Aptitude and the Racetrack Surface

[Blenheim]

THE numbers on 3/19 proved to be interesting. Some significantly different times and pace parameters but relatively equal Performance Figures. I witnessed it this winter at Calder. Horse A had a faster finishing time than horse B, but a lower PF. As there could be no other result, horse B won the race.

Perpelxing then but easier to understand now knowing performance is subject to myriad conditions, a major one being the condition of the racetrack surface. With 43 days remaining before the run for the Roses and with the uncertainty surrounding Afleet Alex, this one, as it was in the beginning, is up for grabs. Calling it a tough game ... is an understatement. I'm sticking with Afleet Alex.

Now should this crop come to the Derby with relatively equal Performance Figures it may well come down to the horse best suited for the racetrack surface at Churchill Downs. Best I can tell it is Sun King.

Performance Figures and Pace Parameters can be found at chef-de-race.com/

[46zilzal]

watching the Oaks the Friday before can give you an outstanding view of the course which they TRY to "soup up" all the time for the big dance.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I need to lessons from you guys! I was all wrong!
Exactly what is the track condition going to be Derby day? It changed during the day last year.
46- what factors made you conclude the track was "souped up" for derby day in 2004?

[46zilzal]

t changed during the day last year.
46- what factors made you conclude the track was "souped up" for derby day in 2004?
Not any one year; It rained last year and that altered things for sure. IN GENERAL, more front end types hang around longer than they should

[kenwoodallpromos]

Well. I looked over final times over the years and I do not see any extremely slow times. Looks like the 1960's were about the absolute lowest times.

[46zilzal]

woof, that race is over LONG before the final time


That time (final) is the SURVIVOR's TIME, except on a few occasions that are not be be thrown in with the rest: Red's for example.

[46zilzal]

race is unique year to year based upon the interactions of the animals that year...TRACK, as usual, is secondary if not tertiarty to that outcome.

Can you imagine a NASCAR driver thinking that the pavement altered his chances? How about a diver thinking that the water in Korea is altered to fit the Korean divers and it is "unfair" to us from the West. "My surfborad just doesn't hadnle thee BIASED waves here in Australia and I have to go back to Hawaii"....sounds silly doesn't it. NO DIFFERENT, just in another context.

[Pace Cap'n]

Can you imagine a NASCAR driver thinking that the pavement altered his chances? context.

Might ask Jeff Gordon about last year in Martinsville......

[46zilzal]

BAD example since I think watching my cat lick his behind is INFINITLEY MORE INTERESTING that watching several clowns fly around an oval in LOUD automobiles.