Trip Handicapping Suggestions

[Sundown]

I've seen mentioned on several threads trip handicapping. Can someone point me in the diretion for (good) material on this, or give personal insight.

[Overlay]

I'm not into trip handicapping myself, but Andy Beyer once wrote a book on that subject (and with that title) that I recall as a good general introduction at the time. (I'm sure other posters on the board would have access to more recent and in-depth information, particularly from a statistical standpoint, on the various aspects of trips.)

[46zilzal]

Lawlor publications had a good videotape showing how to spot each type of trip problems

[zerosky]

Turfpedia contains an excellent primer on Trip Handicapping

http://turfpedia.com/methods/trip/

The originators of it started way back before video replays and the like
Marking the way the race unfolded with pencils and paper.
My hats off to these guys. It must have been an excellent edge in its time.

[Doc]

I consider myself a trip handicapper. Yes, I look at splits, final times, Beyer numbers, track condition, etc. but most importantly I watch for the things that don't always make the Equibase chart. I also keep my ears open on the backstretch and in the grandstand to discover why a horse didn't run well in its last start. Case in point: On Tuesday, a horse called Pure Jaz was running at Philly. In its maiden race it seemed to finish an indifferent fifth. The trainer said the saddle slipped during the running of the race...not mentioned in the past performance line. Result: A $6.60 payoff in its second race. Also, I watch for horses that get a lot of early action on the tote. So I guess I'm not a pure trip handicapper...maybe an "event" handicapper is a better term.

[Valuist]

The Winning Horseplayer was Beyer's book that detailed trip handicapping. IMO, its his best book. He also devotes a full chapter to wagering strategy.

[e_r]

I trip-handicapped in the '80's, then gave the game up. If I make a comeback it will be as a trip handicapper again.
I was lucky enough to meet up with some people at the track, who pointed me in the right direction, so to speak. (One of whom, quite ironically, is now very much involved with Beyer speed figs.) Not a question of uncovering hidden truths about the method but more along the lines of expediting the process.
The only way to really learn how to trip handicap is to watch alot of races (each race over and over and over......). Of course, this would mean that playing more than one track would be very time consuming.

What's become apparent, in the short time I've been following this board, is that pace handicapping, in some sense, is a quantification of 'trips'.

[Vegas711]

When it comes to trip handicapping I have had great success by just focusing on the start of the race. I know that there is much more to gain by looking at the entire race but by looking for horses who break bad when they normally don't I find a number of good future bets without spending a lot of time.

My personal favorite is a horse who misses the break and is rushed up to catch the leaders against a fast opening Quarter like for ex. a 22.4 at Pim at 6f if this horse spots the leaders 4 lenghts at the start and he makes up the loss ground by the time they reach the opening quarter this is a superstar first quarter.
I don't care if the horse losses by 20 lenghts he makes my horses to watch list.:ThmbUp:

[Overlay]

"The Winning Horseplayer was Beyer's book that detailed trip handicapping. IMO, its his best book. He also devotes a full chapter to wagering strategy."

Thanks to Valuist for refreshing my recollection on the Beyer title. And thanks also to zerosky for the Turfpedia link. (I'll be giving trips another long look.)

[Tom]

Steve Davidowitz's book had a good chapter on trips.

[GMB@BP]

I am glad I saw this thread as its been an important piece of the handicapping puzzle I have been playing with the past month.

I talked with a very good player, one who frequents this message board and his advice was to "become a good trip handicapper" if I wanted to be better then most at the game. Obviously this means you are some what limited to one circuit as trip handicapping can be time consuming.

I have been doing this for about a month and the following are some of my observations and questions.

It is very easy to discount winners trips should they be perfect, and its somewhat easy to note a horse ran very well given a wide trip or disadvantaged post or pace. What is difficult is how much notation should be given to the trips(paths, breaks, turns) and who should even be notated. I read through the Turfpedia article and its informative, but some real life examples would really help, along with the actual video.

The second part of the difficulty is identifying the bias of the track. You hear so many people say "speed bias" when in reality there is none. When else do you hear any other type of bias? Hardly ever which tells me that most people suck at identifying bias, myself included. It has to be one of the most important parts of the game and one that has the least amount of information on how to make these indentifications.

[the little guy]

Trip handicapping is the most essential part of successful horseplaying and the hardest to master. It is also something that basically can't be taught, but has to learned, and that can only be done by watching thousands of races ( over and over again ), and then you still have to have an aptitude for it. Most horseplayers overemphasize the " trip " their horses get while also placing too much weight on percieved trouble.

The first thing a player has to do is teach himself to watch races. This can only be done by taking extensive notes on every race, which requires repeated viewings of both the pan shot and the head on, as each horse must be monitored. Much of this is makework, and ultimately useless for future playing, but the gains are multitudinous. First of all, you will be able to surely identify biases, as you will be able to determine if certain " paths ", specifically the rail, were helpful or harmful. Rather than placing your opinion with the uninformed herd, you will in fact know if the rail was paticularly good or bad on a given day. But, the main gain from this endeavor will be to teach yourself to watch races effectively. Hopefully you will learn to understand the kinds of trips that can either positively or negatively affect certain horses' performances, and also learn tendencies of different animals.

The novice trip handicapper will be overconcerned with " wides ", but ultimately you should learn when losing ground is relatively unimportant and when it isn't. Also, you can hopefully teach yourself to understand the flow of races, and subsequently which horses may have been aided or harmed by the makeup of given races. All of this is very subtle, and can only be learned through massive amounts of race watching, but the rewards can be enormous. But, probably the most important thing to remember is to be completely unbiased, as mistaken interpretations will pervert the entire effort. And it is also important to understand that not every race will provide much information, as many are fairly run, and not to look for trouble that simply didn't exist.

Becoming a successful trip handicapper will compliment your handicapping skills, as it will both lower some performances, while elevating the performances of other horses. And, ultimately, this will help you uncover darkened horses, which are really the kind of horses that a horseplayer can make serious money with.

[GMB@BP]

Thanks for the detailed response. It makes perfect sense and is my goal. Its just very difficult to do. I talked to race replays and they are going to offer the head on and pan shots in the coming year (supposedly).

[Maxspa]

Sundown,
I met Jerry Wayne several years ago at a Michael Pizzola Las Vegas seminar. He was involved in trip handicapping. A couple of years ago he wrote a book "The Art and Science of Trip Handicapping." I have not read it nor have I seen any reviews of his book. You can get additional information on www.itsdata.com-menu books.
Maxspa

[Tom]

Mark Hopkins, Andy Beyer's partner, is one who can relate trips to Beyers very effectively. He gave two seminars at FL where he borke down the PPs in terms of these two factors. At FL, when it is wet/damp, inside is the palce to be. He gave out back to back 7-1 shots to start one day, and followed up with severral others, all logically selected when you seperated the wheat form the chaff based on trips.

If anyone is to write a book on handicapping, I sure hope it this guy - he is truly a player and I would love to hear more from him.

[chickenhead]

What is the best method for getting replays? I have never been happy with the quality of the online replay services.

[Sundown]

Maxspa,

Thanks for the info. The link you posted appears to be broken, any other link?
A lot of good info, thanks everyone for your responses.
Sundown

[Maxspa]

Sundown,
Sorry about the mis-communication regarding the link.
The correct link is: www.itsdata.com on the opening screen you will see a menu and click on books. The information will be found there.
Maxspa