 4/1

Prices: 7 2.80 6.00 2.40
6 5.40 2.40
1 2.10
Pools 223143 43034 18049

Based on the pool totals I'm thinking a $100k win bet did the damage.

Phew!

Rich

[GameTheory]

Yeah, looks about right. My toteboard data shows on the last update of the win pool the #7 got $117,518. The final second favorite, which was the favorite at 7/5, got only 6k something and jumped up to 4-1...

[tanda]

I have been giving this problem a lot of thought recently.

As most of you know, I have posted some test results of software on this site. Along with the handicapping module, I have been testing an automated betting module. It scans the toteboards and places wagers according to programmed parameters.

When I play one track, it places the bet at 2 MTP or less. It cycles through the tracks to be played that day. It needs about 40 seconds to review a toteboard. Using 1 MTP is risky since it may cycle through at 1:01 to post (showing 2 MTP) and by the time it returns and processes again and places the wager it may be 0 MTP and the betting is closed.

If I play more than one race at a time (which is a big reason for the automation process), I need to give it more time.

Then, BRISBet has begun to occassionally close the betting shortly after 0 MTP even if the horses have not approached the gate. So, 0 MTP may actually be 3 minutes before the actual off-time. That is another reason to place automated wagers at 1 MTP and not cut it close.

So, let's imagine a bet placed at 2 MTP.

1) The 2 MTP odds reflect the host track pools seconds before 2 MTP.

2) It does not necessarily include all of the off-track wagering uo to that time.

3) Tremendous money comes in in the last couple of minutes.

4) 2 MTP may actually be 5 MTP.

The result is that less than 25% of the money may be reflected in the 2 MTP toteboard.

The problem is not that much better a 0 MTP especially when the race goes off minutes late.

I knew these problems existed when planning the program. However, I underestimated the severity of the problem. Hence, it is causing major problems with the odds parameters that I am using since the the 2 MTP odds are often significantly different from the off-odds.

Since odds are still being updated minutes after off-time, on occasion, it makes me wonder why the industry cannot have closer to real-time reporting of odds. A one minute lag is ridiculous. The problem of heavy late action cannot be helped. But real-time updates (not just every minute) with close to zero lag are possible. Also, outlets should transmit their wagers in real-time as received. I understand some outlets only send in their simulcast money once at the close of betting. That is ridiculous as well.

In the example above, it may have been simulcast money (not one big 100k wager) that put all that money on the horse. And much of that money could have been wagered several minutes before post-time. Ridiculous as well.

[rrbauer]

From Mike Marten who is the PIO for the Calif Horse Racing Board:

"Someone wagered $115,000 through the Lewiston, Maine, wagering hub in the closing seconds before the first race at Hollywood Park on the 2-year-old filly Global Finance, who had finished seventh (beaten four lengths) in her career debut March 27 at Santa Anita. Global Finance, who is owned and trained by Jerry Dutton, won her second start Wednesday easily. She paid $2.80 to win and $6 to place.

"Fans at Hollywood Park were confused because the money came in just before the race. She had been 5 to 1 a minute before the race. Even track announcer Vic Stauffer thought the posted mutuels were wrong because it happened so suddenly. However, they were legitimate wagers. The senior auditor for the California Horse Racing Board, John Reagan, confirmed that the wagers were processed before the stop-wager command was issued and before the start of the race. They were processed as 23 separate $5,000 win wagers just seconds before the start.

"Lewiston serves as a wagering hub for telephone accounts and other wagering systems, so the bets could have been made elsewhere, then funneled into the Hollywood Park wagering pool through Lewiston. There was no immediate information on where the bets originated."

You know what I know!

[Figman]

Lewiston Maine is the northeast hub for United Tote, one of the three major tote companies in the United States. This could be money from New York, New Hampshire or even Maine. There are over 100 outlets in New York State alone that are serviced by United Tote. However, New York is eliminated from this Hollywood scenario as no Hollywood Park wagering is allowed until Aqueduct is finished for the day. The first race would not qualify.

[FortuneHunter]

I would be looking for the "whale" with the direct link into the Lewiston Maine Hub, like the situation in Montana last year.

I don't think this type of thing happens in the NYRA pools. I could be wrong?

[PaceAdvantage]

The whale from Montana would not have screwed his win price like that.....but then again, a sure thing is a sure thing....


I think the most interesting thing to come of this thread is the fact that tanda has a program which contains an automatic betting module!!!! Tanda, please tell me MORE (in the Software Section of course)!!!


==PA

[anotherdave]

34.20 exacta $2. 2-5 on top of 4-1. There is some value for you exotics players!

AD

[GameTheory]

Tanda,

Which toteboard are you using? My toteboard grabber uses racingchannel as it is easier to deal with and updates more often than the one at BRIS. I have not yet automated the wager-placing part, but I have it set to make an audible beep and a notice on the screen when certain parameters are satisfied. I generally make my bets at 1 MTP, and as long as BrisBet is responding properly, have never had a problem getting them down.

Although you can never do anything about huge late action, I believe you can do a decent job of predicting the final odds by looking at the general trend in the 6 to 2 MTP period. You can usually get a feel for who is going to go down further, and who is going to rise slightly at the last minute. I think these predictions could be automated as well.

40 seconds seems like a long-time to survey the toteboard -- is that on a dial-up? I'm on a cable modem and grab & process all win-place-show pool info for all live tracks every 15 seconds (which is the interval the racingchannel pages refresh at in your browser), sometimes with 15 tracks or so (takes about a second a track). There are usually only 1-2 actual updates a minute. They seem to be on something around a 40 second cycle for updates -- so sometimes there are two updates in a particular minute, other times only one. Then once in a while at certain tracks, there is a real update every 15 seconds. (I believe these things may be track-specific.)

The updates aren't always complete, either. The win pool may show a change, but the other pools stay the same -- then on the next update, the place & show pools change but not the win. (This actually happened in the last minute of the race at Hollywood.)

[superfecta]

Originally posted by anotherdave
34.20 exacta $2. 2-5 on top of 4-1. There is some value for you exotics players!

AD Hey, it gets better than that,superfecta pays $359.10 for a buck,which has the favs running ITM.Severe overlay,too bad we can't predict when the exotics are out of whack......

[Figman]

Here are a couple of interesting articles about RGS, Inc.

CDI To Provide Simulcast Accounting Services To Racing & Gaming Services, Inc.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (May 18, 2001) -- Churchill Downs Incorporated (Nasdaq: CHDN) ("CDI") and Racing & Gaming Services Inc. ("RGS") announced today that the two parties have entered into an agreement whereby CDI, through the Churchill Downs Simulcast Network ("CDSN"), would provide simulcast accounting services to RGS, a telephone account wagering operation based in St. Kitts, West Indies.
"We have begun to consolidate our simulcast settlement operations throughout CDSN, and we are pleased to offer this accounting service to RGS as one of our simulcast customers," said John R. Long, CDI's executive vice president and chief operating officer.

Birmingham (Alabama) Race Course is one of a growing number of US tracks that has sub-contracted its off-track betting operations to an offshore gambling service that handles racing bets for clients around the country. Racing and Gaming Services Ltd (RGS) in St. Kitts contracts with the Birmingham Race Course to supply it with bets. The Birmingham Racing Commission allows the track to operate as a "hub," or processing center, for other betting operations, including RGS. The client places a bet - either by phone or via the Internet - with the betting operation, which transfers it to the track. Superficially it would seem that these operations are just as vulnerable under the Wire Act as Jay Cohen's Antiguan betting site.
Claude Williams, executive secretary of the Birmingham Racing Commission, said that the Commission used to follow the track's relationship with RGS, but because money isn't being bet from Birmingham, and therefore is not subject to state and local taxes, it no longer does so.
It seems that similar arrangements are widespread throughout the US, although this is news - big news, apparently - to regulators. "I never heard of such a thing," said Racing Commissioner Gary White, "I'm going to ask some questions because I want to know about it."