New Member Intro

[michiken]

Hello PA,

I am a long time lurker from Michigan. I grew up watching the races with my Dad at the Detroit Race Course. Currently I am a BRIS user who employs their pace and speed figs. I am an amateur handicapper who would love someday to go pro.

I am looking forward to adding my 2 cents when I Ken....... LOL

Long Odds to all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[kingfin66]

Hello PA,

I am a long time lurker from Michigan. I grew up watching the races with my Dad at the Detroit Race Course. Currently I am a BRIS user who employs their pace and speed figs. I am an amateur handicapper who would love someday to go pro.

I am looking forward to adding my 2 cents when I Ken....... LOL

Long Odds to all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Welcome. Didn't you want to make your 1st post on the software section? :lol: Most of us are amateurs here, but most of us want to keep it that way (I think). Add your 2 cents whenever you please. If you add your 2 cents on the Off Topic section, be sure to duck quickly.

[michiken]

Actually I am a first time poster to this forum. I hope that my 2 cents I add is informative though!

[timtam]

Welcome to the Board

You stated you may one day wish to be a pro handicapper so good luck with that. What is your style of play? w/p exotics 1-3 tracks or all over the board? Anyone wishing to turn pro intrigues me cause I'd love to do it but know it will never happen. any thoughts to the board getting to know you better and once again GOOD LUCK!!!!

[kenwoodallpromos]

I'm the resident track speed nut and show bettor here but I make all kinds of bets but not often enough to live on it as I am a very conservative bettor, as to number of bets.

[CryingForTheHorses]

Hello PA,

I am a long time lurker from Michigan. I grew up watching the races with my Dad at the Detroit Race Course. Currently I am a BRIS user who employs their pace and speed figs. I am an amateur handicapper who would love someday to go pro.

I am looking forward to adding my 2 cents when I Ken....... LOL

Long Odds to all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Welcome,I have a ton of memories from DRC. I used to free-lance gallop there and used to ride a nice filly there named Gats Girl,Do you remember her?,Rode a lot of horses for a trainer named John Drumwright.Hope you have lots of informative fun here.

[PaceAdvantage]

Welcome michiken!


Have fun!

[michiken]

Thanks for the Welcome Messages. Here is a little more background on me:

For the last 22 years I have worked as a project engineer and consultant to the auto companies. I am fairly well versed in computers and some programming. My career was very demanding as I traveled and often worked 6-7 days per week. My dream was always to have enough time to devote to handicapping. In the middle of last year, my company decided to close leaving all of us engineers high and dry with no comp package whatsoever. I found myself unemployed for the 1st time in my life. It lasted almost 7 months.

During that unemployment period, I found myself becoming bored and started playing way too many tracks and races. I guess that going from a workaholic schedule to one with no limits was too drastic of a lifestyle change? Needless to say, I found that I lacked the the qualities that I see from the handicappers that post here. One of the reasons that I joined this board is to learn how to emulate the 'successful ones'. Now that I have moved into another job where I do not have to travel and the hours of work are more consistent, I am examining my handicapping strengths and weaknesses and refining my handicapping philosophy:

If there is one thing that I have learned over the years of handicapping, it is that you should have a flexible style. My evaluation of the races is sort of along the lines of Sartin and Ainslee's 'Pace Makes the Race' but with more out of the box thinking.

I use an old MS-DOS based program called Paradox to import bris pace figures and calculate ratings and internal fractions. Depending on the track and quality of horses, I have different reports that will sort based on average pace, turn time, final fraction, 1st call, 2nd call, Speed Figure etc. I like to have all of the calls of the race so I can visualize how it is going to be run. My experience with pace figures is that it allows me to see trends or indicators of good and bad pacelines without primarily relying on just a speed figure alone.

My main focus is on finding horses that can attack the pace and predict which front runners will quit. I also like to review the mix of the running styles of the horses in the race i.e. early, presser, sustained. A lot of the nite time tracks that I like are loaded with cheap speed and the public overbets them regularly in my opinion. I try to identify the horse that won't get involved with the speed duel and will have enough in the tank to stalk the pace and make a winning move.

My secondary focus is evaluating the horses pace and speed figures as they apply to today's race distance. For example, one of my favorite angle plays is at Mountaineer:

In most route races, you can almost throw out all horses stretching out from sprints regardless of their speed fig. My observation has been that sprinters seem to be more in for a tightener and that these races are won by true routers with more stamina. This relationship seems to hold true except for those cheap maiden claimers.

Lastly, I sort the last 2 races individually to see how my rankings compare to the odds - a mental odds line if you will. Sometimes this points out a true overlay.

In response to timtam:

Perhaps you are right, we are all just amateur handicappers. I guess I will have to redefine myself. I want to learn to be successful like the pro's. I want to attain qualities like the pro's but without having to rely on racing for income (too stressful?) I want to learn how to pick my spots and crush them. And I want to profit consistently!

In response to McShell:

I grew up a block away from the old DRC. My aunt used to take us during the summer to watch the workouts. I spent many nights there with my dad in the grandstand even though I was barely old enough to get in. I rode my bike to the nearby 7-11 to get the DRF.

Although I do not directly remember Gat's Girl, I am pretty sure that I saw her there once or twice. I do remember horses like Sahar, Beau Genius, Optimum Mode and others though. I remember when Euclides Vergara and James Jackson were always at the top of the charts. I remember when they let Lester Knight win the very last race before closing.

Sigh, There were lots of good memories there until they tore it down Now I am stuck with Northville ;-(

[Light]

Michiken said

In most route races, you can almost throw out all horses stretching out from sprints regardless of their speed fig.

Super serious mistake.

[michiken]

Michiken said

In most route races, you can almost throw out all horses stretching out from sprints regardless of their speed fig.

Super serious mistake.

Before I get mis quoted here. This angle applies to Mountaineer Racetrack Routes only. I did not mean to imply that you can throw out all sprinters moving to routes at all tracks.

[chickenhead]

hey chiken, you tryin to horn in on my action?
:lol:

welcome to the board!
ch

[Suff]

Michiken said

In most route races, you can almost throw out all horses stretching out from sprints regardless of their speed fig.

Super serious mistake.

absolutely. I love the angle...but not on a horse that has 45 starts, one very three or four weeks and goes all sorts of distances at varied times.

But on a horse with less than 20 starts, that still might not have run to his/her pedigree its a nice play. Particularly if it comes off a benching.

Like 60 days on the bench, Comes out 6Fur and does squat, comes again 6 furlong and either slightly improves or even does nothing more.. But now stretchs out, 3rd off the layoff, with a 9 panel pedigree, a nice suite of works, and a trainer angle I can live with. Decent play.

Its particularly attractive if one of those two sprints has an excuse.. Like a MUDDY track, or a bad break, or caught two monsters...

[Light]

Michicken said:

Before I get mis quoted here. This angle applies to Mountaineer Racetrack Routes only. I did not mean to imply that you can throw out all sprinters moving to routes at all tracks.

Why would Mountaineer be an exception?

[Suff]

welcome to the Pace board. Enjoy.

[michiken]

Considering that the horses at the Mountain are not of the highest class, their races tend to have a lot of need the lead or cheap speed horses in them. Sprinters going long having earned a high speed figure often times used all of their energy to get that figure.

If you look at the internal fractions of these types, you will see that they spend most of their ability getting to the 4f call in their previous. For example, this type of horse may have pace and speed figs of 98(2f) 103 (4f) and 82 (6f).

While he accelerated (103-98) = +5 on the turn, his final fraction fraction (82-103) = -21 points tells me that this horse will not do well going long.

It is just my personal observation from watching Mountaineer for last few years as I have watched these types go down in flames.

[Light]

I agree that cheap sprinters in poor form cant route,but thats true anywhere. I know Mountaineer has alot of those to verify your observation. I generally play higher class tracks and find stretchers one of the best paying angles in racing.Of course who qualifies as a sprinter to beat routers is another subject but I think Suff made some good points.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I love to bet against favorites who fade also!

[Lasix1]

Before I get mis quoted here. .
Welcome aboard Michiken. You'll never get misquoted here, but you will get selectively quoted, quoted out of context, and have one misguided word out of 10,000 brilliant ones seized on and trashed . But it's all for a good cause and there are many superb handicappers here with a lot of good ideas. Most of them can actually articulate their ideas too!

[highnote]

I am an amateur handicapper who would love someday to go pro.

Whenever someone asks, I always recommend Nick Mordin's book "Betting For A Living". You can find it at amazon.co.uk.

It was written before the days of simulcasting, but still has valuable insights.

Welcome to the board.

John

[Tom]

.
If you look at the internal fractions of these types, you will see that they spend most of their ability getting to the 4f call in their previous. For example, this type of horse may have pace and speed figs of 98(2f) 103 (4f) and 82 (6f).

While he accelerated (103-98) = +5 on the turn, his final fraction fraction (82-103) = -21 points tells me that this horse will not do well going long.


The 82 for 6 furlongs - is that the BRIS speed figure?

[hurrikane]

That is interesting.

I have a particular situation at MNR with sprinters going to routes with a 25% win rate and a 1.22 ROI. That's been steady over the last 3 yrs.

Welcome to the board.

[michiken]

The 82 for 6 furlongs - is that the BRIS speed figure?

The 82 can be one of two things when using bris figs:

a. Speed fig is when the horses paceline was from a sprint.

b. Or It can be the 6f pace fig extracted from a route race (cutback to sprint).

[Tom]

Thanks, Michiken. And wlecome to the board.
You brought some interesting ideas wtih you, fer shore!

BW, do you know anyplace in the I94E - I75N area that sells DRF or SIm Weekly? I used to stop in the Liitle Professor in Dearborn, but they closed in December. Always like to grab good reading when I am in town.

[michiken]

Tom it has been ages since I have bought a copy of the DRF!

The last place that I can remember that carried them is a 'no name' party store/book shop that is directly across the street from this Pizza Hut. It is due east of the Little Professor on Michigan that you used to go to. It is near I-94 and where Oakman and Michigan Avenue Intersect.

The store is in older downtown Dearborn about 3 city blocks east of the City Hall.

Here is a link to a google map (http://www.google.com/local?q=pizza+hut&hl=en&lr=&sa=X&near=Dearborn,+MI&radius=0&latlng=42322222,-83176389,17515927907779593221).


Otherwise, I just read 'used' copies of the DRF at Northville Downs LOL.





Thanks, Michiken. And wlecome to the board.
You brought some interesting ideas wtih you, fer shore!

BW, do you know anyplace in the I94E - I75N area that sells DRF or SIm Weekly? I used to stop in the Liitle Professor in Dearborn, but they closed in December. Always like to grab good reading when I am in town.

[Tom]

Thanks, I know the place.