Bad/good last race.....

[grahors]

Good morning,
Many authors advocate looking at the last race no matter how bad it looks.
Some say it could be a great source of huge mutuals. What are we looking for here? Competitive internal fractions? (you know, even race but beaten by 10L across the line). Competitive pace figs when beaten lengths are added back in? Competitive pace figs when BL are not added in? Good speed fig but bad looking race?
I personally try to limit a race to rate at beaten by no more than 5L ala Pizolla. I dunno. Looking for input.
Grahors.

[sidvicious]

do you mean lookin ONLY at the last race?

i use the last race unless there is great evidence that the race was an anomoly of some sort. in other words that race has to be terrible, and the trip indicator should say something like stumbled start, pulled back.

[grahors]

If the pace and speed figs were ok in the last BAD race, I would for sure look further into the PP's for some good signs. I do get your point.
Let's use maidens as an example. Horses with BAD "looking" races do win at high payoffs. What would you look for in the bad races? A move, even race,
best adjusted pace figs....for sure I would think a "trouble" comment. Good early or late moves in maidens are niffty but how can you adjust the pace fig?
With BRIS numbers, I try to add 2*BL to get an idea of what the horse could have done....can be dangerous. I also think some betting action in the last race may be an indicator.
Grahors

[grahors]

I know this all boils down to paceline selection of which there are many threads. I guess I am curious about a bad looking last line when there is not much to go on. Another question....bad last but good figs..other lines in the PP's look good but the figs aren't up to the last line's figs???
Perplexing!

[Lasix1]

I know this all boils down to paceline selection of which there are many threads. I guess I am curious about a bad looking last line when there is not much to go on. Another question....bad last but good figs..other lines in the PP's look good but the figs aren't up to the last line's figs???
Perplexing!
There are indeed a lot of things that get mixed up with such a beguilingly simple question, grahors, so it is preplexing. Trainers are moving horses up and down the class ladder so much that this has to be factored in. Know your trainer.

Take the first race at Oaklawn yesterday, a 15,000 open claiming event for NW3L. In his last race, the winner, Beanie's Bad Boy, ran a dismal BRIS speed fig of 37 (par for this race was 87) in a 10,000 state bred claiming race---by far the worst last race in the field. So he's moving up in class off a terrible performance. He never lifted a foot last time out and his running line looked like this: 9-16, 9-17, 9-29, 9-29. His trouble line said simply "trailed." His race before that wasn't much better.

But Beanie was trained by the leading trainer at OP, Cole Norman, so he went off at 6-1. (Oaklawn fans would make a donkey the even-money favorite if Norman was training him---and he'd probably win!) He drew off in the upper stetch to win easily by several lengths. Had it been any other trainer, a horse with this running line, hopelessly beaten by 29 lengths, and never making a move in the race, would have gone off at 20-1 or more. I've seen Norman do this with horses time and again. Had Beanie been trained by anyone else on the grounds, he would have been and automatic toss-out. So, here's the questions:

Who is the trainer?
Does he win off this move? (Some trainers do this all the time; others don't.)
Where is the horse in his form cycle?
At what class is the horse entered?
What were his odds?
How old is the horse? (Maidens and younger horses seem to me to be more able to overcome a bad race than older horses--especially maidens. In my example, though, Beanie's Bad Boy was 5.)
What does the rest of the field look like?

I think these questions are more important than whether or not the horse made a move in his last race.

Your question is just one reason why this is such a hard game.
Hope this helps....

[so.cal.fan]

One of the best handicappers I know in So. Cal. rarely IF EVER considers a horse with a poor last race.
His thinking is, there is most likely something wrong with the horse at the present time. Of course, if the horse has been off for sometime, it has to be considered IF it is not taking a negative drop and is in a logical spot.
I pretty much go along with his logic.
With the exception of second time starters........his rule holds up pretty well here at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar meet.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Nothing was said about Only using last race.
Lots of Northern Ca. false favorites had good last races because they are often overbet; I look for gate problems as overworked and they have to have maintained the same workout as racing spacing as their usual pattern or I suspect leg problems.
Running even is great regardless of how far back if an outside post. I like a slow starter gaining between 1st and 2nd call.
Any kind of a gain or good pace numbers on a slow track (large variant).
I like to throw out last races if the horse has a good ITM % or there is a significant trainer adjustment like a small price drop, equiptment change, or surface switch.

[Tom]

I look at the last race to see what it suggests about the horse's placement today. Should he be in this races based what he did last time and where he did it.

When I pick pacelines to rate the horse, I will go to its best races at similar condtions (distance, surface) because that is how he runs when he wins.
(Tom Ainlsee - Complete Handicapper)

[chickenhead]

I agree with what everyone has said...I'm willing to give any horse a break if it threw up a clunker or two to get started, if the connects are good...if the connects are bad, then yeah I want to see something from the horse, a move early preferably, or a change that plays to what the horses strength might be, something. If there was an extreme pace setup in it's bad line, then it might not have been a clunker at all, just didn't set up for the horse. With lightly raced horses you're kind of guessing at their style, but if there is a different pace set-up today I might want to take a chance.

[so.cal.fan]

Don't you guys think that handicappers tend to give the benefit of doubt too often?
Most times when a horse runs bad there is a reason, and it's rarely good.

[grahors]

Hambleton in Pace Makes the Race....always calculate the total pace rating on the last line....a "hidden" good performance might be determined. (not a quote). I assume this might be after adjustments for beaten lengths. Might be pretty brave if beaten by 15 across the line and the adjustments bring the horse into range of todays pace. What would be a "hidden" good race? Of course, at some tracks during the week in cheap races, this may be the only thing to look at.
Grahors

[sidvicious]

what lasix1 describes, moving up in class after a bad performance, is THE classic move of a betting stable.

that horse has been sent to win.