Pars

[anotherdave]

I know there are at least a couple of par time publications out there (Cynthia and Horsestreet). I have the Cynthia pars from a few years back and have been using them, but things change. Does anyone know if there are any sites out there that give a simple but reasonably accurate track to track adjustments at different distances, even just final time(free or inexpensive). I've seen the ATM one, but it seems quite inaccurate. I know the results I get might not be as accurate as I'd like, but I'm just checking out a little adjustment on a method I'm working on and wanted to see if I could get ballpark adjustments without spending $130 yet. (that's $210 Canadian to a teacher like me)

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[Whirlaway]

Subscribe to Simulcast Weekly and make you own, would be my advice. I found when I bought Gordon Pine's pars from Cynthia a few years ago that his pars for SoCal were substantially different from mine, which I'd rather carefully put together from a large set of results charts. I trusted mine, of course, since at least I knew how they'd been compiled.

Dave Schwartz has a big enough database that I'm sure his pars can be trusted, but the problem with using someone else's pars is that you never know which times are based on solid samples and which are based on small samples or interpolated.

--john nichols
http://sportofkings.blogspot.com

[GR1@HTR]

How accurate are the Bris/TSN Pars? If they are accurate, you can't go wrong w/ a .50 cent to $1.50 file.

[anotherdave]

I do my own pars for the two or three tracks I concentrate on. I don't have time to do it for 20 tracks. What I am interested in is when I get a shipper from another circuit. Ballpark track to track adjustments, not daily pars.

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[Tom]

Here is a suggestion that I use...
Horse A runs at the home track, 6 furlongs in 111 flat and earns
a AlGore speed figure of 87 (Names changed for legal considerations ~G~). Horse B runs at a different track and earns an 87 for running in 112 flat. Since the two races earned final Gore numbers of 87, they are considered to be equal, so you adjust the shipper by taking 5 fifths off from his final time. Now if you want to adjust the pace time, adjust that faster as well, by 2-3 fifths, or tenths, depending on how you prefer to adjust pace times. I worte a simple program for my Sharp handheld the adjusted times based on the Gore Numbers.

The only problem is that sometimes the Gore numbers don't add up ~GGG~

[andicap]

Tom,
I'll ignore the snide political remark and ask a racing question: Do you need to factor the track variant into your equation?

[Lindsay]

By using the Beyers, he's accounting for the track variant. The problem with his method, and it's a huge problem, is that the relationship between fractions and final times varies from track to track. Beyer's variants do not take this into account.

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
Tom,
I'll ignore the snide political remark and ask a racing question: Do you need to factor the track variant into your equation?

Sorry, andicap, I just couldn't resist ~G~
Answer is yeas and no. The assumption is that if two adjusted figs are equal, the final times are equal, so I use whatever the adjustment to bring the the shipper in line as the race variant.
As Lindsey says, all fractions are not created equal, but as a method to bring shippers into line, it works in practice. It could be better with a lot more work, but incrementally, ther is not a direct relationship between hard work and ROI. I used to put a lot more effort into fractions than I do now, but the term "Good enough numbers" (thank you Dick Schmidt) have changed my outlook on this.

[anotherdave]

From the responses so far, I guess I didn't phrase my question correctly (or I am not understanding the reponses?) I am not talking about track variants or adjustments to speed ratings. Just simple track to track adjustments for final time like the ATM one (e.g. SA is 4/5 faster than GG at 6f (I'm making that up!), etc), but a little more up to date. I guess there isn't anything else like that around. Thanks anyways.

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[Dave Schwartz]

ADave,

The HorseStreet Pars contain a booklet that is exactly that (except in hundredths). It is also available electronically for import into spreadsheets or software.

Dave

PS: This minor commercial message brought to you buy... well, you guys can figure that out. <G>