Challenge to Tom Console

[midnight]

Mr. Console: I have a great idea. I'll buy your Instapick software for the $125 you ask. Since there's no user input needed, I should get the same selections anybody else would.

I'll post the Ultimate Selection horses ("hi-lite" plays as you put it) in the selections thread for one month. I'll post it for both win and place. I'll post for Aqueduct, Gulfstream/Calder, Santa Anita/Hollywood, Bay Meadows, Hawthorne, and Laurel/Pimlico. That's six track circuits for the whole month of April, posted the night before each day's races. If there's any dispute, I can post the screen capture for a given track so there's no question that I'm posting what the program tells me. That will cover about 120 racecards and well over 1,000 races, which should be a decent workout for the program.

You'll get $125 out of the deal, and if your program is as good as you say it is, you'll get a lot of business out of it.

Do I have your permission to do this?

[Suff]

I like a throw down now and then... its good for the juices. I'd send him an e-mail so he knows your calling him out.

Grudge handicapping goes back centuries. Matter of fact, Kings worked out thier grudges by beating others Kings best Stallions on the track.

Grudge Handicapping at the race track is a daily thing.. One guy says you don't know shit, you say he don't know shit...and away they go. Good stuff.


I'll also add this... From Hanging with the Public handicappers at Saratoga.. the competition is intensely personal. I once saw a National Handicapper have a Tissy fit in the press box... Not because he lost a bet.. but because another handicapper who busting his chops at Siro's that morning had the winner.

[Tom]

Ooooooo. Free advertising, free picks, daily excitement, woo hoo!

Tom?

[midnight]

In the SnapCap thread, Mr. Console declined to accept the invitation. What a surprise.

I'll have more to say later.

[Zaf]

If someone here buys his program, why can`t we post picks ?

ZAFONIC

[GameTheory]

If someone here buys his program, why can`t we post picks ?
Even if you can't the post the picks, I would trust the results reported from midnight much more than if they were reported from TomC....

[midnight]

I'm checking with some people about the legality of posting picks with the Instapick Ultimate software.

I don't know how I'd go about getting a copy, though. I don't want Mr. Console to have my personal information (name, address, etc.), which I'd have to give him in order to buy it directly from him.

Of course if somebody else (who was well known and trusted here, not a newbie) wanted to buy the software and then sell the original to me for what he paid for it (without keeping a personal copy, of course)........

[NoDayJob]

:liar: :liar: :liar: :liar: :liar: :liar: :liar: :liar: :liar: :liar:

So much for that program--- Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha

NDJ

[TomC]

Ultimate Plays Sunday: GP and SA are all I played
The suggestd way I state is betting win/place on the ULTIMATE plays.

GP: Race 1: #5 xxxx 3.00
Race 2 #5 $6.00 3.40
Race 6 #6 $4.00 2.60
On a $2 basis, bet 12, get $19. 1.58 ROI

SA Race 1: #1 $2.40 $2.20 yeee ha!
Race 2 #3 XXX 7.60
Race 3 #2 5.80 2.60
Race 5 #13 xxxx xxxx
On a $2 basis bet $16, get $20.60 ROI 1.287

Gulfstream on MONDAY 3/28
2 qualified plays. Chaulky
Race 1, #6
Race 7 #2

I usually play Instapick at SA and GP, Longshots at MNR.
Todays plays can be verified by anyone with the program.
Selections in this post are for entertainment pruposes ONLY. Not meant to induce gambling.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't want Mr. Console to have my personal information (name, address, etc.), which I'd have to give him in order to buy it directly from him.

Why are you worried about him having your personal information....as long as you don't write MIDNIGHT on the order form....

[midnight]

PA: I don't want to, for example, end up on a lot of mailing lists.

If I ordered the software off of Mr. Console's website in the next two weeks, I might be the only person who did so who wasn't a former customer.

[Hosshead]

I usually play Instapick at SA and GP, Longshots at MNR.
Todays plays can be verified by anyone with the program.
Selections in this post are for entertainment pruposes ONLY. Not meant to induce gambling.Not familiar with your sw. Have you done a workout (not thru RPM) on Ultimate plays over a period of time at most of the major tracks? If so, what were the results? Or does that method not work well at some tracks, so you use longshots? (MNR)

[Suff]

I
I don't know how I'd go about getting a copy, though. I don't want Mr. Console to have my personal information (name, address, etc.), which I'd have to give him in order to buy it directly from him.



well that aint right... Whats the fear? That'd he'd come to your house and punch in the nose? So what if he has your personal information.,, He should. Your implying he cannot do what he says he does... You want to do that from behind a curtain? Thats not right imho. I have no axe to grind with Tom C. Don't know him, seems like a decent guy. If your going to "shine" on him like your doing now... you gotta step out yourself.

Not saying you gotta put your name in NEON lights.

But wasn't one of your conditions that you'd buy the program if...? How were you going to do that if you wanted to remain completley anonymous?

[midnight]

Put your address and phone number on the hot marketing lists and watch how much mail and how many phone calls you get. Not for me, thanks.

I could buy the program through somebody else, but why bother? I made the offer to test the program, and Mr. Console turned me down in the other thread. That speaks volumes in itself. I'm not going to beg the man.

If you think he's a decent sort, then maybe you should go back and read some of his other posts. I stopped being civil to the man a long time ago because he's blown up repeatedly over any kind of challenge to him or his programs.

[TomC]

Thank you Suff for getting that point out. Remember that line "Do not pay attention to the man behind the curtain". But I just wanted to also make a point that I think is hilarious. Those same handul of guys do nothing but bash my programs, even though I never promise to make anyone rich AND they never buy them. Maybe they refer to RPM mailings that I have no control over once he buys the rights to things. But any e-mails I get when I am one on one with people, they can all tell you I tell it like it is. But thats not my point. The thing that is hilarious is that I look at the top of this page, and PA has ads on here that says "Win 5-7 races a day" (what playing 70 races maybe?) and another, the best, that says "98.1% win rate guaranteed". 98.1...wow, if they can only get the other 1.9%. Do I ever claim such nonsence? If I remeber correct, my web site for InstaPick Ultimate says overall, looking at every play, 25 to 36%, depending on tracks, and if you just use the suggested Ultimate plays, closer to 40% win, 65% win/place. I dont say they will be all huge prices (the Ultimate plays that is...the regular non ultimate plays will hit some longshots)...I state that many will be low, with your share of $12 to $15 winners, but DONT expect much over that as the plays are very strongly screened. Is that wild claims like they all yell about on this board....and its all done 100% mechanically for you, for just $125? ($125 if you buy from me, $250 from RPM or other distributors...and no, its NOT the same OLDER version RPM sells for $85!)
Ahhhh, whats the point.
Tom

[midnight]

Here are quotes from Mr. Console's Instapick website.

Would you like to earn good money at the races, but not have to spend hours working on it?


ARE YOU READY TO BE AN INSTANT WINNER?

Well look no more.....

InstaPick Ultimate

has arrived!

Those are implying, if not directly stating, that using Instapick as-is will show a positive ROI. My claim is that they will not. I'll go further and doubt that the ROI will be better than 0.90 (better than a 10% loss). I offered a challenge. Mr. Console turned it down. As I just stated, I'm not going to beg anybody to prove what I already know. If Mr. Console had said: "Okay, sure, bring it on," and I balked, it might be different, but that's not how it happened.

If Mr. Console changes his mind about the challenge, then I'll revisit it and (legally) obtain a copy of Instapick at my expense. All that's needed now is permission from Mr. Console to run a full four-week Instapick workout for every track that BRIS/TSN covers in the Selections forum here.

[PaceAdvantage]

I have no axe to grind with Tom C. Don't know him, seems like a decent guy. If your going to "shine" on him like your doing now... you gotta step out yourself.

Holy shit man. This from the same guy that just wrote that thread bashing software sellers in the Barry Meadow thread? :lol:

[Steve 'StatMan']

Mr. Console: I have a great idea. I'll buy your Instapick software for the $125 you ask. Since there's no user input needed, I should get the same selections anybody else would.

I'll post the Ultimate Selection horses ("hi-lite" plays as you put it) in the selections thread for one month. I'll post it for both win and place. I'll post for Aqueduct, Gulfstream/Calder, Santa Anita/Hollywood, Bay Meadows, Hawthorne, and Laurel/Pimlico. That's six track circuits for the whole month of April, posted the night before each day's races. If there's any dispute, I can post the screen capture for a given track so there's no question that I'm posting what the program tells me. That will cover about 120 racecards and well over 1,000 races, which should be a decent workout for the program.

You'll get $125 out of the deal, and if your program is as good as you say it is, you'll get a lot of business out of it.

Do I have your permission to do this?

So if we're understanding you correctly, you're want to give the guy $125 for his software, and put his same picks on the Forum, in advance of the races, for free, that everyone else who has already already paid him $125 for the program, or might have paid him for it. And your actually hoping for his permission, that he won't anger any of those customers, as well as toss away an entire month's worth of revenue, and also lower the payoffs on those horses as everyone and their brother bets those horses, likely rendering them unprofitable anyway? And then judge him on the profitablity. Do you still see nothing wrong with this picture?

:lol: :rolleyes:

[RERACING]

Just went to web site and the price for program was $795.00 with a $300.00 discount for total of $495.00. Where is the $125.00 program and what is the differance in programs?

[midnight]

Steve: yes, I see where somebody could think there's a conflict, and that's why I asked for permission instead of doing it without bothering to ask.

As far as losing a month's worth of revenue, I would imagine that he'd make up for that in markedly increased program sales if his program showed the profit he claims that it does, say an ROI of 1.15, or a 15% profit. If the program is good as advertised, he's getting free advertising. The problem, from his point of view, is if the program doesn't work----say it nets an ROI of 0.85, a 15% loss. If it's exposed as being junk, he'll lose potential sales, and worse yet: it will be documented (at least for the test period), so it will be difficult to put new spins on it.

Do you honestly believet that the posted selections are going to draw enough money to influence the odds significantly? I see CJ's program being hailed as being wonderful, rightfully so. But his top figure horses can still get off at decent odds. Steve Wolsom posted profitable selections for a long time here. I didn't read any comments about how they were getting hammered at the windows.

[headhawg]

Wow, I thought March Madness meant something else. Anyway....

I was a definite nOOb to computer handicapping software, and I was burned way too often before I found this site. So here is a rule about buying software that will help newbies or experienced 'cappers moving into the computer age: if a program vendor does not give a 15 day (or more) FREE trial, don't buy it!! That is, no money up front whatsoever, and not some restricted version of the software -- the real thing.

Unless someone you know personally can recommend the software, or there is some positive general consensus that is held on a board such as this, you are wasting your money unless you can give it a decent tryout. And if the vendor gives good support during that time so much the better. (If he or she doesn't, what do you think you're going to get after the purchase?)

As far as I remember from previous posts here, all of the strongly recommended software had a demo version. And while 15-30 days is probably not enough to learn how to use any program to the best of its (and your) ability, it sure beats the "buy-and-prayitworks" method.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Steve: yes, I see where somebody could think there's a conflict, and that's why I asked for permission instead of doing it without bothering to ask.

As far as losing a month's worth of revenue, I would imagine that he'd make up for that in markedly increased program sales if his program showed the profit he claims that it does, say an ROI of 1.15, or a 15% profit. If the program is good as advertised, he's getting free advertising. The problem, from his point of view, is if the program doesn't work----say it nets an ROI of 0.85, a 15% loss. If it's exposed as being junk, he'll lose potential sales, and worse yet: it will be documented (at least for the test period), so it will be difficult to put new spins on it.

Do you honestly believet that the posted selections are going to draw enough money to influence the odds significantly? I see CJ's program being hailed as being wonderful, rightfully so. But his top figure horses can still get off at decent odds. Steve Wolsom posted profitable selections for a long time here. I didn't read any comments about how they were getting hammered at the windows.

Significant change in handle, no. Anger his customers, yes. Generate new business for later? Maybe, but even 1 month may not prove anything, and the risk to him would be quite significant. Does the software really return a positive ROI? I'm still skeptical of automated software selection methods, no offense to any and all who do it. Chances of his permission? I'd be shocked it he, or anyone would give it. Sorry.

[Suff]

Holy shit man. This from the same guy that just wrote that thread bashing software sellers in the Barry Meadow thread? :lol:

The people I talked about in the other thread were the people who came onto the thread after I posted


Handicapping Smarts have a better ROI off track than on track.

I don't see the thread that you say I bash software sellers? I do see a thread where I intimate that people were insisting they make a profit/living at races..... were all to eager to engage me and others... but not quite as eager to engage Mr Meadows here.

Regarding Console... I don't know the man. I have no idea what he does, how well he does...nor More importantly... what claims he makes.

Therefore I don't see a huge contradiction , or at least one worthy of you diverting attetion from the thread Topic to my anaylsis of it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Because I know you, I was reading more into your post than most would. Maybe you weren't bashing software sellers specifically, just sellers in general, who "claim to know winners or be winners, just so they can sell more product."

Wasn't this what you were saying in the other thread?

[Suff]

Because I know you, I was reading more into your post than most would. Maybe you weren't bashing software sellers specifically, just sellers in general, who "claim to know winners or be winners, just so they can sell more product."

Wasn't this what you were saying in the other thread?

one point yes... but my main point was, that I felt guys were getting on me because I made the point in another thread that the vast majority of horseplayers lose consistently.. and the motives to convince them otherwise are not always pure. But more to the point. Barry Meadows is no slouch and he makes the case that winning players are for the most part.. The LOCH NESS MONSTER.... no proof he exists....but plenty who proport to have seen him.

Dick Schmidt aside...and the "hot" players aside..and the "coffee money" winners aside... it is a tough thing... and I made the case that it was a tough thing even when I had 11 consecutive winning months, that I documented here in 2003. 2004 has been a nightmare for me, for many different reasons.. I have not had one winning month. And when you get used to winning as I did in 2001, 02 and 03, it is even more painful.

[midnight]

I also had problems in 2004 over the previous five years. I still made some money, but I cut back my plays by half and probably made 10% of what I did in any of the previous six years. I played less horses and more online poker instead. A lot of guys I know who were doing just fine for years also reported making less money or losing in 2004. Most figure it's the drug situation that caused it, and in light of the recent state and track drug crackdowns (and proposed crackdowns), I would have to agree that's probably a big piece of it. If a horse is juiced you can bet the trainer is getting down on it, and that means that if you picked it, the 5-1 you were expecting goes down to 7-2. Your $12.00 turns into $9.00, and that's a 25% loss in ROI. If a juiced horse wins and you picked something else, it beats you. 2004 was rough, but hopefully the states and tracks will get the drugs under control in the near future. Not that this will stop all the cheating, but it's a step in the right direction.