Handicapping owners?

[JohnB]

Has anyone ever tried to handicap owners as an approach? In Steve Collison's book, "Inside the Claiming Game", one of his handicapping principles seems to be to look at horse racing as a business, and to examine how the people involved in the business of horse racing actually make money at it. In this manner, he studies trainers and how they operate, specifically in terms of how they handle claims.

Has anyone taken these principles and applied them to the actual owners of the horses? Since the owners are actually the ones paying all the business expenses (risking the most in terms of money, and making the most money when their horses win), could you apply the same principles of tracking trainer tendencies to owners and their tendencies? Are enough owners "hands on" enough to where you could get a handle of when they are "trying"? Do enough owners bet on their own horses to make it possible to get a sense of when they are "trying"? For example, a particular owner wins 50% of the time when the odds are below 3-1 (or 4-1 or 5-1, or whatever level turns up in a study of that particular owner), indicating that he or she "knows" when their horse has a good shot to win?

Curious to see if anyone has used this approach, or thinks it would have potential.

John

[GameTheory]

You might be able to come up with something for a few specific owners, but in general, there are so MANY owners, and so many new owners all the time that it would be very tough. Maybe the occasional owner-trainer combo would have certain patterns that didn't apply to different owners with the same trainer, but I doubt you could get many plays out of owner handicapping...

[LoganDimes]

Interesting thought, but presents a major sample size problem. Not to mention some owners are hands-off, which makes them pretty useless for handicapping purpose.

[Amazin]

John

A handicapper I know uses the Owner-Trainer method exclusively as his handicapping arsenal.He doesn't use a racing form.He only uses the program to see the owner/trainer combo.He has done extremelly well.I am amazed of his knowledge of owners.He doesn't come in with data written on his palm or something like that.He keeps it all in his head.He basically has studied owner patterns,and just commits it to memory. I've had the inclination to emulate his method a few times but give up after one day due to the large number of owners.He's studied them for years. However since we live in Northern Cal.he only does the northern and southern Cal. circuit,not the entire country.He's given our little circle of handicappers a few tips like when a certain owner has an entry,he's noticed that it rarely wins.We follow his advice and throw them out of our selections.Alot of times these entries are odds on and are tough to pass on.,but he's usually right. But like I said,it would take a long time to master this method and use it solely in your handicapping.It's not for me . By the way,the reason you would have to use this method exclusively as your handicapping tool,is because if you looked at a form,you would change your mind and miss out on some monstrous payouts,which is how he makes his money with this method.

[smf]

JohnB,

I've definitely tried (still use) Collison's methods. Tracking owners will definitely help you. All the things to look for he mentions in his book about owners are solid. Tracking class drops, hit rate first off claim, fire sales at the claimbox are pretty valuable items to be aware of.

As far as owners betting, I've seen owners post on boards that they only bet $20 on their horses, and I've heard at LS that a couple of owners bet over 5k fairly often.

The more you use Collison's methods the more you'll learn about owners, and the business of racing. One word of caution tho, if you try to cover too many tracks your knowledge base on the subject gets watered down. I've been there, done that.

[Show Me the Wire]

JohnB:

Just because an owner bets his horse it doesn't mean the horse will win. Both trainers and owners are guilty of overestimating their horses chances of winning. What is important is the horse is sound enough to run and is facing the correct competition.

It is better to focus on the trainer.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

[ridersup]

Show Me The Wire

Are you still doing well with the Maidens at Gulfstream? Enjoyed your prior posts in that area.

As far as owners are concerned I wouldn't make that the sole basis of my handicapping but there are some owner-trainer combos that can't be ignored.

For example Glenn Hill Farm and Tom Proctor at Tampa Bay at one point were 62% winners from 24 starters. Of those 24 starters 21 were in the money so it would be foolish to ignore that stat.

Owner Anthony Barbanti at one point had 22 starters with 8 winners 3 seconds and 7 thirds. Thats 18 in the money for 22 starts. Not a bad trifecta key bet.

Leading trainer Don Rice when sending out horses owned by his wife Maxine was 38% winner from 21 starters.

All this info is available to bettors in the Tampa Bay program and has been taken from the progmam showing races through March 29,2002.

You would think this info would depress the prices but just yesterday Don Rice brought in a horse owned by him at 7-1 odds or thereabout. Go figure.

[Show Me the Wire]

ridersup:

Sorry I took so long to respond to your post. I just saw it now. Yes, I still did okay at GP, but tired of the small fields and the quality of racing and turned my attention to Turfway. If you haven't noticed I have been focused in the copyright dialogue.

Went to GP this year and hung with the horsey types, especially one of my favorite trainers, Barb Pirie. This weekend I am heading to Keeneland for closing day and to Churchill Downs for opening day.

Of course, I agree with you certain owner trainer combinations are lethal. And yes it never surprises me the crowd dismisses these combos.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

p.s. I finally made journeyman, it took over a year.

[Tom]

How many books does Steve C have in print?
I have the one, but Ithought there was another (not counting the two page supplement).
This is some interesting reading.

Thanks,

[smf]

Tom,

The only book I have of Collison's is INSIDE THE CLAIMING GAME.

Obviously, I liked it. I can see it ain't for everybody but it does work.