Trainer Spot Plays April 20

[PaceAdvantage]

My biggest batch to date:

AQU | Race #8 | Horse #6 | CRITICAL EYE
BM | Race #8 | Horse #4 | STONEBRIDGE LADY
CT | Race #3 | Horse #8 | ENVY ME
EVD | Race #7 | Horse #4 | POP I
GP | Race #7 | Horse #2 | OFFICER'S SWORD
HST | Race #3 | Horse #4 | MAIN CONTENDER
HST | Race #4 | Horse #4 | HURI UP
HST | Race #6 | Horse #3 | METROTOWN
HST | Race #7 | Horse #4 | FLYING OFFICER
HST | Race #8 | Horse #3 | BEAUTIFUL STRANGER
KEE | Race #6 | Horse #5 | MAYPOLE DANCE
LS | Race #1 | Horse #7 | CLASSOFFIFTYSEVEN
LS | Race #1 | Horse #11 | CAPITOL REALITY
PHA | Race #5 | Horse #2 | COUNTRY MEMBER
SA | Race #7 | Horse #4 | RIVERSIDE
WO | Race #7 | Horse #4 | AMAZON RIVER

Can you tell Hastings is opening up and there is a trainer or two there that does well with horses coming off of layoffs??? ;)

==PA

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage


Can you tell Hastings is opening up and there is a trainer or two there that does well with horses coming off of layoffs??? ;)

==PA

Hi PA, didn't know if anyone else around here played Hastings. The horse shortage has hit (and equine flu), so they are running today, but not again until next Saturday, then they are supposed to be on schedule. Where have all the horses gone? If I was a horse, I'd love to live on the West Coast.

AD

[PaceAdvantage]

One scratch, one place...an absolutely pathetic display....I humbly retreat to the woodshed and promise not to appear again any time soon....


WO | Race #7 | AMAZON RIVER PLACE $8.00


Results to date (betting win and place):

20 Wins / 45 Places (where 1 win also counts as 1 place)
170 Races Bet To Win & Place
$680 Wagered
$564.80 Returned
ROI= -17%

[jackad]

PA.
Is 170 races a reasonable sample to test any system? If you're down 17% at that point, what would be the probability that the system would be ahead after 350 races? Or vice-versa?
Jack

[GameTheory]

How do the win & place bets stand up when separated?

[PaceAdvantage]

jackad,

No, 170 races is definitely not a big enough test. I am not going to abandon this selection method....just taking it out of public view for a while....maybe tinker around with it a bit. I had actually tested this method over 200 races before taking it public here, and it produced a nice positive ROI over that 200 race sample, so it's not something I'm going to throw away.....



==PA

[jackad]

PA,
200 races with a positive ROI, followed by 170 races with a negative one. So 370 races are not sufficient to test a system. What number would be in your estimation? And what ROI would you be happy with?
Thanks.
Jack

[rrbauer]

Jack,
Don't know what PA has to say about your post, but it's my opinion that given the dynamics of the situation (changing tracks, surfaces, conditions, people, etc.) and the variety of trainer-related stats that he's probably working from that it's a continuing work in progress.

[GameTheory]

Trainer angles tend to be seasonal, or meet-oriented. That's why the summary stats can be so dangerous.

[smf]

PA,

A-dave (or any Canadian) can correct me if I'm looking at this the wrong way but I look at these "layoffs" for WO in March/ april differently than say in July/ august. The same w/ be the case w/ any Canadian track I suppose.

Mark Casse was ready for WO this year with "fresh" runners off a layoff. From what I hear he had parts of his stable in Ocala getting ready for the beginning of the meet. His layoff stats will look great but I'm banking on him being weak w/ layoffs later in the meet. I know the 2 months of following WO last season he didn't lite up the place with layoffs in the middle of the meet.

Awhile back Que and I had a discussion about stats vs patterns and I guess a situation like Casse's is what I was getting at. Sometimes #'s do lie. You have to dig a bit deeper in the picture.

I'm glad you're still planning to swing at trainer plays. They can be pretty nice when you find 3 or 4 trainers to hang your hat on.

[andicap]

Excellent observation SMF,
I remember Mack Miller would come off the bench in the spring often loaded to bear with horses who he freshened on the S.C. farm.
Miller layoffs , however, later in the summer, ran a bit less than average, tho.

That's why those trainer stats in the DRF and BRIS are usually pretty silly. (Though if someone is 0-21 off a layoff, that's a decent sign I guess).

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by smf
[B]PA,

A-dave (or any Canadian) can correct me if I'm looking at this the wrong way but I look at these "layoffs" for WO in March/ april differently than say in July/ august. The same w/ be the case w/ any Canadian track I suppose.

B]

I can only speak about the Hastings case (since quite a few of the picks were from there). Most of the horses have been laid off since October or early November. Some go to TuP or northern california, but most take the winter off. So it is different because almost everyone has been laid off 6 months. What I have found effective in the first few weeks is to look for horses who ran well last April when the meet started. There was one so-so horse who won his first start of the meet 4 years in a row I think (often at a nice price).

If there is a horse who has been racing recently, however, he often has a big condition edge (even with lousy form!). But even in races where they have all been off 6 months, I find that most of the horses run surprisingly close to their last year form.

AD

[PaceAdvantage]

Ray, Ray, Ray......Was that called for?

You come to my house looking to hawk your warez, because you know damn well that my corner is MUCH more popular than your corner, and then you piss all over my shoes???

You guys (you and Walter Parker) were a hoot on the old Prodigy horse board. I seem to remember your record didn't climb the charts back then either. Funny how time seems to heal all wounds, but it usually doesn't do much for those afflicted with infantilism.

Why don't you go tell ol' Walt to write another of his precious letters to the DRF telling them for the 1000th time how the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup should be run at night.....

==PA

And what the hell is up with the "Seduction Library"???? Are you guys the epitome of cheeze or what???

[Vinnie]

PA,

Break out the "Cheez-Wiz" and pour it all over him. I apologize for the comment, but, I couldn't help it. Even from where I sit things are getting pretty ridiculous here within this thread.

[andicap]

So let me get this straight. Better to be a huge jerk and win money at the track than be a good guy like PA who lays out out his own money to fund this board, bets recreationally for fun, provides all of us with a wonderful source of learning about the races and from each other, a good time, and something to do during the day when we're supposed to be working.
Yes, yours are great values we should all teach our children. The ends justify the means. Money is everything. If you make money you're a winner -- if you don't you're a schmuck and a loser and should be ridiculed publicly.
Boy, I hope you never have children.

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by andicap
So let me get this straight. Better to be a huge jerk and win money at the track than be a good guy like PA who lays out out his own money to fund this board, bets recreationally for fun, provides all of us with a wonderful source of learning about the races and from each other, a good time, and something to do during the day when we're supposed to be working.


I agree. I feel guilty that I get access to this board for nothing. It is so nice to have. Kind of a group of friends I've never met. I learn a lot and I might even teach the odd thing to a few of you. Should tip the webmaster once in a while. Where do I send the cheque?

AD

[tanda]

Ray,

At least PA has the guts to post his selections pre-race.

Instead, you rely on a non-verified claim of one day's R.O.I of 1.88. That result is statistically insignficant EVEN IF true.

Dick and Tom stand ready to test your "system" in an objective fashion.

Their offers remain unanswered.

Actually, I believe you have answered their offers by refusing to allow the testing.

[cj]

...or, you guys could just send me $2.50, and still have $2.50 leftover for a latte.

CJ

[Tom]

Our own Ray Grodon has issued a public challenge to Andy Beyer in a newsgroup alt.sport.horse-racing.
Go get 'em Ray....seriously, I would love to see this come off.
Gotta give the guy credit, he has confidence in his ratings.
I'm rooting for ya, Ray!

[smf]

Tom,

You have a link for that? I'd like to see ol' Ray do his limbless Monty Python charachter imitation, lol.

Thanks.

[andicap]

Huh? You need the DRF's permission to post your picks just because they are based on Beyer figs?
Marc at DRF, are you out there? This can't be true.
I posted some picks for the Derby two weeks ago and gave my ratings -- they were based on BRIS figures. Can BRIS sue me?

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by andicap
Huh? You need the DRF's permission to post your picks just because they are based on Beyer figs?
Marc at DRF, are you out there? This can't be true.
I posted some picks for the Derby two weeks ago and gave my ratings -- they were based on BRIS figures. Can BRIS sue me?

It appears that there is a solution. Some people in the past have been advised by their lawyers that the best way of avoiding lawsuits is to post their picks after the race is over. Can't wait for all the winners on Saturday night!

My pick for the Preakness - Secretariat. The Derby was not a fluke. I think he has a real chance of being the first triple crown winner in 25 years.

AD

[smf]

Got an email from a friend about our boy Gordo, Tom.

I don't think Beyer w/ waste any time on this guy.

http://members.odinsrage.com/rayfaqpage/