Money Management

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

Though I'm a reincarnated harness addict,I notice not too many of you guys come to visit that forum.This question actually applies to everyone in general,though,and probably will get more responses over here.
What is your money management strategy?
I am not asking about actual $$,only the process you go through.
Do you wager a strict % of your bankroll.no matter how it fluctuates?
I read in a post here somebody stated they might bet on 7000 races in a year!I assume you only flat bet in that case,maybe adjusting your strategy at each day's end?
Do you even have one?
To the exotic players,how to you decide?
Selecting the proper play at the proper time is only part of the formula,and most on here are fairly open about the basics of how they arrive at that point.But unless you have a money plan that you adhere to,isn't it just a waste of time and effort?

[sjk]

I'm probably the one you are referring to that bet over 7000 races last year. I've bet about 1700 races so far this year but things will pick up during the warmer months when there are more tracks open.

I bet almost exclusively combinations of exactas. You ask if I have a betting strategy. My bets are scaled to be greater if the overlay percent is higher and greater when the probability of winning is higher as Kelly would suggest. I do not adjust daily or even monthly. Once in a great while I increase the bet sizes by a small amount.

What I do not find useful is the concept of bankroll. Suppose you open a betting account and some time down the road you have 10x or 100x that amount as a balance. I can't imagine most people would bet 10x or 100x their original amounts. Most of the pools would not accomodate it even if you were psychologically able to handle it.

In my case it has taken years to be comfortable with bet sizes that are just a small multiple of what I was betting 10 years ago. I guess I'm not really a gambler at heart; too conservative for my own good.

Of course I am just doing this for fun and if this was my profession I would have to take a more ruthless approach and deal with the stress of losing streaks while betting at a level where I was barely comfortable.

[how cliche]

Money management for me is quite simple really. I have a checkbook register dedicated soley to Thoroughbred racing. Every win is a deposit, every loss a withdrawal. I keep a running balance to inform myself of how far ahead or behind on the year I am at all times. As a win bettor it's simplest to use denominations of $20 so I come up with a full dollar amount and zero cents, as well as an easy to figure multiple of the $2 mutuel. I run the register for a calendar year and start a new one New Year's Day every year.

That being said, I grade my opinions against metals. Before I ever bet, I classify which level the opinion is. The stronger the opinion the larger the bet, with my typical bankroll for a day being $60, except for prime bet days.

Weak opinion much doubt/overlay=Bronze $20
Okay opinion some doubt/some dope=Silver $40
Strong opinion/lots of hope/some doubt/lots of dope=Gold $60
Prime opinion/proven beyond a resonable doubt he's a winner=Platinum $200 or $500 depending on whether I'm ahead or behind at that point in the year.

What this means is on a normal gambling day I'm betting between one to three horses in $20, $40 or $60 increments. I demand 4-1 or better and if he's hovering right there I stand poised by the machine to cancel if he drops below that. I'm wrong too much to waste money on horses shorter in odds. This insures I will survive losing days, but am likely to come out a winner in the longer run.

For example, earlier this year I was mired in a horrible slump. But because I was betting at most $60 a day I was only down $780. Think about that. 30 straight losing win bets. That all changed because my last two bets were Gold opinions. Both won and now I'm back in black by $1038. Mild profit or loss while waiting for a Platinum opinion.

Platinum opinions or prime bets occur one to three times a year. This is where I really get serious and make my money. One $500 win bet on an 18-1 runner will make $9,000 profit. The rest of the time I hover plus or minus a thousand or less.

That is how I do it. It's not for everyone, but it works for me.

[Dave Schwartz]

Cliche,

What a unique idea!

Personally, I grade my races for hit rate and profitability, A-B-C-D-F. I quickly saw that only the A's and B's are playable from an exacta standpoint (where my greatest profit is at almost +70%).

The win plays work in a similar fashion, A-F, with the grades being dependant upon the theoretical optimum bet. In other words, a high probability horse at a solid price would be an A, while a low probability contender at a price cannot be more than a B and is usually a C. My experience is that D's and F's are a waste of time.


Dave Schwartz

[sgv]

Dick mitchell I believe advocated a fractional kelly method. Can't remember the math exactly but you can find it in his book commonsense betting strategies. He also had an idea that he thought worked well for otb or early bird bettors whereby you would bet 2 or 3 % of whatever your bankroll was on each bet for the day. At the end of the day you would see where you stood and then do the same thing the next day.

[so.cal.fan]

I like the way you do things!

[kenwoodallpromos]

I bet $2 on "fun bets"; more but always consistent amounts on single horse bets; no serious exotics yet.

[Valuist]

I go by feel and am not locked into any rigid formulas. Some races I like more than others; action plays will get smaller amounts. Most of my wagers are in P3s and exactas. I'll make an occasional win bet as well as playing tris, doubles and P4s but P3s and exactas make up the majority of my wagering dollars.

[kingfin66]

Question: When you say "Weak opinion much doubt/overlay=Bronze $20", how weak an opinion are you talking about? Would this be a horse that you have at 3/1 but the public is betting up to 15/1 but for reasons you understand? I'm just trying to get a feel for why you bet a horse when you don't feel strongly about it.

Also, would you consider your base betting unit to be $60 and then bet in 1/3, 2/3 and full units?

I've considered doing what you do as far as rating bets. My win bets are always the same unit and I like to think that they are all gold, but sometimes they are @%&@)%&.

[how cliche]

Question: When you say "Weak opinion much doubt/overlay=Bronze $20", how weak an opinion are you talking about? Would this be a horse that you have at 3/1 but the public is betting up to 15/1 but for reasons you understand? I'm just trying to get a feel for why you bet a horse when you don't feel strongly about it.

Also, would you consider your base betting unit to be $60 and then bet in 1/3, 2/3 and full units?

I've considered doing what you do as far as rating bets. My win bets are always the same unit and I like to think that they are all gold, but sometimes they are @%&@)%&.

Good questions, kingfin66.

A bronze opinion is usually based on me handicapping a field of runners rather than letting a runner jump out at me to the point where I disregard all his foes. In addition to this, my knowledge of his connections are not layered beyond what is published. In fact they're quite surface, which leaves me in the position of a hack guesser who's right every now and then but can be wrong for long periods of time. When I handicap a field, I'm most concerned with finding the fittest horse in the race, rather than the fastest. Sometimes the fittest can beat the fastest when the fastest are not in shape. By searching for the fittest horse, I can find what I think of as overlays, due to the general public's search for the fastest. The problem is I misinterpret the past performances all the time when I'm reading them literally like this. I know these are problems in my approach so I bet lightly.

I have gotten hot before and hit 1 of 3 Bronze opinions for a prolonged period. Oak Tree was like that for me. However, I never strayed from the $20 stance. I don't push my luck just because I've been making interpretations of literal form better than I normally do. A guess is still a guess. Doubt is still doubt. However, when I'm on a roll like that I do attempt to find more days to play.

I've also gotten cold with Bronze opinions as was the case from Jan. 8 through March 26 of this year. I lost all $20 win bets and all $40 bets too in that time, but was never out of my comfort zone due to the low risk of the small wagers, and the subsequent gradual loss, most of which can be made up for in just one win.

Yes my base betting unit is $60 and I'm looking at it as 1/3, 2/3, full. That is what I'm comfortable with bringing to the races. I should note however, some days I bet less than $60 because I'm unable to find even three Bronze opinions.

The last two days at the track I found Gold opinions. March 27 Stanley Park won the San Luis Rey G2(16.60). April 2 Master Heat won a $50,000 claimer(44.00). Both horses were the full plays on strong, fairly well researched opinions. The way I manage my money prevented me from playing any other horses those days.

[timtam]

Cliche

Are you betting one track or are you betting the $60 at a couple different tracks?

[how cliche]

Cliche

Are you betting one track or are you betting the $60 at a couple different tracks?

timtam

$60 is for a day, period. I bet almost exclusively on California tracks, because I live here and I know more about the circuit. I do however, stray outside the golden state occasionally. Right now my plays are divided between BM & SA with more plays going to SA. Hard to find value in the 6 horse fields BM's offering up these days.

[kingfin66]

Thanks. That's interesting stuff. Feel free to share those Gold and Platinum. Yeah right. It sounds like you have a very good approach.

Value Betting
Record Keeping
Knowing your track in light of the handicapping factors you use
Insisting on price
Discipline

Definitely the stuff that winners are made of.

[how cliche]

Thanks. That's interesting stuff. Feel free to share those Gold and Platinum. Yeah right. It sounds like you have a very good approach.

Value Betting
Record Keeping
Knowing your track in light of the handicapping factors you use
Insisting on price
Discipline

Definitely the stuff that winners are made of.

Well thank you kingfin. Very nice of you to say that. I'm feeling a lot better now than I was 2 weeks ago.

About sharing Gold or Platinums on the forum...I did put a what I initially thought was a Platinum opinion in a post earlier, but disguised it. I didn't give away all the dope I had on the horse or his trainer and owner. I didn't even give the horse's name, but I'll tell you now it was the $44 winner Master Heat, weeks before last Saturday. It was in the "Overlays vs Spot Plays" thread...

"Other days there's a runner who looks primed to run big and I know the price is going to be huge so I take a shot, even if he looks overmatched on paper. For example, if Barry Abrams horse draws in from the AE's for Wednesday's 7th at SA I'm playing. I like how the horse was a close up 4th sprinting when he came back from a 7 month layoff. Next race he just ran around the track in a 1 1/2 mile marathon on Saturday. Rider never let loose on him. My thinking is he's received tactical speed from the sprint and stamina from the 12f run and he should be dead fit for a mile try just 4 days after his last. He's by Unusual Heat who's progeny do their best running at a mile or 1 1/16 on the turf, as he's already proven he can do up north. And if I recollect he's graduated from national n1x conditions but is somehow still eligible for cal-bred n1x conditions. Is this possible? I like the horse in this race."

Bear in mind this was all without pp's when I posted this. I'm really locked in with this runner. I know when he's going well and when he's not. I've only played him twice & he won 'em both. I know things about him most players don't. The very quick entry at the right distance, coupled with a good comebacker from a layoff before the 12f try told me he was doing great. If he drew in I EXPECTED him to win and was prepared after much personal coaxing to place several hundred dollars down to win. He didn't. So from there I predicted incorrectly for Abrams to do his typical slow and sparse training in the morning. I thought because Abrams would usually go soft on him, much of the lustre would come off his shine. Instead he trained aggressive on him & worked 10 days later and every 7 days after that, with a blazing(for an Abrams)1:00&4 final drill. There was some guessing involved, when there would've been none had he drawn in on the wheelback, but I still liked him a lot. I was confidently HOPING he would win. Big difference between hoping and expecting. I bet him good, but couldn't justify going all in like I was prepared to for the original entry. In retrospect...y'know. Still, this horse has been good to me.

[kingfin66]

Hey, I'm just calling it like I see it. I like the way you combine methodology with your handicapping acumen. The only thing I would change is your $60/day period rule. I have heard of people who stop when they win a certain amount, but not those who only bet a certain amount win or lose. I can definitely see where you don't want to get into huge losses during a losing streak, but why limit your winning when things are cooking? It sounds as though you have the discipline to make only good bets when opportunities present themselves. You are also a Win bettor. If you by chance found 3 Gold plays in 1 day - not a huge likelihood in Calif. - why limit yourself? Just food for thought.

I really enjoy your posts and hope to see more. Maybe some more on the 'capping end of things. You definitely sound locked into to NoCal and SoCal scene. I really only like Hollywood and Del Mar. In fact, I get to go to Del Mar in August. Can't wait....

Take care.

[Fwocco@BTW]

I use a monthly bankroll , and if its blown i have to wait till next month to play. This year i'm still on january's bankroll. If ii somehow lose all my winnings back ..i will move right into the current months bankroll. As far as money management i sorta mirror what cliche strategy. I classify races as "open" , "group" , or "prime" . Open =1 unit play Group=2 unit play Prime=3-4 unit play.

However if the odds on a Prime bet dip below 4-1 usually falls to 2 unit play.. if under 2-1 falls to 1 unit play or none at all. Basically i try and bet , or invest the largest amounts of my bankroll on plays that have highest return value... with absolute confidence of the return.

so far this year i have made only two prime bet plays ..one 3unit returned $700 on a 21-1 horse... would have returned higher but missed all exotics cuz place horse was 32-1 head scratcher. the other prime play was 4unit play on a 6-1 returned $2800. They are rare , and basically those two plays account for my winnings this year. The point to my strategy is even if i would have lost those two plays i would still be ahead $325. :cool:

[midnight]

I believe it was either Andy Beyer or Steve Davidowitz who once said that most profesionals can trace their entire year's profits to a dozen races. While I haven't found this true in my case, I can say that probably two-thirds of what I make in a year can be traced to no more than 20 races or wagering pools (example: a trifecta, a pick three, etc.). The rest mainly pay the bills. The problem is that I don't know which 20 are going to be the ones that make the majority of profits until after they've come in.

[how cliche]

The only thing I would change is your $60/day period rule. I have heard of people who stop when they win a certain amount, but not those who only bet a certain amount win or lose. I can definitely see where you don't want to get into huge losses during a losing streak, but why limit your winning when things are cooking? It sounds as though you have the discipline to make only good bets when opportunities present themselves. You are also a Win bettor. If you by chance found 3 Gold plays in 1 day - not a huge likelihood in Calif. - why limit yourself? Just food for thought.

I really enjoy your posts and hope to see more. Maybe some more on the 'capping end of things. You definitely sound locked into to NoCal and SoCal scene. I really only like Hollywood and Del Mar. In fact, I get to go to Del Mar in August. Can't wait....

Take care.

Three Gold opinions in one day has never happened. I had two in one day once. The problem was they were both entered in the same race. I didn't know what to do. The runners were 7-1 and 14-1 respectively. Both I thought were dead fit and following known paths to victory.

I didn't know what to do. I thought about betting $60 to win on both, but didn't like the idea of playing against myself. Then it dawned on me to put in a $30 exata box. Of course they ran 1-3 with the 14-1 winning.