same data, different conclusions

[46zilzal]

At the outset, let me state a premise I am sure all would agree with: THERE IS NO ONE WAY TO INTERPRET ANYTHING Okay?

Following an idea I had (expressed through MULTIPLE examples and substantiated independently by several other observers) about horses IN SPECIFIC SITUATIONS apprearing, via MY DATA, to be going off form, I quoted ONE example of Barrythegold in New York which brought out a S***STORM of protest. Funny how emotions flare over simple differences of opinion.

Funny thing: I started to follow this one (an correct me if I am wrong please) via DRF's virtual stable to see what would happen down the line. After the specific race where it failed, this one came back versus MUCH easier to win, and NOW has disappeared form all the work tabs.

Wouldn't that hint of some physical problem here? I am sure there are a hunderd other reasons as well (could have been sold, shipped to another locale etc.)

If anyone knows what happened to this one, I would appreciate the information.

[cj]

MUCH easier is just your opinion. The race conditions were exactly the same. We've had this debate though, not really worth getting into.

As you say, many things could have happened that may or may not have anything to do with going off form. If the horse merely changed circuits, you would still get stable mail.

[46zilzal]

MUCH easier is just your opinion. The race conditions were exactly the same. We've had this debate though, not really worth getting into.

As you say, many things could have happened that may or may not have anything to do with going off form. If the horse merely changed circuits, you would still get stable mail.

CONDTIONS written in the racing office do not measure the contest out on the racetrack: it is the interaction of the combatants. To characterize the contests as the same because the CONDTIONS books said so is a bit naive.

[cj]

I really didn't want to rehash it. The point was, just because you put it in CAPS doesn't make it true, it was your opinion, nothing more. Maybe right, maybe wrong, and I'm not going back into my files to see. I know I thought she was in a good spot the day she won, and not so the time she lost, so maybe it was easier. Maybe the pace set up was better when she won. I don't remember.

[46zilzal]

IMaybe the pace set up was better when she won. I don't remember.
BINGO, was not chasing a speed merchant on a speedy track last race

[keilan]

At the outset, let me state a premise I am sure all would agree with: THERE IS NO ONE WAY TO INTERPRET ANYTHING Okay?

Following an idea I had (expressed through MULTIPLE examples and substantiated independently by several other observers) about horses IN SPECIFIC SITUATIONS apprearing, via MY DATA, to be going off form, I quoted ONE example of Barrythegold in New York which brought out a S***STORM of protest. Funny how emotions flare over simple differences of opinion.

Funny thing: I started to follow this one (an correct me if I am wrong please) via DRF's virtual stable to see what would happen down the line. After the specific race where it failed, this one came back versus MUCH easier to win, and NOW has disappeared form all the work tabs.

Wouldn't that hint of some physical problem here? I am sure there are a hunderd other reasons as well (could have been sold, shipped to another locale etc.)
If anyone knows what happened to this one, I would appreciate the information.

46 -- the best thing to do is learn from your mistakes and move on. Barrythegold raced back at the same class level, same track (nw1) when he won. How much inferior could the field have been? You're again starting to sound like a poor loser and a cry baby.


Give it a rest already :)

[keilan]

BINGO, was not chasing a speed merchant on a speedy track last race

You're even dumber than I thought, CJ and I both gave you reasons then why we felt the horse WASN'T going off form and one of those reason had to do with pace and being 3 wide. Now you come back and say BINGO.

BUT since his energy numbers had increased, you proclaimed to everyone here how the horse was going off form yada yada yada.

[46zilzal]

I simply wanted to know If anyone knows the disposition of the horse BarrytheGold

CLEAR ENOUGH?

[46zilzal]

46 -- the best thing to do is learn from your mistakes and move on. Barrythegold raced back at the same class level, same track (nw1) when he won. How much inferior could the field have been? You're again starting to sound like a poor loser and a cry baby. )

Sorry to upset you, but MY only betting experience with this one was Feb 2, 2005 when I bet against it with both hands on a nag called Fiddler's Pride.

a lot inferior as compared to Feb 2nd

[keilan]

I simply wanted to know If anyone knows the disposition of the horse BarrytheGold

CLEAR ENOUGH?


hehe -- yeah you want to know the disposition of Barrythegold. yep that sounds clear enough. Now explain whatever the hell that means, better yet forget I mentioned it.

You don't upset me in the least, matter fact if you hadn't mentioned this horse two starts back I would have missed cashing a sizeable win ticket on him. I stated that your conclusions were flawed and incorrect and gave you reasons why.

After the horse comes back and wins his next start you begin with the field was so weak, then you start this thread and yak about the S*** Storm it caused, how emotions flare over simple differences of opinion. Are you trying to save face that somehow if the horse hasn’t raced since his off form win that your deductions were somehow correct? Christ man get over yourself, everyone who plays this game makes incorrect decisions but most of us try and learn from it and move onto the next race.

If you really want to follow this horse and know if he’s training etc why haven’t you added him to your stable mail?

[46zilzal]

If you read the other posts, you might read that I already did that and even wrote to the track today to see if they have some insight on this matter.

Learn form WHAT mistake??? didn't make one in this regard

[Tom]

WEAK filed, INFERIOR horses.....hmmmmmmm.

Why if I hadn't been enlightened already, I might be tempted to say this could be CLASS!
But we all know that dosen't exist!:bang:

BTW, that is why I LOVE NW1 races - you get a lot of levels of horses going through that condition...eventual stakes winners. eventual claimers, strong claimers looking for spot spots.

[Brian Flewwelling]

I simply wanted to know If anyone knows the disposition of the horse BarrytheGold

CLEAR ENOUGH?

i can't find any reference to a horse called BarrytheGold in my database... is this exactly the right spelling? ... spelling from PA posts is not good enuff for Stable mail and the like!

Brian

[sjk]

Try Berrythegold.

[46zilzal]

yup. misspelled it....Still the DRF virtual stable reports nothing on this one

[46zilzal]

Keep databases on all these nags?...That is a lot of work! Thought that was what DRF, Equibase and the other data gathering places were for. TOO much work for TOO little reponse for me, but MORE power to you.

[keilan]

And the winner is..................... Berrythegold :lol: :lol:

[keilan]

Monmouth Park - July 27, 2005 - Race 6--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And the winner is..................... Berrythegold :lol: :lol: :lol:

46 this horse hasn't lost since you said that he has gone off form.

[Tom]

46, got any more out of form horses on your list? ;)

[46zilzal]

after three months on the sidelines FORM can reverse...I was noting a SHORT term form cylce after which this nag DISAPPEARED from February to early Summer.

The data backed up that assertion.

[Tom]

That's OK, I'll take whatever you have there! :)

[46zilzal]

off over 100 days and then drops from allowance to 12500...Trainers don't offer stock that cheap unless there is something WRONG. Kudo's for getting the animal where it had a shot after the recuperation.

MY ONLY ASSERTION and still is, is that the data indicated this one was going off form and the connections give that SAME inference.

[keilan]

He won his next race after you claimed that he had gone off form. If you recall it was February 3rd when you had this revelation about energy and declared him as a perfect example of a horse going off form. I told you then you were mistaken and on March 3rd the horse came back and won, then again, and now again. So don't start yapping about a 3 month layoff when the horse won 30 days after you started this crusade. If you want any credibility around here start with being honest.

You must shudder everytime he goes to the gate :lol: :lol: :lol:

[keilan]

Ohhhhhh and his beyer numbers are about the highest they have ever been but then again what does Andy Beyer know, heck everyones heard of 46 :D

Guess it wasn't you're lucky day when you came here talking about energy.

[46zilzal]

PARALLEL EXAMPLE
Five people read a book about New Orleans in the 1950's and afterward an interested educator asks for evaluations.

1) "That was the most racist bunch of crap I have ever read."
2) "The story brought back good memories of my visiting my grandmother and taking the train to see her the first time in 1955."
3) I always LOVED reading about the South and the descriptions there just made me want to visit it before I die."
4) "Great philosophic story on how to remain happy despite your surrounding of poverty."
5) "I lived in New Orleans MOST of my life and this author hasn't a clue how to capture the true nature of that culture."

SAME BOOK, SAME WORDS. Very divergent results

You see one thing I see another..simple

[keilan]

okay don't tell me but were the five people -- You, your Mom & Dad and two sisters. :p :lol: :liar:

[kenwoodallpromos]

46- do you consider there to be a difference between dropping to win because of it going off form and dropping to a new level due to phyical problems? Maybe the horse came back after the 100 days and has a chronic problem, but can still run and win at a lower level but not in allowances?

[46zilzal]

FORM::: that state of phsyical status which allows an animal to perform to it's potential.........whatever takes away from that POTENTIAL undermines that.....The trainer becomes aware through a variety of signs and acts accordingly, USUALLY giving the animal time away from the rigors of training and racing so that it can come back to that potential.

Geldings usually hold form better than any other race horses.

OTHER trainers know when there is a decline and realize that there are NO bargains in the training game particularly when an animal DROPS off a win following a long layoff. No claims here after an allowance to 12,500 and then to 10,000.

Everything here says damaged goods.

[cj]

Yet somehow the horse keeps running just as fast figure wise...hmmm.

[Hosshead]

FORM::: that state of phsyical status which allows an animal to perform to it's potential.........whatever takes away from that POTENTIAL undermines that.....The trainer becomes aware through a variety of signs and acts accordingly, USUALLY giving the animal time away from the rigors of training and racing so that it can come back to that potential.Potential = At the Present Time. (Meaning it's always changing) So the trainer estimated his Potential/(present condition) lay at 12,500 That Day
Sounds like the trainer knew this horse pretty good.

[hurrikane]

Just to throw a little gas on the fire.

the strength of race rating I have for the 6/18 is actually higher than the rating for the races in Feb and March. Which by the way seem to be equal in strength.

The strength number is an HTR number and likely meaningless to most but the basic premise is this

take a look at the races the horese have run recently. Decide based on that info what the winner, whoever that is, needs to run today to beat the field. Like projecting a Beyer into a race.

anyway, based on the field this horse has not lost anything. And take your hat off to Bruce for dropping him in and stealing a purse.

[keilan]

This is getting funny -- 12.5k or 10k claimers all have issues, it wasn’t like this guy went from a 100k – 80k claimer to the bottom of the class level, he’s been there forever. This is a NY bred who broke his mdn in a mind-boggling 1:13.0 for 6f then moved up to Alw43000N1X and raced there a total of 7 times, also raced once as a 3yo in a claiming race 35-40k non winners of 2 which was the only race to that point which wasn’t carded for state breds (and we all know how those NY bred horses can run). :D Oh and that inner course at Aqu December thru March is where all the classer horses run according to guys like 46.

So anyone talking about how this horse is now mysteriously dropping doesn’t understand much about class levels imho. The "h" stands for humble :lol: