Derby: Early TMM Analysis

[kingfin66]

Here is some preliminary Master Magician analysis for the Derby. Please be advised, these numbers are very sketchy as they only include prep races. Most horses, in fact, have only 1 race in their Form Cycle Window. What I did was calculate the 2nd call time for each horse from its last race (Fla Derby and Winstar included) in order to determine the Fulcrum. Now, I don't have comprehensive PPs for these horses, so I determined that for the purpose of this exercise I would use a 2nd call time near the median. The Fulcrum pace is 1:11.00, with the Fulcrum horse being Going Wild.

The PPF Target is 37.8, not too shabby for a 9 furlong race. Here are the PPFs for the top 30 Derby Watch horses being tracked by DRF. I included Thor's Echo in the list too. He deserves his props having won the WinStar Derby on Saturday.


Horse PPF
Consolidator +8
Sun King +8
High Limit +6
Vicarage +2
Giacomo +1
High Fly +1
Closing Argument +1
Naughty New Yorker 0
Don't Get Mad 0
Thor's Echo 0
Going Wild 0
Bandini 0
Wilko -1
Galloping Grocer -2
Flower Alley -2
Greater Good -2
Pavo -3
Survivalist -3
Wild Desert -3
Rockport Harbor -3
Storm Surge -5
Noble Causeway -6
Afleet Alex -15
Sweet Catomine
Bellamy Road
Blues and Royals

Anybody who knows how may feel free to help me with my formatting.

[Buddha]

Horse PPF
Consolidator +8
Sun King +8
High Limit +6
Vicarage +2
Giacomo +1
High Fly +1
Closing Argument +1
Naughty New Yorker 0
Don't Get Mad 0
Thor's Echo 0
Going Wild 0
Bandini 0
Wilko -1
Galloping Grocer -2
Flower Alley -2
Greater Good -2
Pavo -3
Survivalist -3
Wild Desert -3
Rockport Harbor -3
Storm Surge -5
Noble Causeway -6
Afleet Alex -15
Sweet Catomine
Bellamy Road
Blues and Royals

[Bubbles]

I'd love to know how you got Vicarage ahead of High Fly. The latter absolutely KILLED the former in the Florida Derby.

[cj]

I'm guessing he's using the Louisiana Derby to measure Vicarage, not High Fly. Vicarage had no shot after the break / 1st turn in Florida, so maybe there is some merit to it. Not what I would go with, but I think that's why.

[JPinMaryland]

what is this a measure of exactly? are the positive numbers horses that expend more energy in the first part of the race?

[cj]

You would have to be familiar with Handicapping Magic, but PPF is a rating slanted towards the latter part of the race more so than the early part. It is not strictly a late pace rating though.

I would think for a dirt race we'd want to see the PBS ratings as well, but not being a user of the programs, just a reader of the book, I'm really not sure.

[kingfin66]

JP: PPF is a finishing measure like CJ explained. It really does help to be versed in Handicapping Magic methodology.

Bubbles: Vicarage's rating was from the La. Derby like CJ said. I opened the Form Cycle Window back to all of the Prep races.

CJ: Although I would also like to see the PBS ratings, they won't have too much meaning in this type of exercise because of the many track-to-track adjustments.

Buddah: Thank you very much for aligning my numbers. Someday, I will figure out how to code that.

**One note about Sun King. His PPF came from the Tampa Bay Derby. The second quarter time was fairly slow, but I don't know how Tam plays timewise. I will be very curious to see this one in a major prep against "real" TC nominees. So far Consolidator looks pretty good to me. Time will tell.

[BillW]

Buddah: Thank you very much for aligning my numbers. Someday, I will figure out how to code that.


Remove all blanks and use tabs only. The "code" delimiters should convert everything enclosed in a fixed width font as in the previous version of the site software (every character is the same width). In this version blanks are not rendered in that fixed format. Probably a bug.

Bill

[kgonzales]

is 37.35 or a +2 (using .2 sec as 1 length) using the alternative computation for PPF (last fraction of race less beaten lengths at finish).
1200m (6f)call= 1:12.7 and final time = 1:50.05
Based on your fulcrum of 1:11, the pace (6f) looks a little slow so that number may be inflated, but hard to say without pars for that track. For what it's worth, Roses in May clocked 6f in 1:10.94 and the next 3f in 38.11 in the World Cup. That may be like comparing apples and oranges though since he is a much "better" horse and ran much faster early. I know there are speed numbers/figs from Dubai floating around somewhere (Beyer, nick Mordin), but does anybody have any idea about pace figs?
Found the sectional timing at the Emirates Racing Association website: http://www.emiratesracing.com/eq/SectionalTiming.cfm?racefile_id=4460

Regarding PBS numbers, I use the BRIS numbers to make my PBS ratings, so theoretically the track to track adjustments are taken into account. Don't know if that's "true", but they work well enough when the situation calls for them (sprints and early shape races). In routes, I will use them if the race is devoid of pace and shapes up well for the early runners. It helps if this favors a longer priced horse, otherwise I just use the PPF. It is nice if the top PPF's are also competetive on PBS, but I don't require it.

My PBS and PPFs generally mimic the output of TMM. The differences arise in some of my calls about form cycle windows and slow or fast pace adjustments. I'd be happy to compare notes the week of the Derby after entries are drawn.

kg

[cj]

Found the sectional timing at the Emirates Racing Association website: http://www.emiratesracing.com/eq/SectionalTiming.cfm?racefile_id=4460

kg

Thanks, this will give me something to do on a Tuesday!