look better after race winner's

[BIG HIT]

Hi guy's In another thread about 46 to1 shot fortune hunter said the horse was second in pace etc.He is one of the better hadicapper's and much much better then i and he break's down contender's by pace tt velocity spd.That being said he choose not to play this race as to many unknown factor's.I had ask this in another thread if one factor such as pace make up20% of a race it is the most inportant factor in picking the winner?.This race seem's to show that it is.Although only one race thier are many race we look at after and the horse alway's seemed to have a shot as a contender.Fortune hunter not bashing you as have used your sheet's and have up most respect of your ability

[FortuneHunter]

I agree, winners look better after the race.
I think you can make a case for several "contenders" in any given race. When one of these win, it is easier to rationalize why.

I don't think there is any one factor that definitvely pick winners or win, place becuase each race sets up different.

If I had to choose the factor I like best, it is the horses that has proven to be the fastest most recently on today's surface/distance. I use Brisnet Speed/Pace Figures to try do this. First Cut is 4 contenders, second cut is the Win/Place Key horse. This the science part for me. A formula of 5 factors.

The next part is more personal taste and feeling. This is where I pick my 5 under horses.

So, I try to blend Science (statiscally high Win/Place %, low odds) with Art (30 years of watching, learning, knowing my circuit).

What is nice is that I have found a comfort zone. I am not going to making a living horseplaying, but a get a little money back and I am in the hunt for those nice payoffs.

Good Luck Big Hit
FH

[BIG HIT]

Hi fortune hunter I realize that are rationale is different when looking back or is easyier to see why after words why so so won.But dozen't that mean we let the other factor's that influence the race make us pass the race or doubt the factor's used to determine the winner.I know you reasearch your five factor's of which i like most if not all.What i'am getting at is in the race with the 46 to 1 shot if you had played it you would have had him as a contender right so how ever you would have played the race it wuold have paid good.If we just took horse on the merit's like pace etc maybe better off in long run.?

[Tom]

I think "comprehensive" handicapping will take you off most good priced winners. If the horse met minimum standards in all areas, he would be a favorite. In grass races for MSW or NW1, I use breeding and trainer. Maybe a plus if it is good grass jock. Nothing else. I want bad finishes on dirt. At Finger Lakes right now, with 4.5 furlong races and most horses coming off layoffs, I use trainer, recency, and early pace. Maybe only one factor per race. I want to focus on what might be the deciding factor today.
I agree that winners look better after the race is over. If you were to give me today's NY Post and let me bet yesterday's AQU races after the fact, I bet I could get 6-7 winners!

[Lefty]

I think most longshots that win only have 1 or 2 factors working for them. If it's a srong factor,(pace is) go for the odds. Contentious race? Go for the odds.

[FortuneHunter]

I think it comes down to style of play. If you go with single factor or angle, typically your win frequency goes down and your payoff goes up. And as your win frequency goes down, your losing streak goes up.

The HDM Velocity Figure seems to be potent for 2-turns and Turf at Aqueduct. For Aqueduct Spring Meets over the last 3 Meets plus the current meet HDM Velocity Rank 1 on Turf has this performance:

Races Run: 113
Win%: 29.2%
ROI: $1.41 (where $1.00 is breakeven)

Click below for the whole report:

http://www.handicappers-datamine.com/cgi-bin/UltraBoard/UltraBoard.cgi?action=Read&BID=3&TID=163&SID=100664

FH

[BIG HIT]

Fortune hunter if you only bet horse with your style of play useing the five factor's at 8 to1 or like your velocity in your thread do you think your winner's would drop that much.?The horse's don't know the odd's on them and don't trainer's some any way win most of there race's at 5 to1 and up.?Just curious as to nature of thing's as don't have a database and my computer skill's are minimal.Don't want you to reseacher it just your opion.