Throw Another Hat into the Crowded Derby Ring?

[Observer]

Well, just a few weeks ago it appeared as if Derby regulars Lukas and Baffert would be watching the Derby like the rest of us, instead of competing in it like they have so many times before over the past number of years.

But, then The Thoroughbred Corp purchased War Emblem and quickly put him into the Derby mix while handing him over to Baffert.

Two weeks ago, some thought Lukas was asking too much of Proud Citizen when he was sent for his first route try, coming off an extended layoff to run in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. Sent off at 39-1, the Gone West colt obviously needed the race as expected.

However, today, the Lukas trainee took a step in the right direction by winning the Lexington in nice fashion. Off a step slow, he took command on the first turn, and established an honest tempo. When confronted on the turn for home, he had every right to wither and collapse, but instead, he kept on digging to the wire, and finished visually strong while pulling away at the end.

Granted, he's still light on routing experience, and this was going 1 1/16 miles, but he did get the job done today, while still seemingly being ambitiously placed. Regardless, he is now a G2 winner for a trainer who repeatedly shows he can get his horses ready, and consistently proves he can swing high and manage to connect for a home run.

As an aside, wouldn't it be a patriotic fit if Proud Citizen were to win the Kentucky Derby?? :D

[cj]

I wish I could share your enthusiasm for Proud Citizen, but winning wire to wire on the Kee rail doesn't prove much to me, and if he runs he will be way up the track in two weeks IMHO. I never said the horse was not talented, I was just hoping he wasn't rushing the horse just to get him in the Derby. Unfortunately for the horse, he probably will be entered now, and will run 27.5 furlongs in only 29 days off a lengthy layoff. I'll still hold out hope he will await the Preakness.

CJ

[Observer]

I should have attached a disclaimer to my above post stating that I was not proclaiming Proud Citizen as the Derby winner. Basically, my points were simply that it now looks as if Lukas has a Derby horse and how once again, seemingly overmatched, the Lukas runner gets the job done at a nice price of $18.60.

As for Proud Citizen's race, it will be discredited because of the way he ran and the notoriety of how the Keeneland track plays. But, taking the performance of this race alone, without looking to the future, I like the way he obviously improved off the Santa Anita Derby, and I like the way he looked finishing the race, this race. What I liked most, was how he shook off the serous challenge taken at him on the turn for home, even if it was a 38-1 shot. Bottom line, he could have called it quits and didn't. Instead, he kept reaching and finding more all the way to the wire. Oh, and did I mention, what a smart ride from Mike Smith?

Proud Citizen was highly regarded from the start of his career, and I think today he showed a glimmer of promise. As for my enthusiasm, I simply enjoy this game and appreciate nice efforts, no matter who they're from, how they're accomplished or the "history" of the track.

[Tom]

Thanks for posting the results of the Lexington....I read it just three minutes before the race went off on TV!
Arrgggg!

~G~

[Observer]

Sorry about that. Didn't realize there was such a delay in the coverage of the race by ESPN2. Guess I let my enthusiasm take over! ;)

[ranchwest]

Can anyone share which horses (in recent years) have:

a) Won the Lexington and the KD
b) Come out of the Lexington to win the KD

I have it fixed in my head that 1 1/16 doesn't prepare a horse for the Derby, but I'd like to know if that is a statistically sound premise.

[Observer]

Lukas took a similar path with Charismatic in 1999. While Charismatic didn't have the layoff that Proud Citizen had, he did go from running fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, to winning the Lexington in stakes record time, to winning the Derby and Preakness.

Derby winners take different paths each year, or group of years. The past two years, they have come out of the Wood Memorial. Maybe this year it's going to change. I don't really believe it's useful to generalize a particular race, because in this game, anything can happen, especially in a year like this.

[Boris]

The one thing Proud Citizen & connections can rejoice about, besides the purse, is that it didn't take much to win this race. Fairly easy trip as EM did not take to the track. When AS came at him, there was plenty left as the pace was slow. Then Meche introduces himself to Bailey in the stretch taking both horses out of contention for the win. PC has earned his way into the Derby gate and will cause some to scratch their heads not wanting Lukas to fubar their exotics. I'm just glad the winning horse is going to the Derby. More confusion.

[andicap]

Thing about Charismatic was if you typed his last line into most software programs he came out on top -- witness the proliferation of programs that tout that they had Charismatic based on the Lexington.
Most handicappers dismissed the race because of the distance and short time between the race and the Derby, plus he was not a "publicity" horse.
Let's see how Proud Citizen's Lexington line stacks up to the other horses before we decide his probabilities.
I agree that a Lukas horse IN FORM is always dangerous.

[Tom]

I was very impressed with his last sixteenth of a mile- he appeared to find new energy and surge away late. Maybe it was just an illusion, but he sure looked fit coming to the wire. And this is the time of year to be peaking.

[tanda]

Ethan Man did not take to the track?

That is the propaganda his connections are putting out.

I love when a favorite blows, the excuses come out of the woodwork.

Now, if the truth was than Ethan Man was overrated, could not get the distance, was poorly trained or spotted or it just wasn't his day, would we expect to hear that from the trainer?

No. instead we get the standard excuses.

[cj]

Tanda,

I couldn't agree more. The truth is, the connections had Derby illusions, so they tried to rate a speedy sprinter, who then had nothing for the stretch drive.

CJ

[andicap]

Any Beyer figs or Ragozin numbers yet on Proud Citizen? I read somewhere that he won on a golden rail.

[Observer]

I have to agree with Tom. You could see as Proud Citizen past the 1/8th pole that he was beginning to draw away, but it was the final 1/16th that he really opened up and went on with it. I knew immediately, though, that people would take credit away from Proud Citizen because he ended up going wire to wire over that track.

But, if you look back at the run into the first turn, which horse wanted the lead? Mike Smith committed when noone else did, then smartly got the horse to a sensible half. Proud Citizen may have had the lead and the "golden" rail, but it's not like he was out there on a big lead at a crawl. He had horses right in behind him.

If that small margin between him and the handful of persuers made all the difference, well then Smith deserves even more credit, and the other riders made the blunder for not sensing what was going on, especially if the track was playing above and beyond it's own bias.

American Style had his chance to run by, or stick with Proud Citizen[b] in the stretch, and wasn't even close at the wire, and neither were any of the others who tracked closely. [b]Crimson Hero, who finished second, was last in the early stages of this race, and even though he was up for second, there was no catching Proud Citizen the way he kicked home late.

Maybe Ethan Man didn't handle the track. But maybe he didn't handle going two turns. He failed to get good position into the first turn, and got hung out to dry. Maybe he just got discouraged and quit trying?

I don't like how people are very selective of who they give credit to for winning races, and how what those people expect from the horse in the Derby directly effects what they just did in their prep. Sorry, but the effort today should stand alone.

It's amazing how difficult it is for some people to just give credit where credit is due. If Proud Citizen did ride a "golden rail" to his completely authoritative score, fine. But how about the dramatic improvement off his Santa Anita Derby? How about Smith's brilliant ride? How about Lukas having this horse ready for the race he was pointing for? How about that Proud Citizen overcame a slow start, and Smith didn't panic, but let him go along on his own then seized the opportunity to take command?

There are a lot of factors involved for which the Proud Citizen camp deserves credit, no matter what anyone thinks of his chances for wherever he's going next. And if it weren't a start in the Derby, the Lexington wouldn't be getting scrutinized the way it is.

THE "GOLDEN RAIL"
I didn't see any other races from Keeneland Saturday, but looking at the charts, I see several things .. in dirt routes, there were horses that won from off the pace (Boom Boom Cha Cha-2nd, Capricha-3rd), and there are horses up close early, according to the charts, that didn't ride the rail (Homem Ra-4th "2-3 wide," Panner-5th "3-4 wide.") Races 6,7,9 were on turf, while race 1 was a sprint. The Lexington went as race 8, and Homem Ra was the only other front-running winner on the card with Proud Citizen, who appears to have been the only winner to ride the "golden rail." What were all those other riders thinking?! :D

[cj]

Originally posted by andicap
Any Beyer figs or Ragozin numbers yet on Proud Citizen? I read somewhere that he won on a golden rail.

His Beyer is a 95, about the same as Came Home. According to my figures, he ran a 97 in the SA Derby, and a 96 in the Lexington. Don't really see the improvement, just a weaker field.

CJ

[rrbauer]

There was no golden rail at KEE on Saturday. The track kept changing as it dried out.

PROUD CITIZEN got an easy trip (tight qtrs CH turn), ran a nice race, but beat nothing. Hand out all of the credos you want (owner, trainer, jockey, groom) and you still have a horse that will need to move forward big time to contend in the Derby.

[smf]

Seems to me that the annual rail paradise was evident the first week and disappeared thereafter. I've seen some nice early speed types that died on that rail lately that in years past w/h won.

[andicap]

You guys are right again. I stand corrected.

:o

[Observer]

Originally posted by rrbauer
PROUD CITIZEN got an easy trip (tight qtrs CH turn), ran a nice race, but beat nothing.

With each passing prep race, all I keep hearing is how everyone is beating nothing. Just who counts as somebody in this group of 3-year-olds?? If all the prominent horses are taking seperate paths, who could anyone beat that would be considered someone.??

Do we really know at this point who anybody is, and who nobody is? This group has in no way distinguished themselves, and very few prep races have had fields deep with this year's best horses. As is often the case, there is typically only a few that look like major players, with others hoping to outrun expectations in each given race.

Going into the Lexington, Proud Citizen was in no way a standout, and some would even consider him to have been an underlay, so why should his performance be downgraded because he seemingly beat nothing?? If he looked like nothing going in, doesn't it now mean something??

I stand by what I've already said. On an individual performance, meaning just this race, Proud Citizen ran a nice one. He took advantage of how the race was developing, he showed he could settle, he shrugged off a serious threat, and he finished visually strong.

On to the next one, and let that tell it's own story.

[cj]

Originally posted by Observer

I stand by what I've already said. On an individual performance, meaning just this race, Proud Citizen ran a nice one. He took advantage of how the race was developing, he showed he could settle, he shrugged off a serious threat, and he finished visually strong.

On to the next one, and let that tell it's own story.

Observer,

If we were writing a book, that would be great, but most here are trying to predict the future, not wait and see what happens.

CJ

[Observer]

I hear ya, cj .... but with the way this group of 3yos are coming along, I really don't think we've seen anything from anyone that stamps a true, clear-cut leader(s) going into the Derby. Everyone has their weaknesses, and I can't see anyone who deserves to be backed with the utmost confidence going into the Derby. This is going to be the type of year that needs to shake out before we start proclaiming anyone as someone. That's my prediction.

[cj]

Observer,

Couldn't agree more. The races this year should be wide open and provide some nice overlays. This does not mean the underlays can't win, but I'll take my chances.

CJ

[Vinnie]

CJ, Observer

Just for the reason that CJ stated, I look very forward to this years Derby! I think that virtually anyone could step out of this years bunch of three year olds and with a decent performance might be able to bring it on home.

With such a potentially humongous field size there is bound to be some decent money floating in and around the eventual winner, whomever that may be? It is going to be interesting to see how the final field pans out with many of the probable starters seemingly dropping out at the last second for many varying reasons.

In any event, it should be a Fun Race to watch on the 4th!

[cj]

I'll be watching on the 5th, I'm 7 hours ahead of EDT...lol. Second year in a row I get to watch the Derby on my B-day!

CJ

[rrbauer]

From ObserverI stand by what I've already said. On an individual performance, meaning just this race, Proud Citizen ran a nice one. He took advantage of how the race was developing, he showed he could settle, he shrugged off a serious threat, and he finished visually strong.
Comment:
I don't think anyone disagreed with what you said. You took what I said and then said again what you said before...but, you left out the most important part of what I said and that was that PROUD CITIZEN would have to move forward to compete in the Derby.

As far as him beating nothing. Your point about the apparent power in this year's derby being dispersed is accurate-IMHO. My comment was based on the fact that none of the horses that finished behind PROUD CITIZEN are going to the Derby; indeed none of the horses that finished behind PROUD CITIZEN in the S.A. Derby are going to the Derby.

[Observer]

rrbauer,

I didn't mention what I thought Proud Citizen would need to do to compete in the Derby because I was simply looking at this race without applying it to the future. First of all, his connections have not officially committed to the race, everyone is simply speculating that they're going, and they have not denied it.

You said he would need to move forward "big time," and that I simply do not agree with. From what I've seen of this group of 3yos, if Proud Citizen could settle into a nice, forwardly placed trip, he could certainly contend for a share of some kind, if he can handle the distance. But really, no one else inspires confidence that they can get the distance anyway. At least Essence of Dubai beat home a field going the distance, whether that translates into him being able to go the trip at Churchill is a whole other story.

If Proud Citizen were trained by anyone else, I would be a little more willing to toss him, however, watching Lukas over all these years, I have learned not to underestimate his runners, ever. If this were a more solid group of 3yos, and Proud Citizen was still coming along the same path, I might be a little more willing to toss him .. but it's just not that kind of year.

[cj]

Observer,

So far, Proud Citizen has only demonstrated an ability to win on the lead. He does not match up well pace figure wise with War Emblem, Megla..., Buddha, Booklet (if he runs), and Came Home, that I can think of off the top of my head. Frontrunners with inferior pace figures are bad bets, that is why I discount his chances in the Derby. It may be possible he could rate, but I doubt Derby day would be time to experiment.

CJ

[superfecta]

Doin some rough fig on the winners of the preps and it does look like an average bunch.But it kinda looks like Buddha can run early and late,so if he not peaked,he can win the thing.Now a softer pace favors Proud Citizen,but it also helps Personal Emblem.I can see one of these guys winning the Derby, for what thats worth.I can also see an ITM horse getting to the wire first,but I need to see more info on them first,to compare to each other,so that may be next week when the early derby pps. come out.I don't get too worked up till Derby week anyhow.

[Observer]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
So far, Proud Citizen has only demonstrated an ability to win on the lead. ... It may be possible he could rate, but I doubt Derby day would be time to experiment.

I know what you mean cj, but let's not forget Proud Citizen has only had two route experiences, both coming this year ... in the Santa Anita Derby, and the Lexington. He's only won twice in his career ... The Lexington and a sprint second time out. So, while he won both those races on the front end, I wouldn't be too quick to label him a front-runner. There could very well be a chance he could settle into a nice trip in the right opportunity. He was obviously short when returned in the Santa Anita Derby, which turned out to be a back-up plan since an allowance race didn't fill for him, and in the Lexington, he ended up on the lead by default as no one else was going for it.