Chinese Double Redboard

[azibuck]

Aqueduct 9th, Wednesday. I was wagering on this race because the #9, Two Toed Sloth was on my watch list. His figs didn't seem to match up to two others, but I'm a degenerate so I looked at the tote. While watching at about 7 MTP, I see that RB's Token has taken a little money and is 6/1, down from a ML of 8/1.

So I pull up the will pays. RB's Token was paying just under $32 to the winner of the 8th. At 8/1 ML, that made his Chinese Double odds a field-best 4/1. RB's Token also had the best Milkowski Pace Figure (not performance fig, but the pace fig). Second career start. A couple others were at 6/1 Chinese double odds, but I know a good gamble when one hits me in the face.

I bet $2 to win on RB's Token and Two Toed Sloth, and boxed them for a buck in the exacta. Two Toed Sloth wasn't ITM, but RB won (by 6.25) at $18.40.

I post this only to marvel again that I've tried and given up a dozen methods, yet this is one that has worked for me. Don't bother posting any stats to the contrary, it's just a great head-shaking, laughter-inducing spot play.

[cj]

Of course there is always the program pinned to wall upside down, throw a dart with your opposite hand method. That one can be fun too! :jump:

[JPinMaryland]

what the heck are "will pays?" Ive heard this before..

[cj]

Daily Double, after the first leg, the track posts:

Daily Double 1 & Will Pay
1: 25.00
2: 30.00

etc...

[Valuist]

One of the most exciting things at the track is waiting for the will pays for the final leg of a P3, P4 or P6. Some of them just defy logic.

[46zilzal]

Only TWO horses projected early on a speed favoring track in a speed favoring race, the winner had the 2nd best speed to the second call, a sure sign of an upcoming maiden score. "Two toed" was the other speed horse here, so you analyzed it perfectly.

[Suff]

Luzzi-Levine

[karlskorner]

I told you it works, not all the time, but the rewards are there. Now my PM box will be full asking for the Chinese Double.

[Suff]

Referenece CJ's post about DRF's new stuff

From the quick sheet

gave 6 horses exiting Key races... including 3 in the 2nd. so they gave 3 LIVE horses outside that race. RB token a Single in the 9th

Race 9 RB Tokens. Go get the sheet off CJ links.. its there, I just printed them out to get a good look at them

More on DRF's New stuff

Gave 7 horses off "Profitabe Trainer angles"

Gave RB,.. 2 mentions... Dirt $2.25, Sprint $2.54.


Sheets are nice. But.. No one likes to handicap anymore.

[cj]

I told you it works, not all the time, but the rewards are there. Now my PM box will be full asking for the Chinese Double.

Absolutely everything works some of the time. This is not profitable over any reasonable length of time.

[azibuck]

Yeah, but it's fun as hell when it works. Your pace fig showed some ability. The pace setup favored this one. So those are reasons the horse won. But why were his DD odds depressed, relative to his win odds?

I've only ever crunched the numbers on a Chinese double a handful of times -- less than ten. And the hit rate must be at least 50%. It seems like it's hit every time, but I know it hasn't.

The point is that this isn't really a "method" or even a spot play. It's that sometimes smart money is wagered in the double pool. This certainly wasn't an overwhelming case of that, but it fit the criteria.

[karlskorner]

It's a nice way to start the day
A $40.00 pay
May send you on your way

[andicap]

Absolutely everything works some of the time. This is not profitable over any reasonable length of time.

Ive never looked into the Chinese Double but isn't it possible that even if it doesn't work as a regular angle, COULD it point you in the right direction as it did Azibuck and tell you to take another look at the race?

Not a signal to bet in and of itself, but a signal to take a longer look at that combo and see if there's more there that meets the eye: a short-term trainer angle, a nice workout pattern,a good form cycle, one of the trainer "moves" from Lehand/Guru, strange betting pattern in the win pool, etc.

[cj]

I just don't believe that anyone can read the tote board and somehow figure out that smart money is on a particular horse. And even if it is, how smart is that money really? Wouldn't you want to bet it off shore if it was so smart?

[cj]

Not to mention it uses the morning line, which is just some guy's guess as to how he thinks the betting action will go.

[TOOZ]

Had the double with the 5, what kills me was the 3 and the 5 came out of the same last race, where the 5 was 7-2ish and the 3 was 20-1ish. They bet the three down to 6-5 and the 5 was 8-1 and won easy.

[azibuck]

CJ, I respect your opinion on all things horses, even this. But your last two comments are irrelevant to the Chinese Double.

I just don't believe that anyone can read the tote board and somehow figure out that smart money is on a particular horse. And even if it is, how smart is that money really? Wouldn't you want to bet it off shore if it was so smart?

All the time? No, of course not. Not even for every double every time -- but sometimes anamolies in the tote, or in this case will pays, do mean something. It might mean someone has a hunch. It might be arrogant money. Or it might just be smart money.

Could just be lucky money.

As for betting it offshore, you're assuming a different kind of smarts. I make the assumption that this money is wagered by someone close to the horse, and by extension close to or on the track. It's probably old school money.

No offense to internet-savvy octegenarians here at PA, but you also might be looking at money wagered by some 80yo owner clinging to some 1940's paranoid notion about depressing his odds in the win pool. (No idea if that's the case here, and the example is extreme only to make the point.)

A valid reason for betting a horse heavy in the double is that the 80yo needs a nap, so he'll be leaving the track early. Or he's afraid he walks so slowly he'll get shut out if he waits until the last minute to bet in the Win pool. So he's got to wager early. If he puts his $200+ in the win pool before his race, the first flash will show his money and then "everyone will know."

Far-fetched? Maybe. But you've got to think like an on-track octegenarian, clinging to 1940s ideas.

What it is, is money that doesn't make sense. Maybe there's no reason, but maybe there is. That kind of leads to your other comment:

Not to mention it uses the morning line, which is just some guy's guess as to how he thinks the betting action will go.

That the ML is used is irrelevant. Look at it another way. In this race, RB's Token was the 4th choice in the wagering -- not the ML, but the actual win wagering.

He was 3rd choice among doubles players. And we're not talking about by a buck or two. Why?

Would you feel differently if he was 2nd choice in the double and 6th in the win pool? Do doubles player handicap so differently from win players that a difference in rank order of wagering is always meaningless?

I just re-read this before submitting and one thing is pretty clear. I'm a crackpot. But I'm comfortable with that.

[Light]

Don't see the mystique of this Chinese double or why it's called Chinese. It's called "steam".