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View Full Version : Let's try it a little HIGHER!!!


Storm Cadet
03-31-2005, 05:12 PM
Here's the field boys!

8th Race - AQUEDUCT - SATURDAY, APRIL 2, 2005


Approx. Post 4:21PM
Race Type: STAKES Purse $200,000 (Includes $50,000 from the BCF)(Up to $28,500 NYSBFOA)
Distance: One Mile And One Furlong
Conditions: A HANDICAP FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
Race Name: The 93th Running of THE EXCELSIOR BREEDERS' CUP (Grade III) $200,000 (Up to $28,500 NYSBFOA)

PP Horse Name (L) Age Sex Wt Jockey Owner Trainer
1 Cuba (BC) (L) 4 C 113 Bridgmohan, S Allard, C Bush, T
2 Diligent Gambler (BC) (L) 4 C 112 Samyn, J Castle Village Farm Gyarmati, L
3 Offlee Wild (BC) (L) 5 H 121 Bejarano, R AZ Azalea Stables LLC Dutrow, Jr., R
4 Country Be Gold (BC) (L) 8 H 115 Espinoza, J Ribeiro, R Kappes, S
5 Rogue Agent (BC) (L) 6 G 113 Gryder, A One Fein Stable Brice, M
6 Coast Line (BC) (L) 4 G 117 Migliore, R Overbrook Farm Pletcher, T
7 Presidentialaffair (BC) (L) 6 G 117 Elliott, S Papandrea, V Ciresa,

cj
03-31-2005, 05:22 PM
Here are my numbers for the race, most recent to the left:


Race # 8

CUBA 95 95 81 88 87 89 99 82 96 96
DILIGENT GAMBLER 92 87 82 93 80 85 79 86 86 90
OFFLEE WILD 102 110 104 90 96 88 95 92 107 104
COUNTRY BE GOLD 94 96 89 92 92 96 94 102 97 100
ROGUE AGENT 105 74 94 84 86 85 97 99 94 103
COAST LINE 102 97 87 93 93 73
PRESIDENTIALAFFAIR 101 79 121 110 110 105 96 91 91 104

CryingForTheHorses
03-31-2005, 08:05 PM
Wow 60% of the 200k purse is a nice chunk of change. Hope to see you get a peice of it.
I dont understand CJ's numbers.Cj, Is it time comsuming to explain?.Good luck SC!

Zaf
03-31-2005, 09:01 PM
WOW Storm,

He's in some tough company. Hope he does well !!!

ZAFONIC

kingfin66
04-01-2005, 12:03 AM
Wow 60% of the 200k purse is a nice chunk of change. Hope to see you get a peice of it.
I dont understand CJ's numbers.Cj, Is it time comsuming to explain?.Good luck SC!

I don't mean to sound sarcastic here, so I apolgize in advance if I do. The higher number is better than the lower number. Each number working left to right represents the horse's races from most recent to least recent. I'm not sure why some are bold and some are not.

Zaf
04-01-2005, 12:21 AM
Bold means same surface & within 1/2 furlong of todays distance.

ZAFONIC

Storm Cadet
04-01-2005, 09:13 AM
http://www.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=27425

Gonna be tough for DG but fun for me... ;)

joeprunes
04-01-2005, 09:16 AM
This is how I read them . The numbers represent how the horse ran overall. Now whats impotant is his next race, the numbers have to be within 2 to4 numbers within his last. progressing is better regressing. If the numbers gradually incress the horse is getting in better form. Every time a horse gets a higher number than his highest past numbers that will be the horses new top which is good . If the horses next race his numbers drop more than 5 or more the horse mite bounce but could still win the race if he drops to a number that is still higher than all the other horses highest number. The thing is to see how a horse is peaking or regressin by the numbers made by CJ. Even if a horses last number is the highest it doesnt mean he is the best horse. Others with lower numbers that are peaking gradully with numbers close to the horse with the highest number can win.
Check cj`s chart look at presidentialaffair When he got the 121 which is very high, it was his new top and the next time out bounced alot(79). Some times it takes awhile for the horse to get back in form from abounce but in his case he still came back with 101 (back in form) which is good enough to win a race even though it wasnt as high as his 121 top. Hope I explained this alright I did it quickly. This is how I use numbers I started with rags to thorograph now cj has them and they work. Its how you interpret them. I use to use them with my regular handicapping....joeprunes

OTM Al
04-01-2005, 09:25 AM
On figs alone, it looks a little rough for him, but given his style, I think he has a shot to get in the money. My first look at the PPs seemed to indicate there may well be a 3-4 horse duel early. If he can stay close enough, by the time they hit the stretch, he may be able to pick up the pieces of a pace collapse. Best of luck! I'll be cheering him on.

Suff
04-01-2005, 10:20 AM
This is how I read them . ....joeprunes

Joe your using CJ's Figs huh? I didn't know that. I thought you were strictly with Jim Lehane. Did you two guys meet 2 years ago at Saratoga?

joeprunes
04-01-2005, 10:40 AM
Suff, no we never met. No I`m still using lehane. But I enjoy going over cj`s figures as I did thorographs figures. TG`s figures are very accurate but expensive its for big time bettors. I`ve been fooling with cj`s to see how they are but he change his format to just last numbers. I was fooling with his pace numbers. I`ve talk with cj only on line and he has been very helpfull and always responds back even though he`s a busy guy. His figures can be very valueable if used correctly....joe

Suff
04-01-2005, 10:51 AM
Suff, no we never met.

Thats to bad, I think he showed the day you left. You were there a week, he was there 4 days..I was there 12 days...so It was a twist of fate that you didn't cross paths.

Good chance you'll meet this year. I have to fine tune a few idea's, then stick a thermometer into the board and see what the appetite is for Toga3..

Probably going to put something up tommorrow

BillW
04-01-2005, 11:11 AM
Ron,

Give DG a few carrots for me and wish him the best of trips. I'll be watching and rooting.

Bill

JustRalph
04-01-2005, 12:08 PM
anybody want to analyze the race pace scenario? I suck at pace at predicting a pace scenario........I sure do like DG's heart. After that last race...... I would never count him completely out. Looks like a tough nut...........though

Storm Cadet
04-01-2005, 12:14 PM
Pres Affair scratched this AM...we are going to wait to see if anybody else scratches before we go ahead. We are going to make it a race time (45 minutes) decision before race goes to make the call as we are also entered in an allowance race on Sunday too!

cj
04-01-2005, 12:20 PM
I'll run my numbers for Sunday a little later and post them. I think he is in way too deep on Saturday, but hey, you'll never know if you don't try, eh?

Zaf
04-01-2005, 12:26 PM
Joe,

Thanks for your Form Cycle Analysis. CJ any thoughts on this ?

ZAFONIC

cj
04-01-2005, 12:33 PM
I'm a huge form cycle guy, that's why I stagger the figures according to how fast they were. I do agree with Joe. When an older horse suddenly records a big number, I expect regression unless there is something to explain the big number, i.e a trainer change, lasix, equipment change, etc.

In this particular case, I'm a little skeptical of the 121 anyway as it was the Ghostzapper win in a 3 horse field in the slop. Also, its at a very rarely run distance at Monmouth, 1 1/8 miles, so making the figures is tough. I like to see another race at least close to the 121. I think the best we are going to get from this guy is in the 110 range. I won't be betting this race, I think the two faves stand out since the horse we are talking about scratched.

bobbyb
04-01-2005, 12:52 PM
DG on the JUMBOTRON :jump:

I'll be watchin on the Casino Jumbotron, Storm - Saturday or Sunday. Good Luck DG !! :ThmbUp:

bobbyb :cool:

CryingForTheHorses
04-01-2005, 03:19 PM
I'll run my numbers for Sunday a little later and post them. I think he is in way too deep on Saturday, but hey, you'll never know if you don't try, eh?

CJ you are right. You cant win if you dont try.NOTHING like being the underdog and beating them.Im sure DG wll try hard as he always does.Hope he woops em

joeprunes
04-01-2005, 03:25 PM
CJ, right on. There are too many variables in a race to go along with the number. In one turn races how quick is the turn how wide Etc. In a 2 turn race how quick was the time of the turns that race against the horse got his number in a 1 turn race same distance. these are some of the variables you encounter, sooo its not easy. But cj gives you an edge and he does all the work, its up to you to decipher this info...joeprunes

IRISHLADSTABLE
04-02-2005, 11:27 AM
I see DG entered on Sat and Sun. I believe GD over his head on Sat
Better fit in Alw company on Sun. Best of Luck were ever you run.

Jimmy

Hammerhead
04-02-2005, 11:49 AM
Slick willy has DG running 6th before scratches around 10 lengths back. Makes no differance I'm betting him to win anyway and in all exotics. :cool:

BIG RED
04-02-2005, 12:04 PM
I won't be betting the race myself, looks like a two horse race now. I will be rooting for him if he races Ron, good luck. (will an off-track move DG up significantly??)

IRISHLADSTABLE
04-02-2005, 12:59 PM
Makes sense fits better in Sun 8th race alw 4 & up. Small compact field
of 5 . Like Stellianos and DG. Will take a better look tonight.
One things for sure at least you'll get a piece of the purse.

Jimmy
.

cj
04-02-2005, 01:21 PM
A much better fit for DG!


1 STELLIANOS 89 82 71 90 77 87 80 81 50 66
2 BAHAMA JOHN 91 98 88 89 82 99 75 63
3 COINED FOR SUCCESS 91 85 94 89 76 93 70 88 92 70
4 MAKE MY DAY JUR 92 93 91 92 105 86 85 83 79 86
5 DILIGENT GAMBLER 89 84 78 89 76 81 75 82 83 86