What's going on!!!!

[John]

I have a question for you Guys. why does it seem, of late, that most of the tracks seem to favor speed? Today, for example, at both suf, PHL,[ AQU - Sunday ] almost all the winners went directly to the front and continued to the wire; stalkers and closers never even got a call except, perhaps, to finish for 3rd, passing tired horses. Everything is bet down to nothing . If horse is a front runner; even dueling they continue on, 1-2. Are the tracks doing something differently to the surface, or are the horses being trained to run early and hang on, going as far as they can?

[GR1@HTR]

I don't know rocajack but someone told me this game was fun...This game sucks...I'm going back to Super Nintendo for entertainment...<g>

[tanda]

GR1,

It can be fun. Go to Ray Gordon's site. He will sell you a method that generates a very high R.O.I.

[John]

TANDA.

I appreciate you uesing the word "SELL"

[Rick]

What, no post from RG on this thread? You guys must feel left out. Maybe PA could create a forum especially for him. Then it would be easier to follow his ranting.

[Dick Schmidt]

"almost all the winners went directly to the front and continued to the wire; stalkers and closers never even got a call except, perhaps, to finish for 3rd, passing tired horses."


I've been hearing (and seeing) the same thing since I first got into racing 20 years ago. Has anyone ever seen a track that frontrunners didn't dominate? Why do you think pace handicapping works so well? The prices are lower as more people catch on, but nothing else has changed.

Back in 1985 Jim Bradshaw told me: "Only two kinds of races. One horse goes out and the rest try to catch it. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't."

Dick

[Rick]

Dick,

I always found it interesting that a lot of horses that win and are described by people after the race as "closers" are really coming from no more than about 3 lengths off the pace. Stalkers probably would be a better term. There seems to be more value in these types than in those who have a string of 1's at the first call in their past performances.

[Jeff P]

I'm a confirmed believer that evaluating a track to play on is every bit as important as evaluating contenders. That said, I have put my own thoughts on the subject up on a page on my own site for the world to see. For anyone interested, here's a link:


http://www.gifts-shopping-n-more.com/pace_bias.htm

[Rick]

Jeff,

Which track would you say most consistently favors early speed? Turf Paradise used to be the best in my opinion, but I haven't played it much lately.

[Jeff P]

Which track would you say most consistently favors early speed? Turf Paradise used to be the best in my opinion, but I haven't played it much lately.


Rick-

I think the major Florida tracks (Gulfstream, Calder) have consistently favored early speed over the past year more than any place else in North America. I also like Turfway Park, Keeneland, and Oaklawn (although those meets are now concluded.) Last Sunday, probably because of the rain, Aqueduct was very speed favoring. Oddly enough, I feel that Aqueduct's Turf Course has always been speed favoring.

Concerning Turf Paradise, this year, in the months of January, February, and most of March, the dirt surface had a strong speed bias. It was so speed favoring that many horsemen openly complained to track management that their horses had no chance at all. One Wednesday morning in mid March, I watched them dig up the main track. They used a grader to scrape away all of the dirt from the main track, down to the track's hard clay base, with the exception of the dirt in a 10 to 15 foot wide path along the rail. That they left alone. Then they used a dumptruck to drop piles of fresh dirt all over the track. They followed this by spreading out the piles of new dirt using rakes being pulled behind tractors over top of the bare ground as well as the two feet of dirt they had previously left untouched all around the rail. What they accomplished was to create a situation where the dirt along the rail was much deeper than the dirt on the outside. They had effectively removed the speed bias from the track and had done so intentionally. Horses on the lead, especially cheap horses like we have at Turf Paradise, almost always drift to the rail in the stretch. Ever since then, there have been very few days at Turf Paradise where speed has done well.

[Rick]

Jeff,

Sorry to hear that about Turf Paradise. Calder several years ago seemed to me to not favor early speed at all. I'm more likely these days to play an "average" track because it seems that management always tries to eliminate a bias when one develops. You've got to be quick on the draw to benefit in most places these days.

[Tom]

AQU turf was speed favoring last year, but speed is crapping out this season. Finger Lakes used always be speed favoring. Clsoers were horse that came from second place! Belmont turf generally favors closers, but some days it totally reverses. If you pay attention to the variations from norm, you can either capitalize right away if you realize it in time, or at least wait for play backs with a bad last line due to a fluke day.
HTR studies ahve shown the single best predictor of longshots is the best first fraction and someof the guys there have db angles that find these plays for them every day.

[Jeff P]

Rick-

I guess that all tracks go through changes. Perhaps this is due to changes in grounds crew personnel, maintenance practices, etc.

A couple of weeks back, the large lit up sign at Turf Paradise's main entrance on 19th AVE had the following advertisement on it: "Now Hiring Tractor Drivers." I jokingly told some of my friends that I was considering applying for the job. That way I could see to it that there would always be a speed bias no matter what.

[andicap]

Originally posted by Jeff P
I'm a confirmed believer that evaluating a track to play on is every bit as important as evaluating contenders. That said, I have put my own thoughts on the subject up on a page on my own site for the world to see. For anyone interested, here's a link:


http://www.gifts-shopping-n-more.com/pace_bias.htm

Read your tract with interest. One question: There are days when speed wins the first three races in a row and then -- bang, zoom, Alice -- stalkers and closers win two or three. Dont you think Jeff that age, types of races and whether the speed horse SHOULD win the race are important as well. For example, 2 and 3 yr old horses don't close as well as older horses so speed horses win more races for those age groups as well as in Maiden races.
And if the first three speed horses are 2-1 or less could it be the best horse won? Now is two speed horses win at 10-1 and 5-1 and a chalky stalker can't pass in the stretch that will tell me something.

[Jeff P]

Andy-

You're absolutely right. There are many days when I might get tricked into thinking that what I am looking at is a speed bias. Sometimes, the best horse wins the race no matter what.

The printed sheet that I prepare before going off to the track has numbers on it representing early pace, late pace, and final time. I have found that when trying to make a judgement call as to whether or not a track is playing to speed that it pays to pay attention to all three sets of numbers.

When a horse with strong late pace and/or final time ability in relation to the rest of the field wins by running on or near the lead, that's when I am most likely to get tricked into thinking that what I am looking at is a speed biased track. That horse may have simply been the best horse and probably could have won from off the pace if the rider had chosen to go that way.

What really defines a speed biased track for me is when horses that have strong early pace and weak late pace and/or final time numbers start wining races by running on or near the lead. Why? Because these horses, when they exert themselves early, often tire noticeably on normal tracks and frequently stop badly to the point of being eased on speed tiring tracks.

My entire mindset in playing horses has always been to try and cash a sizeable win bet on a horse that is an overlay. I feel that my best chance to do this often lies in identifying a speed favoring track where a quick horse at a price can get in front of the more obvious horse and stay there until they hit the wire.

[Rick]

Jeff,

I'd take that job myself but I'm not much into the work thing any more.

I'd guess that an early speed bias exists when good early speed horses that are also lower class are winning. Early speed and higher class is the usual situation and doesn't mean much.

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

Jeff P : My entire mindset in playing horses has always been to try and cash a sizeable win bet on a horse that is an overlay. I feel that my best chance to do this often lies in identifying a speed favoring track where a quick horse at a price can get in front of the more obvious horse and stay there until they hit the wire.

Jeff, that's certainly one approach that I wouldn't discount, but it's been my experience, in both an observational and financial sense , that if you can find a track that's just killing front runners, you'll be looking at double digit mutuels one after the other. Seems that the public has a much easier time looking at all the "1's" in the pace lines, and a much more difficult time finding the horses with the best late pace characteristics.

I've never been one to buy strongly into short term biases, prefering to monitor more general trends, but once in awhile, one comes up and hits you over the head with a hammer. Too often though, we're late playing into them, and then late backing off.

Paul

[Jaguar]

Rocajack, having been at this game a long time, from before the legal use of drugs, I have noticed that the introduction of Lasix and Bute(not to mention the use of undetectable and expensive illegal formulations in the higher purse races) has dramatically changed horse racing.

The Pennsylvania College of Veterinary Medicine, which conducted the most comprehensive study of Lasix and it's impact on race horse performance, which was published about 5 years ago, stated that the average improvement in a horse's numbers was 10%.

The study says that while some horse's are not affected by Lasix,
most are stimulated to enhanced levels of performance, and some horses respond with a greater than 10% improvement.

Freer breathing, central nervous system stimulation, and the narcotic effect of greater endorphin output, has resulted in a situation in which slightly unsound horses show improved performance and truly fit horses run like a scalded cat.

Personally, I wish we would do as Canada and England do, race on hay, oats and water.

I believe the State Racing Commissioners, the race track owners,
and the leading horsemen, have let us down in this matter.

I have read both sides of the drug argument, and I really think we should try to keep this great game as clean as we can.

If a horse can't race as frequently without drugs, so be it. If some horsemen have to get out of the game because their stock can't race without drugs, so be it.

In closing, I would just add that look at the mess we are in, having opened this Pandora's box. We have a situation in New York, for example, where the wealthier owners and trainers are using Amylcar- which is expensive, and which is metabolized as a sugar, and which does not show up in spectragraphic analysis of the horse's urine after the race.

Furthermore, there are temptations regarding undue influence concerning the testing personnel themselves. Where does it stop?

You may know of the recent case of the successful New York trainer who was denied barn space by Aqueduct, racing his string at a lesser track that year, because the NYRA had suspicions about his unusual facility in suddenly improving his horse's performance, but couldn't prove anything.

To paraphrase the late, great Oliver Hardy, "What a fine mess we're in".

The tough thing is that it's bettors like me who bear the financial burden of all the cheating and when the bettors suffer, it's just a matter of time until the whole game suffers.

The casinos have bankrupted enough racetracks, we don't need racing to gradually destroy itself from within.

Putting slot machines in the race tracks may temporarily stop the hemmorrhaging, but what happens when the track management wants to turn the racing surface into a parking lot for slot patrons?

I'm afraid horse racing fans like me are on a slippery slope.

All the best

Jaguar

[ranchwest]

Several years back, there was a case in Louisiana where some trainers, facing suspension, requested a second analysis of their horses' samples. The second look turned up caffeine and nicotine. Had the horses been smoking and drinking coffee? No, the samples were human urine.