Win Pools - Small Track Big Track

[Buddha]

Just did a quick little one race study today after CJs talk about TP odds changing so drastically last night.

AQU 2nd race
TAM 4th race
TP 2nd race



AQU

Time To Post Pool Size %of Final Pool

3 MTP 90619 43%
2 MTP 112560 54%
1 MTP 136191 65%
0 MTP 163091 78%
PT 208264 100%

TAM

Time To Post Pool Size %of Final Pool

3 MTP 25712 38%
2 MTP 32312 49%
1 MTP 40154 61%
0 MTP 51449 78%
PT 65749 100%

TP

Time To Post Pool Size %of Final Pool

3 MTP 5011 17%
2 MTP 8013 27%
1 MTP 11811 40%
0 MTP 15743 53%
PT 29417 100%

[kenwoodallpromos]

I had an idea but you have the info I needed!
Kind of hard for it to all be last minute stable money? eh? LOL!

[traveler]

With all that money pouring in at the last minute at small tracks, is it being distributed relatively evenly among all the horses or are certain horses getting hammered down and winning? I don't know what the signifigance is. (never claimed to be too bright). :confused:

[Dave Schwartz]

And it also changes with your tote feed, even from one day to the next.

I recall using SuperTote for one study a few years ago where the pool totals averaged about 46% with zero minutes to post.


Dave Schwartz

[freeneasy]

54% of the total went in after the pool closed :D i dont know, for some reason dave that just struck me as funny

[ratpack]

[QUOTE=Dave Schwartz]And it also changes with your tote feed, even from one day to the next.

I recall using SuperTote for one study a few years ago where the pool totals averaged about 46% with zero minutes to post.

I read an article someplace saying that part of the problem was that lots of these simulcast outlets only sent in the money once after the betting closes so they save on transmission costs.

[kenwoodallpromos]

So, which stable bet $100,000 the last 2 minutes at AQ? LOL.

[Tote Master]

Buddha
Just did a quick little one race study today after CJs talk about TP odds changing so drastically last night.
AQU 2nd race Not quite sure what the point of all this is, but its seems pretty insignificant. In the first example (AQU R2 on 3/19) at approx. 18 mins to post there was only a little over $13K in the Win pool and the odds- on choice, #6 was 4/5. It remained that way all through the betting cycle until about post time when it dropped a bit further to 3/5. So even with the addition of $195K to the WIN pool the odds barely changed. To the odds watcher there wasn’t much to see, but from a tote analysis #6 was an obvious false (over bet) favorite. By analyzing ALL the betting pools during betting cycle, both the #1 and #3 clearly indicated a favorable bias. In fact even with the higher odds, #1 was getting proportionately stronger play then either the #3 or #6. The odds watchers might have noticed the slight dip in the odds of the #1 and #3 at 12 mins. to post, but were probably scared off by such a heavy favorite. Of course we all know the outcome.

Anyone who looks at just the odds is getting the wrong impression of the tote board. Keep in mind that it’s the (WIN) money that creates the odds, but there’s so much more being wagered that is apparently going unnoticed. The WIN pool is just the tip of the iceberg. In my opinion the only thing the odds should be used for is determining the value of the bet.

As far as the late money goes, it certainly does not come in from any single source. It’s always being funneled in from every remote location, be it an OTB, simulcast, or on-shore racebook. I’m not a big fan of late money for a number reasons that I’ve mentioned before.
Dave Schwartz
And it also changes with your tote feed, even from one day to the next.
I recall using SuperTote for one study a few years ago where the pool totals averaged about 46% with zero minutes to post. They’ve apparently have made some improvements over the years. I currently monitor (3) tote feeds simultaneously, and there is very little difference. Not only from one to another, but also from one day to the next. I will say that the Racing Channel probably has the most stable feed, but the others are getting better. The late money that always pours in near post time is an electronic accumulation of all the remote betting locations. As ratpack mentioned its done that way to consolidate and reduce the transmission feeds. It just might be the most efficient way of doing it.