Randy Giles' Pace Appraiser?

[andicap]

Anyone tried this since he upgraded to a downloaded version?

Looks like from help files you just pick the pacelines and it spits out the figures that you ask for.

10-day free trial too.

[Tom]

I have the demo...you can choose how many lines to use - last, last 3, all, etc.

Then it spits out the whole card. you can lookat is on screen or print it out, but printing is slow and cumbersome.

Not sure what the numbers mean, though - you get a pace number, ie 104, but for speed figs, you get 93/98, or 83/84?????

[Maxspa]

Andicap,
I've used the download version since it has been available. It gives you a choice of pp lines: All, one, three or ten. One is the last line, three is the last three lines etc. This version is a time saver for me! I couldn't use the manual input version and keep up with the downloads, scratches etc and then attend the races on time.
One positive addition to the program imho would be a scratch module so you would print only the horses that are running in the program you are handicapping.
When I saw the Pitlak group developed an adaptation to the Sartin Energy number, I thought about you! Since I don't use energy, I can't evaluate whether it is an improvement or not!
Maxspa

[andicap]

Andicap,
I've used the download version since it has been available. It gives you a choice of pp lines: All, one, three or ten. One is the last line, three is the last three lines etc. This version is a time saver for me! I couldn't use the manual input version and keep up with the downloads, scratches etc and then attend the races on time.
One positive addition to the program imho would be a scratch module so you would print only the horses that are running in the program you are handicapping.
When I saw the Pitlak group developed an adaptation to the Sartin Energy number, I thought about you! Since I don't use energy, I can't evaluate whether it is an improvement or not!
Maxspa

I'm waiting to hear Keilan's take on how Pitlak measures %E. They square all the velocities and then divide them to get a figure that is on either side of 1.00, the lower the more sustained.
In the usual fashion you do't square the velocities, but Pitlak quotes Einstein of all people! (E=Mc2) as his rationale for squaring them.

so instead of EP=54.00, f3=52 and %E is calcuated by 54/106 - 50.94 (kind of sustained on dirt, especially in routes,)
Pitlak goes 54.00 * 54.00 /52*52 or 2916/2704 = 1.08
obviously 1.0 would be the equivelant of a 50.00

Haven't had time to figure out what it all means.

[andicap]

I have the demo...you can choose how many lines to use - last, last 3, all, etc.

Then it spits out the whole card. you can lookat is on screen or print it out, but printing is slow and cumbersome.

Not sure what the numbers mean, though - you get a pace number, ie 104, but for speed figs, you get 93/98, or 83/84?????

Have you e-mailed Randy? He's generally pretty good at getting back to you.

[Speed Figure]

The 1st number is the bris speed figure. The 2nd looks like his adjusted speed figure.

[andicap]

Yep, I just went on the site and could barely make it out (his screenshots should really be larger). You can tell because when a race is "Par," the two speed figs are equal. When its fast the second figure is larger than the first and when its slow the second figure is slower than the first. So the 2nd figure is the adjusted one.

[Speed Figure]

The program seems pretty basic to me, and no turf races. :eek:

[witchdoctor]

He alwaso has started a blog and appears to analyze various races.

http://www.paceappraiser.com/blog/index.php?m=200503

[andicap]

scratch function is coming soon, he says on his blog.

[Speed Figure]

I'm been playing around with the manual input part of the program, the faster the pace and the slower the final time, the bigger the pace velocity is. When inputting the Lil Red Flyer race from TP it came up with a "fast 2" and a 102 for the pace figure. When you put the final time at say 1:10 it says "fast 9" and the pace figure now says 109. Why does the pace figure get bigger as the final time get's slower. These are my figures for Lil Red Flyer.



EP LP FT RC HC
Lil Red Flyer 117 97 104 97 97


RC is Race Class/ HC is Horse Class.

[Tom]

Who is Pitlak?

[Maxspa]

Tom,
There are some handicappers from Poultney, Vermont, called the Pitlak group. They are also into handicapping other sports as well, as I found out when I checked their web site at www.sports-bet-advantage.com. I've had some dialogue regarding their products on e-bay and purchased Handicapper's Race Highlights.
They've brought some fresh new handicapping ideas to the table. How good are their products? Time and other astute handicappers will answer that
question!
Maxspa

[Diamond K]

Speed Figure:

Here is Randy's answer to your question. I have the program and was interested in your question as well since it was a good one, so I dropped Randy a note:

The pace figure is built on the pace of the race velocity plus lengths on or off the pace instead of pace of the horse. I wanted the pace figure to be as pure as I could make it, no variants to deal with and so forth. As the final time gets slower and the pace velocity remains the same the energy distribution of the race changes to increase the pace of the race velocity. For example, say, a 44.4 is par for a 1:09 and the horse was on the lead then the pace figure would be 100. Now let’s say the final time is 1:10 for that same pace. That would make the pace figure 105 to reflect the pace of the race velocity, which tells us the horse ran faster to the pace call relative to that particular final time. This way it’s easier to visualize the match-up if you run it through the Recent Performance Chart and it gives you a picture of how the energy was distributed in that particular race as well. So the pace figure not only gives us a pace number but a reading on the pace of the race velocity. In the end we are comparing apples to apples as we analyze the field of horses all coming from different tracks because all the pace figures are controlled by pace of the race velocity and energy distribution.

[Lefty]

Tom, I dl'd it last night and found the printing to be pretty fast. I have a laser printer.

[Speed Figure]

Speed Figure:

Here is Randy's answer to your question. I have the program and was interested in your question as well since it was a good one, so I dropped Randy a note:

The pace figure is built on the pace of the race velocity plus lengths on or off the pace instead of pace of the horse. I wanted the pace figure to be as pure as I could make it, no variants to deal with and so forth. As the final time gets slower and the pace velocity remains the same the energy distribution of the race changes to increase the pace of the race velocity. For example, say, a 44.4 is par for a 1:09 and the horse was on the lead then the pace figure would be 100. Now let’s say the final time is 1:10 for that same pace. That would make the pace figure 105 to reflect the pace of the race velocity, which tells us the horse ran faster to the pace call relative to that particular final time. This way it’s easier to visualize the match-up if you run it through the Recent Performance Chart and it gives you a picture of how the energy was distributed in that particular race as well. So the pace figure not only gives us a pace number but a reading on the pace of the race velocity. In the end we are comparing apples to apples as we analyze the field of horses all coming from different tracks because all the pace figures are controlled by pace of the race velocity and energy distribution.
That just dozen make any sense to me.

[Lefty]

how do you relate horses one to another in this prg? For Instance, 1st R at OP Sat.
Archie B fast 4 94, 75/79
CJ's Country fast 3 102 66/69
Which is to be preferred?

[andicap]

I think you have to read Randy's articles on his site to understand his thinking.

Basically his Hot pace races are not based on par figures per se the way we know them but how they relate to final times.

Through his research he has determind -- hypothetically since I don't have the exact figure -- that if a horse runs 1:10 for a 6f race at Delaware, he should run a 45 pace figure. That is the way his energy should be distributed.

The faster a horse runs early, the slower his final time SHOULD BE. Horses that outperform the deceleration pars Randy has compiled for each track get rewarded in their final times. And horses that run slower early should have more energy -- or gas left in the tank -- to run a bigger final fraction. He eschews horses with those huge final fractions after they follow slow early paces. After all, closers who run slower than usual early should have even more left in the tank to run a huge 3rd frction.

No class consideration here. After all a horse who runs a 45 111 is better than a horse who runs a 46 111 no matter what their classes are. This is aside from all pace analysis and how the race sets up.

OK Now to answer Lefty's question
-------------------------------------------
how do you relate horses one to another in this prg? For Instance, 1st R at OP Sat.
Archie B fast 4 94, 75/79
CJ's Country fast 3 102 66/69
Which is to be preferred?
-------------------------------------
A horse that runs a faster pace figure like CJ did SHOULD run a slower final time and he did. But CJ still outperformed the par by 3 ticks.
My adjustments could be wrong but par for running a 102 pace figure is a 63. Since CJ outdid that by 3 ticks, he gets a 3 tick bump in his speed figure.

Archie ran a 94 -- a much slower pace figure so he SHOULD run a faster race than CJ, a 71, according to Randy. Since he ran a 75, or 4 ticks higher than "par" he gets rewarded with a 79 final figure. He could easily do a 96/80 if he gets loose.

I would prefer Archie since he ran faster than he should have, according to the deceleration/energy pars Randy compiled, and still had a 10 pt higher speed figure.

BUT if there is not much speed upfront than CJ could relax to a 96 and improve as well. By Randy's calcuation his adjusted final time would probably still be a tick or so slower than Archile, but horses who get loose on the lead can often get real brave and put up unreal final times even if their pace figures are fast.

I think that's why you sometimes see a horse with these lines.

1-5 1-3 1-3 1-3 106 105

2-.5 2/1 2/hd 3-1 102 100

Doesn't make sense at first glance right? Faster early should have meant death late. But getting loose relaxed them so much they outran their apparent limitations.
I love betting against these horses with huge pace/final figures next time out if they figure to get heat upfront.
(never mind the bounce factor.)

Or I bollocksed the whole thing up and it's completely the converse. Feel free to set me straight.

:D

[Diamond K]

I sent Randy Giles the post from AndiCap and he said "Thank you for the Andicap follow. I think he did a good job."

I also received this email from Randy and he gave me his permission to post it so as to shed some light on his approach to the program. I own the program and found this to be informative so here is his reply to an email of mine:

First of all let me stay that my pace figures are not conventional pace figures. It has been my experience (I want to emphasize “my experience”, which doesn’t mean it’s true for everyone.) that conventional pace figures simply don’t add anything to the bottom line. What I have found that works is this: Doc Quirin’s speed points. Time and time again they have out performed conventional pace figures. I’ve research this single area for over 10 years. If you want to know who’s going to be in front in at the first call then speed points are the way to go. An early pace horse with 5 speed points will be positioned 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the first call 52% of the time. Follow it up to 8 speed points and you’re there 82% of the time. That’s powerful. To improve on this you must know how to label running styles.

Now back to my pace figures. My pace figures, as I said before, are based on pace of the race velocity. Here’s the advantage. When you look at my pace figures and see a 98 (par is always 100) and the pace of the race velocity was Fast 3, let’s say, you know that the horse was 5 lengths off the leader at the pace call. (100 – 98 – 3 = 5 lengths) A 96 against a Slow 2 lets you know that the horse was 2 lengths off the leader at the pace call. (100 – 96 + 2 = 2) In other words, you get a pace figure and a visual of the last race running style of each horse. As you watch races you’ll see time and again that the race unfolds to the “pace” call, not first call, just as these pace figures pointed out. Using this approach you can see that as the pace time stays the same and the final time slows the pace velocity rating increases as well as the pace figure. The adjusted speed figure, which is the second figure after the pace figure in the program’s data file readout, will increase or decrease relative to the pace velocity and pace figure results as well. My research tells me this works. But I realize it’s an unconventional approach.

I’m going to do something now that I don’t usually do because when I see it done I think it’s probably disingenuous, like “hey folks, get rich on $45 horses everyday!” The truth is most days you’re going lose. But, I get so many emails about this I want to take a chance and record it here. This will give you an idea of one of the ways this program can be used. It’s as close to a system that I will ever use. Here goes.

I was asked to handicap the Oaklawn card for today to shed some light on how to use the program. All my handicapping sessions start with labeling running styles and making pace pictures and then noting any pace aberrations. But today I decided to play adjusted speed figures along with the pace velocity ratings. The only other qualifier was the horse could not be at an extreme pace disadvantage. I simply will not play horses with an extreme pace match-up disadvantage. For example, a deep closer with all the numbers that’s in with a lone front runner is a waste of money. So, the horse had to have the best velocity rating + the best ADJUSTED speed figure along with no extreme pace match-up disadvantage. I used the TSN data file, the .50 version. No Bris power ratings and the rest.

Race 1: No qualifier – The winner was Masbut and paid $5. Program output was Fast 1 – 91 – 84/85 (velocity rating, pace figure, TSN figure along with adjusted figure.) which were the top figures in the field along with no pace disadvantage.

Race 2: Uncle Toodie – finished 2nd . The last race paceline looked like this: Fast 4 – 104 – 63/69. Slick Carson won and paid $40.00 with a paceline of Fast 3 - 103 – 50/55. Incidentally, Slick Carson fit my speed figure competitive range I wrote about in one of the free articles on my website. The Fast 3 and the competitive range speed figure would qualify him as a overlaid contender. But today my focus was on another profile.

Race 3: Timber Ack – Win @ $14.20 – Timbar Ack stalked the pace and took over inside the 16th pole. The paceline was: Fast 5 – 103 – 69/74. I had labeled Timbar Ack as a Presser Closer (P/C) but as you can see in his last race he was only 2 lengths off the pace against a Fast 5! That’s the profile of a horse in top condition.

Race 4: No qualifier – The winner was the odds on favorite and paid $3.20. No stood out in this race. It was a routine maiden claimer dropping after finishing second in its last race. Boring and an underlay to boot.

Race 5: No qualifier – The winner was Darkly Noon. Last paceline was: Par – 100 – 82/82. Another competitive speed figure horse and an overlaid contender but again not today’s focus.

Race 6: This is Doc: Win @ $7.40. Paceline: Fast 4 – 96 – 73/79. Nothing in the field came close to this line.

Race 7: No qualifier – Blazing Count won and paid $6.00 with a Fast 3 – 103 – 76/81. The next best paceline in the field was Winning Flames, Fast 5 – 105 – 76/81 and finished second.

Race 8: No qualifier – Another Elusive won and paid $3.80 with a paceline of Fast 3 – 103 – 75/79. FYI, Another Elusive was an E 8, the lone front runner.

Race 9: Causal Cat – finished 2nd – Paceline was: Fast 2 – 102 – 87/89. Wild Wild West won with a last race paceline of Par – 100 – 84/84, which was the next best paceline to Causal Cat.

Race10: She’s a Rebel Too – finished out of the money with a last race paceline of Fast 5 – 96 – 83/91. This was a Skt50000 race. The winner was Savorthetime that had won a Grade 3 race. On a regular day She’s a Rebel Too, which was a claiming horse, would not have been a play. Class factors matter. No matter today, make the play.

Race11: Kansas Blues ( Fast 2 – 102 – 85/88) – Finished 3rd - Quapaw Charlie won and had a last paceline of Par – 100 – 81/81. The 81 was the second best speed figure in the field behind Kansas Blues.

The profile: Top pace rating in the field along with the top adjusted speed figure in the field. Plus, the pace match-up did not put the horse at an extreme disadvantage.

The results:

33% Winners

$12.00 invested (based on 2 dollar bets for ease)

$21.60 gross

$9.60 profit

80% ROI

There it is. I’m sure you’re saying this is only a day? You would be right. Just as I did with my old articles, I report what I find.

Hope this helps.

Randy

[JimL]

Diamond K, thank you for posting. Andicap, as usual a very informative post. JimL

[TRM]

Quick Question:

When Randy talks about the pace being Slow 2 or Fast 5, what is the reference? Is that how the last race pace call was run based on his par figs? This is something (being a pace capper) that I would like to explore in more detail.

[andicap]

I would go to his site paceappraiser.com and read the articles posted on the site. They are excellent manuals on pace handicapping and how he uses his figures and how they are developed.

[midnight]

I tried his program for a few days and read the articles on his site. I like the articles---they contain some interesting ideas, but I honestly don't understand how his figures are made or how they relate to each other. To be fair, I'm not a pace handicapper, so the program will probably be useful to somebody who's more focussed on pace than I am.

[TRM]

Thanks for the reply's Mid and Andi. I thought (or maybe) there was an author like J. Quinn or B. Quirin that had discussed something similiar, but I can't seem to find it listed. I'll touch base with Randy.