DerbyTrail
03-19-2005, 12:11 PM
Saturday's San Felipe and Rebel Stakes at Santa Anita are loaded with Derby-intended sophomore talent, including four of the top five finishers in last year's BC Juvenile. Juvy winner WILKO and fifth place finisher ROMAN RULER make their 2005 debuts at Arcadia, while fourth place runner CONSOLIDATOR stretches out after his less than sterling San Vincente run. At Hot Springs, Juvenile runner up AFLEET ALEX joins ROCKPORT HARBOR and GREATER GOOD in what should be a memorable edition of the traditional prep for the Arkansas Derby.
In DON'T GET MAD, GIACOMO and GOLDEN SHINE, the San Felipe also features up and coming colts looking to validate their claims among the West Coast's top prospects. But with rain expected yet again in L.A., there is potential for a mudlarking effort by LUCKY J.H., a Cal-bred pacesetter that has exchanged decisions in '05 with Camino winner Uncle Denny.
The San Felipe has been as important a California prep as any over the years, with eight Kentucky Derby winners making a start in the Santa Anita Derby prep. The San Felipe has been as noteworthy for its runners up as for its winners, with Real Quiet, Timber Country, Alysheba, Gato Del Sol, Ancient Title, Lucky Debonair, Olden Times, T.V. Lark and Tomy Lee all finishing second here before going on to their various career achievements. The group that will assemble figures to send several runners on to Louisville this year, and harkens back to 2003 when Buddy Gil, Atswhatimtalknbout and Brancusi rounded out the finish before all made Funny Cide's run for the roses.
Santa Anita has run 8 heats at today's distance in the past week, and while none have been taken wire to wire, on pace runners have faired well. The rail has been advantageous.
THE 68th SAN FELIPE, Gr. II, $250,000, 8.5f, SA 8th, 7:14 pm, All carry 116,
1.) DON'T GET MAD (Ellis/Baze) 6-1: Trainer lost Derby fave to injury this week, but still has B. Wayne Hughes' bay son of Stephen Got Even to helm towards Churchill. Came on late in wet-fast 7f Vincente placement to FuRock, and broke maiden in CD slop last November. Goes two turns for first time and saves ground all the way. Highly appealing at tab given anticipated conditions. Ellis "only" 7 for 15 at SA meet by the way...
2.) LUCKY J.H. (Gaines/Court) 15-1: Cal-bred has matched wits admirably with good Uncle Denny this year and is another who figures to enjoy precipitation. Makes initial try at open and graded company, and seems likely to set pace with little other true speed signed on. Mudlarking spinner could take some catching. Not the craziest play if it comes up wet.
3.) IN EXCELSIS (McAnally/Solis) 20-1: Trainer skidding last dozen (0-0-2) and this FuPeg bay out of the brilliant racemare Lakeway doesn't appear likely to end the drought. NA debut off 60 day break was uneventful 5th three weeks ago, and interim drills show no dramatic improvement. Hard to envision, but a horse worth watching on pedigree alone. Ron running 22% with 2nd off layoff types.
4.) GIACOMO (Shirreffs/Smith) 5-2: ML favorite has advanced steadily since runaway maiden win first route try 10/18. Exits key race Sham where he missed Going Wild and Papi by less than two while wide throughout. Cuts back a 'teenth today and figures to sit a good stalking trip for first jump heading for home. Conditioner hot of late, and son of Holy Bull could be at the doorstep of big things. Major player with best last race Beyer in tow.
5.) ROMAN RULER (Baffert/Stevens) 4-1: One of '04's top babies finally gets back to racing after ridgling surgery and quarter crack issues. Trained nicely once healthy, and mile gate work 10 days ago noted. Has never left gate at more than 2-1 in 5/3-0-1 career, so price could force your wagering hand. Baffert another winless with last 12 starters, and not sure if he wants this guy running a corker immediately. Impossible to keep out of your boxes.
6.) WILKO (Dollase/Nakatani) 3-1: BC Juvy champ another dogged by minor setbacks earlier, but Dollase never intended a Derby campaign of more than two starts anyway. Laid solid foundation for soph season with 12/3-2-5 mark at 2; works suggest he comes out running, and Craig hitting at 40% (8 for 20) with layoff of this ilk. Has tactical foot capable of adjustments to pace scenario, and just may quiet all the critics. Could float up in the pools too. Using prominently.
7.) GOLDEN SHINE (Hofmans/Douglas) 5-1: Hofmans Touch Gold colt exploded on scene 2/16 when he Beyered 96 this trip off seven month vacation. Has been out of sight/mind , but may sound notice again in first black type try. Will likely attend pace today, and if mud not an issue, could be the one to catch late. Intriguing prospect.
8.) CONSOLIDATOR (Lukas/Bejarano) 8-1: How good a Gr. II field do you have when a Gr. I winner is the 6th choice of eight? Storm Cat red from Bob and Bev was short in San Vincente according to DWL, but continued morning glory work since. Two of his three off the board runs came on wet surfaces, so rain a concern. Post not a bargain either with all the other pace-setters inside him. Bejarano flies in to ride, and we expect a good showing, but hard to assign place in terrific field.
SELECTIONS
1. DON'T GET MAD
2. LUCKY J.H. (If wet. Otherwise downgrade to 5th choice)
3. GIACOMO
4. WILCO
5. ROMAN RULER
THE REBEL, Gr. III, 8.5f, $250,000 OP 10
The Rebel comes down to the top three of course, and there isn't much to say with Rockport Harbor a question mark to make the start. Afleet Alex tuned up for this race with an excellent move in the 6f Mountain View which scored on any number of fronts. The 7/5-2-0 Northern Afleet bay started poorly, was bothered later, and still caught the very good front running Razor well in advance of the line. Although many characterized it as a paid workout, there's no substitute for live racing, and it's certain that Tim Ritchey's colt will benefit having made the start.
Greater Good won the Southwest despite his own rough launch, and gets the benefit of added distance in this race, his second off the break. Bob Holthus is honing the son of Intidab to a fine edge, and we think today could be a perfect spot to score with him.
Rockport Harbor's attempt to start 2005 has been problematic for John Servis, and even if he enters the spa gate today, it will be at far less than peak condition.
SELECTIONS:
1. GREATER GOOD
2. AFLEET ALEX
3. ROCKPORT HARBOR
4. JAZZY GALLOP
In DON'T GET MAD, GIACOMO and GOLDEN SHINE, the San Felipe also features up and coming colts looking to validate their claims among the West Coast's top prospects. But with rain expected yet again in L.A., there is potential for a mudlarking effort by LUCKY J.H., a Cal-bred pacesetter that has exchanged decisions in '05 with Camino winner Uncle Denny.
The San Felipe has been as important a California prep as any over the years, with eight Kentucky Derby winners making a start in the Santa Anita Derby prep. The San Felipe has been as noteworthy for its runners up as for its winners, with Real Quiet, Timber Country, Alysheba, Gato Del Sol, Ancient Title, Lucky Debonair, Olden Times, T.V. Lark and Tomy Lee all finishing second here before going on to their various career achievements. The group that will assemble figures to send several runners on to Louisville this year, and harkens back to 2003 when Buddy Gil, Atswhatimtalknbout and Brancusi rounded out the finish before all made Funny Cide's run for the roses.
Santa Anita has run 8 heats at today's distance in the past week, and while none have been taken wire to wire, on pace runners have faired well. The rail has been advantageous.
THE 68th SAN FELIPE, Gr. II, $250,000, 8.5f, SA 8th, 7:14 pm, All carry 116,
1.) DON'T GET MAD (Ellis/Baze) 6-1: Trainer lost Derby fave to injury this week, but still has B. Wayne Hughes' bay son of Stephen Got Even to helm towards Churchill. Came on late in wet-fast 7f Vincente placement to FuRock, and broke maiden in CD slop last November. Goes two turns for first time and saves ground all the way. Highly appealing at tab given anticipated conditions. Ellis "only" 7 for 15 at SA meet by the way...
2.) LUCKY J.H. (Gaines/Court) 15-1: Cal-bred has matched wits admirably with good Uncle Denny this year and is another who figures to enjoy precipitation. Makes initial try at open and graded company, and seems likely to set pace with little other true speed signed on. Mudlarking spinner could take some catching. Not the craziest play if it comes up wet.
3.) IN EXCELSIS (McAnally/Solis) 20-1: Trainer skidding last dozen (0-0-2) and this FuPeg bay out of the brilliant racemare Lakeway doesn't appear likely to end the drought. NA debut off 60 day break was uneventful 5th three weeks ago, and interim drills show no dramatic improvement. Hard to envision, but a horse worth watching on pedigree alone. Ron running 22% with 2nd off layoff types.
4.) GIACOMO (Shirreffs/Smith) 5-2: ML favorite has advanced steadily since runaway maiden win first route try 10/18. Exits key race Sham where he missed Going Wild and Papi by less than two while wide throughout. Cuts back a 'teenth today and figures to sit a good stalking trip for first jump heading for home. Conditioner hot of late, and son of Holy Bull could be at the doorstep of big things. Major player with best last race Beyer in tow.
5.) ROMAN RULER (Baffert/Stevens) 4-1: One of '04's top babies finally gets back to racing after ridgling surgery and quarter crack issues. Trained nicely once healthy, and mile gate work 10 days ago noted. Has never left gate at more than 2-1 in 5/3-0-1 career, so price could force your wagering hand. Baffert another winless with last 12 starters, and not sure if he wants this guy running a corker immediately. Impossible to keep out of your boxes.
6.) WILKO (Dollase/Nakatani) 3-1: BC Juvy champ another dogged by minor setbacks earlier, but Dollase never intended a Derby campaign of more than two starts anyway. Laid solid foundation for soph season with 12/3-2-5 mark at 2; works suggest he comes out running, and Craig hitting at 40% (8 for 20) with layoff of this ilk. Has tactical foot capable of adjustments to pace scenario, and just may quiet all the critics. Could float up in the pools too. Using prominently.
7.) GOLDEN SHINE (Hofmans/Douglas) 5-1: Hofmans Touch Gold colt exploded on scene 2/16 when he Beyered 96 this trip off seven month vacation. Has been out of sight/mind , but may sound notice again in first black type try. Will likely attend pace today, and if mud not an issue, could be the one to catch late. Intriguing prospect.
8.) CONSOLIDATOR (Lukas/Bejarano) 8-1: How good a Gr. II field do you have when a Gr. I winner is the 6th choice of eight? Storm Cat red from Bob and Bev was short in San Vincente according to DWL, but continued morning glory work since. Two of his three off the board runs came on wet surfaces, so rain a concern. Post not a bargain either with all the other pace-setters inside him. Bejarano flies in to ride, and we expect a good showing, but hard to assign place in terrific field.
SELECTIONS
1. DON'T GET MAD
2. LUCKY J.H. (If wet. Otherwise downgrade to 5th choice)
3. GIACOMO
4. WILCO
5. ROMAN RULER
THE REBEL, Gr. III, 8.5f, $250,000 OP 10
The Rebel comes down to the top three of course, and there isn't much to say with Rockport Harbor a question mark to make the start. Afleet Alex tuned up for this race with an excellent move in the 6f Mountain View which scored on any number of fronts. The 7/5-2-0 Northern Afleet bay started poorly, was bothered later, and still caught the very good front running Razor well in advance of the line. Although many characterized it as a paid workout, there's no substitute for live racing, and it's certain that Tim Ritchey's colt will benefit having made the start.
Greater Good won the Southwest despite his own rough launch, and gets the benefit of added distance in this race, his second off the break. Bob Holthus is honing the son of Intidab to a fine edge, and we think today could be a perfect spot to score with him.
Rockport Harbor's attempt to start 2005 has been problematic for John Servis, and even if he enters the spa gate today, it will be at far less than peak condition.
SELECTIONS:
1. GREATER GOOD
2. AFLEET ALEX
3. ROCKPORT HARBOR
4. JAZZY GALLOP