Fast Fred (ITS) & Handicapping Magic

[karlskorner]

A friend just bought Fast Fred from ITS and Handicapping Magic from Mike Pizzola.

I am not impressed by either. Anybody using these and what results are you getting.

Karl

[shane]

The techniques outlined in Handicapping Magic
will isolate the contenders as well as most s/w
and or books. Choosing between the contenders
will always be the difficult chore. Pizzolla outlines
his preferences and I tend to agree. It's all about
prices.

[andicap]

I read Handicapping Magic, but never sent away for the software. I don't think you can be too rigid to with Pizzolla's software.
In an email to me Eric Langjahr, Pizzolla's sidekick, said the accuracy of figures was secondary to how you use them (as long as they are close enough.)
Their big thing is to avoid overlays that are "false overlays." His analogy is if you buy a VCR for $20. Sounds like a great deal, right? Probably not.
Overlays are often too good to be true. The public is very smart, they argue and usually there is good reason why a horse is 15-1.
So how do you tell a real overlay from a false one?
The horse has to look bad to the public, but you have to see a reason to like it. For example, maybe the trainer is 0-30 so the public is avoiding it. But if the Pizzolla figures put the horse as a top 3 contender, you would consider it an overlay.
There's one thing Handicapping Magic advocates which is excellent: handicapping the public.
Look at each horse's Beyers, class and form and give it either a plus, neutral or minus. Do this very quickly. It should be instinctual. Pizzolla calls this "soft focus."
Looking at the entire field should give you a good feel as to how the public will bet.
If it looks like the public should like a horse (say at about 4-1) and the horse is 15-1, you probably have a false overlay.
Bottom line: Your not as smart as you think are. And the public should not be underrated.

andicap

[PaceAdvantage]

Great post andicap....a lot of truth to what you wrote.

[JimG]

Excellent post Andicap. I like the approach and believe it is not that far from the approach taken by Glenn, who was featured in Meadows' newsletter a couple of months ago.

Handicapping the public is certainly an art form in and of itself. What makes it tricky for me is factors such as class and weight, very popular 30 years ago are not so much anymore but still factored by a certain percentage of the public.

Knowing what percentage would make it easier but is nearly impossible. One of the easier examples for me is when a maiden special weight with some form drops into a maiden claimer and is 5-1 or higher. Horse is an automatic throw out for me and this has been successful.

Bottom line, if it (value) looks to good to be true, it probably is.

Jim

[Lefty]

Pizzolla wrote about most of this stuff when he was with
Sartin, i.e. pbs numbers, fulcrum etc.
I bght a set of Pizzolla tapes where the big thing was when is an overlay not an overlay and guess what? They included all of those too good to be true overlays that
their Master Handicapping software hit that they were hyping.
Question: When does a guru follow his own teachings?

[shane]

I guess it's different strokes for different folks.
I've read Handicapping Magic and also own the
Master Handicapper s/w. I was at a Master Key
seminar in 1995 so I have no need for the tapes.
If anyone knows of any untruths or mis-statements
made by Pizzolla or Langjahr please enlighten me.
I took them for what they were meant to be, tools.
In such a frustrating game I'm truly thankful they
are on my side.

[Lefty]

Yes, they are tools. Nothing more, nothing less.
All i'm pointing out the examples at that seminar and with the tapes I got are rife with Master Handicapper EX
of those "too good to be true" overlays. Make of it what you will. What I make of it is once again a seller attempts to have it both ways.

[Big Bill]

Shane,

You posted:

"The techniques outlined in Handicapping Magic
will isolate the contenders as well as most s/w
and or books."

I've been using his fulcrum pace concept to identify
contenders only with a slight variation. He uses a
horse's last race ONLY to search for the fulcrum pace
horse. I will use races within a horse's last three
outings (not going back past the 45 day layoff line) if
they are on the same surface, same distance (sprint
or route), and on a fast track, to find the fulcrum pace
horse.

My regular contender identification is based on a set
of form/conditions rules that I've established and ap-
plying the fulcrum pace concept, modified as I've de-
scribed above, will often knock out one or two more
horses.

Big Bill

[tanda]

Please see my thoughts which I posted as a separate thread not realizing that this thread was here. Any comments to my questions would be appreciated.

Thanks, tanda313@aol.com

[Tom]

Shane, were you at the Pizzolla seminar in Phialdelphia?
I went to that one and though it was really good. I never bought the software, but I liked the whole thought process he went over.
When we went to the track Sunday, Mike gave a lady $800 to make a bet for him on one race-to help her get over the fear of making a large bet.
Everyone was analyzing read outs from the MAster Hanciapper, and there I was, looking at Total Pace ratings and Synergism II readouts from my hand-held Sharp computer (hiding in a corner).
Tom

[shane]

Tom,

Yes, I was at the PHA seminar in '95. I didn't go to
the track but Pizzolla impressed me as someone
that was careful not to state somrthing he couldn't
prove, such as the 4 inch thick stack of IRS forms.
I've used their s\w for about 7 years. It was very good
when it first came out but the upgrade that allowed
times to be adjusted made all the difference to me. I read that many people can't win using it. I'm just fortunate I guess. By the way, my brother owns a few
other s\w programs. Remarkably similar contender
selection to TMH.

Shane

[Tom]

I went with a friend whoo owned the S/W. He is a manager of an OTB parlor so he had amble time to play.
He was doing qite well with it for a long time, but he switched to blackjack and never plays horses anymore.
He was really hitting lot of winners at Finger Lakes, but
most of them paid $5-6. He makes a lot more money at BJ than he ever made on horses, and gets "comped"
every time he goes to the casino. I got something every time I went to the track, but I don't think it was comped.
Tom

[NoDayJob]

IMO, you should require any person that you buy software from to show you at least the last 3 years of their federal and state tax returns before any money is exchanged. That way you will know whether the person can back up their claims. Unfortunately, most of them wouldn't sell a dime's worth of their products. If it is that good why would they want to sell it? O.K. call me a cynic! -NDJ

[Lefty]

Okay, NDJ, you're a cynic. Why do teachers exist in any
profession?

[tanda]

karlskorner,

i saw the infor on Fast Fred and it appeared (the were pitching it this way) to allow a lot of customization. It also claimed to use BRIS/TSN files (a plus over the daily or monthly fees for PPs needed for other programs.

Your post was negative, but if you could give me an overview, with the understanding that I want a data management tool not a "black box", it would be appreciated.

Thanks,

tanda

[andicap]

I asked him about his program -- i loved his output where you can see seperate races at a glance so can see form cycles and the likes.
you can go to www.kangagold.com to download the manual.

his AP calcs are different. he uses the internal time of the leader rather than the horse itself..so it's more of a pace of the race type of thing.

says track to track adjustments done via American Turf Monthly. Uses daily variants but wouldn't disclose how he computed them or where he got them. Adjustments in distance came from "national pars" (whatever those are) Doesn't use any par times at particular tracks. says he uses ATM pars instead (track equalization ratings they come out witih??) and says that accounts for differences in 1 and 2 turn routes.

I didn't download the manual -- might be more explanation there, but I lost interest when he mentioned ATM -- that pub has little credibility with me.

[karlskorner]

Tanda;

It has been 8 weeks since I posted that question. In that time my friend has reread Mike Pizzola's book at least 3 times and his use of the program has impoved to the point that he is hitting some races, I am quite certain as time goes on this will improve. The only problem he seems to be having is that he cannot find enough races that qualify.

Karl

[Lefty]

Tanda, Fast Fred, I thought this was an ITS data prgm only.
I wasn't aware it also used TSN files. Did you look at the
site and print out examples? I don't know about you but
those feet per second nos. make my head spin. I mean
how much diff is there between 56.01 and 56.03 anyhow? Never did get it very well.

[Lefty]

I clicked on the website and Fast Fred CAN now be used
with TSN .50 files. Tanda print out sample race and you
can make a decision from there.

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by Lefty
Tanda, Fast Fred, I thought this was an ITS data prgm only.
I wasn't aware it also used TSN files. Did you look at the
site and print out examples? I don't know about you but
those feet per second nos. make my head spin. I mean
how much diff is there between 56.01 and 56.03 anyhow? Never did get it very well.



Approx. 3" per furlong -NDJ

[Lefty]

Thanks, NDJ I remember the Doc(Sartin) saying about same thing; now that you mention it, but feet per second nos. still give me a headache.
Thank goodness there are better progs. out there(for me anyway) but others may actuaslly like feet per second nos., but, not me.

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by Lefty
Thanks, NDJ I remember the Doc(Sartin) saying about same thing; now that you mention it, but feet per second nos. still give me a headache.
Thank goodness there are better progs. out there(for me anyway) but others may actuaslly like feet per second nos., but, not me.





If you deal in lengths why not divide the FPS by 10? That will convert FPS to LPS and should be accurate enough. -NDJ

[Lefty]

NDJ, thanks again but I haven't really been interested in
velocity type prgms in a long time. Onward and upward.
Thanks again and i'm sure your advice will stand bettors
that are using these numbers in good stead.