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View Full Version : Racing dying? Look at the handles stupid.


fishorsechess
03-22-2005, 07:01 PM
Lots of people think racing is dying because there aren't enough
young people taking up the sport. And attendance down.
But go figure. Attendance is down because of internet/phone
wagering. And if racing is dying why are the handles still up?

sjk
03-22-2005, 07:21 PM
Some of us are betting 7000 races a year. How many people were doing that 15 years ago?

PaceAdvantage
03-22-2005, 07:26 PM
Eventually though, something is going to give. The graph I posted recently looks to be peaking.....

Suff
03-22-2005, 07:28 PM
Some of us are betting 7000 races a year. How many people were doing that 15 years ago?

Very good point.

Observer
03-22-2005, 07:30 PM
The game gets knocked for "young people" not being at the track .. but aren't they most likely to be the ones wagering online .. aren't they most likely to be working during the week .. or in school, etc.

And just what age exactly counts as "young" ????

Tom
03-22-2005, 08:02 PM
7,000 races! Wow!


I find that as years go by, I find less and less bets worth making. Even with all the track avaialbe to me, I rarely find more than a handful of races worth betting every week. Small fields, late odds drops, questionable trainers....
A couple of years ago, when I still actually went to a track., I would go 3-4 days in a row and never pull the trigger.
I would say now, for every 20 races I handicap, I play 2-3.

QuarterCrack
03-22-2005, 08:12 PM
For what it's worth, I see a fairly good amount of 20-somethings at the track when I go. I don't know if that's just because I tend to go on Saturday, or what. I'm 27 and go to the track as many times as I can, and I bet quite often online - maybe there are more who do most of their wagering online. Not sure. None of my friends are into racing.

Poker is so big right now - that also used to be thought of as an old man's game. Something changed; TV coverage, I guess, as well as online play. I would think more exposure and PR would help racing, but I don't know how much.

sjk
03-22-2005, 08:17 PM
Tom,

I let the computer do almost all the work.

It seems a shame but I am reluctant to go to the track because I can't play as many races while I am there and even if there is live racing going on its hard to sit where you can watch the races and still play a number of tracks. It doesn't seem appealing to drive back and forth and get less action (inevitably missing winners I would have caught at home).

Hard to reconcile today's game with 20 years ago when I lived in Lexington and the only opportunities were one track 6 weeks a year, 5 days a week, 8 races a day.

kenwoodallpromos
03-22-2005, 11:21 PM
Easter Sunday is kid's day at BM.

kingfin66
03-23-2005, 12:55 AM
7,000 races! Wow!


I find that as years go by, I find less and less bets worth making. Even with all the track avaialbe to me, I rarely find more than a handful of races worth betting every week. Small fields, late odds drops, questionable trainers....
A couple of years ago, when I still actually went to a track., I would go 3-4 days in a row and never pull the trigger.
I would say now, for every 20 races I handicap, I play 2-3.

I can't tell you how refreshing that is to hear. Based on these comments alone, I would surmise that you turn a profit at the game, or at least come very close. Successful gamblers have this type of discipline.

chickenhead
03-23-2005, 01:50 AM
there is still a stigma around gambling, but the stigma moves around...

poker is chic now, you can play texas hold 'em and people are interested...

the easy availability of Indian Casinos here in CA have made playing slots an acceptable form of weekly entertainment, so long as you don't get carried away and start playing the quarter slots (God Forbid), gotta stick with the nickels or better yet pennies....and don't even think about blackjack..

It's ok to be a horseplayer during the TC, that's nice and chic too -- the OTB swells with people. For the real chic the Breeders Cup is ok...but tell someone you just got back from the track any other time of year and they think you're a degenerate....

"Oh, was there a big race?"

"Nope"

they think you're a bum.

.....but the thing is, there is nothing much chic about the average day at the races..they've got that much right.

Macdiarmadillo
03-23-2005, 03:22 AM
Compared to the growth of other forms of gambling, racing is being left in the dust. Compared to what was bet like 50 years ago, adjusted for inflation, racing handle is indeed shrinking.

PaceAdvantage
03-23-2005, 04:39 AM
50 years ago, racing was one of the ONLY ways to get a bet down, legally or illegally, for most. There is so much more competition today -- lotteries, casinos in places other than Vegas and AC, internet casinos, online poker, sports betting, etc. etc.

kenwoodallpromos
03-23-2005, 07:15 PM
The Reno Sands just sent me n the wife coupons for 3 free nites each. I'm waiting for Magna and Pimlico the make me a deal on the infield. :D

hurrikane
03-24-2005, 02:41 PM
Trust me Ken, you don't want to fight the Pimilco infield.

Or the local neighborhood outfield either.

joeprunes
03-24-2005, 02:59 PM
Fish, what happens when the old people die, were are the young to take over??. Who the hell are you to call anyone stupid...jp

fishorsechess
03-24-2005, 04:29 PM
You cannot judge attendance anymore by looking at the
number of people in the grandstands. We live in the Internet
age and the only thing that counts now is the total handle.

Blenheim
03-25-2005, 12:20 AM
I rarely go to the track anymore simply because the horses rarely run true to form; can't trust em' (the trainers and connections). I told myself that if the top level horses don't run true to form, I've had enough. Came pretty close w/Afleet Alex in the Rebel.

I think most new comers have experience the same: a 23-1 comes in and the 3-1 they bet on finishes fourth. Simple ... can't trust em' so why waste your money.

Valuist
03-25-2005, 10:46 AM
As long as I can remember, all I've ever heard is that only old people go to the track and when they die off, they'll be nobody. Yet every time I go to an OTB, its crowded and I wait in long lines. Somebody is apparently replacing those dying off. Once one is hooked, they usually don't quit.

Buddha
03-25-2005, 11:05 AM
I rarely go to the track anymore simply because the horses rarely run true to form; can't trust em' (the trainers and connections). I told myself that if the top level horses don't run true to form, I've had enough. Came pretty close w/Afleet Alex in the Rebel.

I think most new comers have experience the same: a 23-1 comes in and the 3-1 they bet on finishes fourth. Simple ... can't trust em' so why waste your money.

Does it ever occur to you that horses arent machines, and dont always run to how their form looks? Sometimes they are a little sick, or maybe their shoe isnt on quite right. Maybe they have an infection somewhere. It happens.

With Afleet Alex in the Rebel, were you expecting a win? I know I wasn't. He has yet to win at 2 turns, he was trying two turns off of one sprint prep, and had just run a HUGE race 2 weeks prior. If anything, I would expect a letdown. 7/10 odds on him was a joke.

Also, just because a 23/1 wins doesnt mean he couldnt have won. So many times those kind of horses are peaking, and showing signs of it, and the betting public tend to overlook it as most of them are basing bets on speed figures, trainers, and last 1 or 2 races. How many times have you seen a horse bet to 3/1 just because of the trainer or jockey or both? Me, I have seen it many times. Look at Bailey/Mott or Pletcher/Velasquez. Have they ever been bet down to short odds, only to lose? Ever think that the odds are short because of the connections, and not what the horse has shown he can do?

Blenheim
03-25-2005, 01:45 PM
Buddah,


Seems you missed the point as you clearly did not address the human factor in your post. Or is it that you purposely overlooked it?

It's the human element that's killing the sport not the vicissitudes of the nature of the thoroughbred. W/respect to Afleet Alex, I'm no trainer but IMO there had to be some signs of the lung infection; he spiked a fever? Can't turn a blind eye to human factor ...

And I seriously doubt there are many handicappers making money at betting.

traynor
03-25-2005, 06:05 PM
sjk wrote <Some of us are betting 7000 races a year. How many people were doing that 15 years ago?>

Some of us have enough sense to spread what we do over a wide enough area that we don't shoot ourselves in the foot knocking down the odds on what we bet. That is especially important at smaller tracks; "ROIs" of 15-20% tend to disappear when bet. That is, the best records in the world, made only on paper, are almost irrelevant. It is the ROI with your bets in the pools that matter. sjk has that part down pat.

Thanks

sjk
03-25-2005, 06:20 PM
Traynor,

I'm sure I have plenty of room to improve in all areas but I appreciate the kind words.

I find a value play in most of the races I look at (not literally, the computer does it) and I hate to pass up a bet because if I do that will be the one out of nine that gets there.

joeprunes
03-26-2005, 08:33 AM
Valuist. Look I stated what I thought was happening in racing. At my otb there are not many young guys. The ones that got hooked are now broke. Just the old time cappers that are good survive. Racing has change alot over the years . Maybe with the computer generation racing will survive. Most of the guys here on this site are good cappers but its just a minority of the players in the country. Can the new players coming into this game survive to keep the trend going?....jp

linrom1
03-26-2005, 11:23 AM
This is a no brainer. Look, you have some of the world's best racing today in Dubai and as much excitement on this board as if it was a 3rd at Delta Downs. In fact, you'll probobly have some joker posting their picks for MNR and DD today and people pretend that racing is not a full decline.

JohnGalt1
03-26-2005, 12:05 PM
I don't think the same people that go to otb and and tracks on simulcasts days are the same as live racing people. Many tracks lure younger people and families with special days.

At Canterbury on Fridays it's mostly younger crowds. Every other Thursday they have youth boxing matches and every Thursday it's $1 admission, hot dogs and beer. Sunday is family day with free pony rides and a petting zoo.

I'm sure during live racing every track markets to younger betters.

During the winter it's the old degenerates and retired guys that make up most of the crowd.

kenwoodallpromos
04-08-2005, 05:44 AM
New Jockey Club stats for 2004 show overall USA handle down .5%.