OTM Al
03-21-2005, 12:49 PM
A big weekend, lots of action, and a clouded picture still (and I got pummled at the windows, but that's beside the point)
Gotham: Seen less action in a pinball machine than that stretch run. Looks like Galloping Grocer is going off the trail and back to sprinting. Probably the right move. He was a sentimental favorite for me, but time to face reality. Pavo is a one turn horse as well, which is why I had him on top of my tris, but prayers went unanswered. Survivalist made a sharp move to be sure, but Naughty New Yorker was the one who impressed me most with his stretch run. If he can show that he can race closer up to the pace, he's going to get a lot more credit from me. He simply will not be able to lay that far back and get through 19 horses. All the trouble in the stretch shows exactly what happens to deep closers and why they have so many problems winning.
Rebel: Wouldn't touch this one betting wise, even with someone elses money. Greater Good is going to get a lot of good press over this one as he should. He did what he was there to do, win. However, Tapit did the same last year in the Wood and I wasn't buying then and I'm not buying now. Rocky did ok, but nothing that made me feel better about him. His nagging injuries have created a huge hurdle for him. If that was the 65% fit Servis said he would be, ok, lots of upside, but he better look much stronger next time out. Alex gets a pass. If he was that sick and still moving that well, then he ran pretty darn good. Had enough of my own lung infections to know what they do to you.
Tampa Derby: Okay, I did bet a very small amount on this one...saddle could slip, he could stumble...happened in the others. 1-20 chalk bears a tiny bet against. Not much to get out of this one. Sun King was supposed to cream them, and he did. He looked bored. He also looked gorgeous. Beautiful animal to be sure. Like to see him knock heads with some stronger competition, but I guess that's next. Stock rising on this one. little guy may make me a believer yet.
San Felipe: Looked the best on paper and was as far as competitiveness goes, even with Consolidator pulling away at the end. Solid. He is on my radar now and bears some looking at. As good a race as this was, imagine what it would have been like if SA didn't have its March preps split in two with Going Wild and Declan's Moon in this group as well. Giacomo did a fair effort and is a good horse, but not top tier. Roman Ruler ended up exactly as I expected. Can't believe he was sent off as favorite. I know his ailment is a quarter crack, but anyone getting the idea that these FuPegs may be shooting stars? Brilliant when young, but fading fast.
So what's my thinking now:
Top Tier: 1. Afleet Alex, 2. Sun King (stock rising), 3. Rocky (but shakey now)
Second Tier: 1. Going Wild, 2. Consolidator, 3. High Fly, 4. Naughty NYer
Top o' the hype: 1. High Limit, 2. Bandini, 3. Giacomo
Wildcard: Sweet Catomine (bring on the boys!!!)
Gotham: Seen less action in a pinball machine than that stretch run. Looks like Galloping Grocer is going off the trail and back to sprinting. Probably the right move. He was a sentimental favorite for me, but time to face reality. Pavo is a one turn horse as well, which is why I had him on top of my tris, but prayers went unanswered. Survivalist made a sharp move to be sure, but Naughty New Yorker was the one who impressed me most with his stretch run. If he can show that he can race closer up to the pace, he's going to get a lot more credit from me. He simply will not be able to lay that far back and get through 19 horses. All the trouble in the stretch shows exactly what happens to deep closers and why they have so many problems winning.
Rebel: Wouldn't touch this one betting wise, even with someone elses money. Greater Good is going to get a lot of good press over this one as he should. He did what he was there to do, win. However, Tapit did the same last year in the Wood and I wasn't buying then and I'm not buying now. Rocky did ok, but nothing that made me feel better about him. His nagging injuries have created a huge hurdle for him. If that was the 65% fit Servis said he would be, ok, lots of upside, but he better look much stronger next time out. Alex gets a pass. If he was that sick and still moving that well, then he ran pretty darn good. Had enough of my own lung infections to know what they do to you.
Tampa Derby: Okay, I did bet a very small amount on this one...saddle could slip, he could stumble...happened in the others. 1-20 chalk bears a tiny bet against. Not much to get out of this one. Sun King was supposed to cream them, and he did. He looked bored. He also looked gorgeous. Beautiful animal to be sure. Like to see him knock heads with some stronger competition, but I guess that's next. Stock rising on this one. little guy may make me a believer yet.
San Felipe: Looked the best on paper and was as far as competitiveness goes, even with Consolidator pulling away at the end. Solid. He is on my radar now and bears some looking at. As good a race as this was, imagine what it would have been like if SA didn't have its March preps split in two with Going Wild and Declan's Moon in this group as well. Giacomo did a fair effort and is a good horse, but not top tier. Roman Ruler ended up exactly as I expected. Can't believe he was sent off as favorite. I know his ailment is a quarter crack, but anyone getting the idea that these FuPegs may be shooting stars? Brilliant when young, but fading fast.
So what's my thinking now:
Top Tier: 1. Afleet Alex, 2. Sun King (stock rising), 3. Rocky (but shakey now)
Second Tier: 1. Going Wild, 2. Consolidator, 3. High Fly, 4. Naughty NYer
Top o' the hype: 1. High Limit, 2. Bandini, 3. Giacomo
Wildcard: Sweet Catomine (bring on the boys!!!)