Share your insights?

[traynor]

Hi,
We are putting together a website and online content for novice to intermediate handicappers and we need expert opinion, advice, and insights. If anyone would be interested in publishing anything from short tips to 5-10 page articles on handicapping topics, please let me know, or submit the material.

This will not be a commercial site! It is intended to provide handicappers the tools they need to win, free of charge. We believe the best sources of information are those handicappers who are already successful, and are willing to share their insights and strategies with those less successful.

Project is in planning stage, should be launched in about six weeks. We are compiling and editing content now. If you have never considered authoring before, please consider it now--we will be happy to help with editing and formatting if needed.
Thanks
Traynor

[cj]

Ummm...isn't that what PA has here?

[JustRalph]

Ummm...isn't that what PA has here?

reading my mind!

[BillW]

Hi,
We are putting together a website and online content for novice to intermediate handicappers and we need expert opinion, advice, and insights. If anyone would be interested in publishing anything from short tips to 5-10 page articles on handicapping topics, please let me know, or submit the material.

Traynor

Traynor,

Do you mind me asking who you are working with?

Bill

[Observer]

Ummm...isn't that what PA has here?

That's what I was thinking, too.

[Speed Figure]

I would be more than happy to write 5-10 pages on why they should come over to PaceAdvantage.

[Show Me the Wire]

They need expert opinions for novice to itermediate handicappers. There are alot of experts here. :eek:

[kenwoodallpromos]

There is no way in hell I would write 1 word for you if you do not even have anything in your profile.
I have no idea who you are and if you are really going to be non-profit.
Even if non-profit you need to sign a contract for use of the info if is worth reading.

[kenwoodallpromos]

" anyone is working on an application of his or her own, and would like to trade information, ideas, insights, or wild conjectures, I have a reasonable level of skill with both Java and Visual Basic and my primary interest is in developing an application for personal use (unless someone else has already developed one that can crank out a positive expectation). Collaboration and multiple viewpoints are always useful."
____________
You started on the forum this month, put out about 20 emails, want capping programs for "personal use", now want writings for a "non-profit website".
How can anyone trust that you did not just cruise here to rip people off of all their good things to profit from?
____________
This guy and the guy I public handicapped for for 3 weeks who refused to pay me is the reason I am suspicious and put forth very few of my ideas.
We have seen similar guys to this before.
There are tons of websites with articles on handicapping already out there but they will sue for copyright infringement if they are already in business.
Give us some id information on you and "we" and show us a sample contract for the writings you will sign promising not to use the info to profit.
Thanks. :lol:

[NoDayJob]

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Funnee stuff---

NDJ

[Lasix1]

Hi,
We are putting together a website and online content for novice to intermediate handicappers and we need expert opinion, advice, and insights. If anyone would be interested in publishing anything from short tips to 5-10 page articles on handicapping topics, please let me know, or submit the material.

This will not be a commercial site! It is intended to provide handicappers the tools they need to win, free of charge. We believe the best sources of information are those handicappers who are already successful, and are willing to share their insights and strategies with those less successful.
Traynor
Great idea, Traynor, but I wonder how you overcome the problem of the best and most successful handicappers refusing to reveal their secrets on an open website? After all, this game is "paramutual", a French term meaning "among ourselves." In other words, the game is zero-sum. The more people who know, the lower the mutuals.

The problem would seem to be a common one characteristic of many things in life. Those who know aren't talking, and those who are talking don't know.

[dav4463]

Some people who are successful like to teach other people. There's nothing wrong with that. Maybe a website that will get some younger people interested in learning handicapping would work. The game certainly needs people who understand why we love handicapping over pulling a slot machine handle. I've seen so many people who go to the track and do not have a clue, but once they understand the game (even a little bit) they start to get interested and actually approach the game with some intelligence. A good website to help teach handicapping basics cannot hurt in my opinion. Just because a few people post some ideas and philosophies doesn't mean we are all going to bet the same horse !

[DJofSD]

It is said a good idea goes through three stages. Phase one is in evidence.

Go for it! And post a link when it's up. I don't think PA would object since it will be a noncommercial site.

You'd make a good start if you could get something from Tom Brohamer.

DJofSD

[First_Place]

(imitates Beavis) He...he-he...he-he...no way dude.

FP :)

[First_Place]

I forgot, there's already a web site like that. Here's the link:

http://www.turfpedia.com/

FP

[Jed]

Horse made up ground late in last race. Today he stretches out in distance, this should allow him more time to be first at the wire. It's a sure thing!


:liar:

[BIG RED]

Always take the fastest horse, period. It is that simple.

( in 15 seconds this post will self destruct )

[traynor]

Lasix1 wrote <Great idea, Traynor, but I wonder how you overcome the problem of the best and most successful handicappers refusing to reveal their secrets on an open website? After all, this game is "paramutual", a French term meaning "among ourselves." In other words, the game is zero-sum. The more people who know, the lower the mutuals.

The problem would seem to be a common one characteristic of many things in life. Those who know aren't talking, and those who are talking don't know.>

I used to get a lot of that in martial arts classes; the "experts" usually turned out to be dojo ballerinas who would get their clocks cleaned regularly in the real world. The myth of the "silent expert" is often used as a cover for incompetence. By the way, you are correct about the term being French, but it is spelled pari-mutuel, with an "e".
Thanks,

[traynor]

dav4463 wrote <The game certainly needs people who understand why we love handicapping over pulling a slot machine handle. >

I agree. To anyone under 40, handicapping in general and horse racing in particular is generally dismissed as the irrelevant pasttime of those too old or too narrow-minded to have a life of their own. In short, the demise of horse racing is being caused by the fact that most who are not already "true believers" consider it terminally boring. That is, less intellectually challenging than stock trading, and far less exciting than poker.

Introducing new people to handicapping can only be of benefit to all.
Thanks

[sjk]

I thought all the MBA students were enjoying handicapping. Have they given up or are they all over 40 these days?

[traynor]

kenwoodallpromos wrote <How can anyone trust that you did not just cruise here to rip people off of all their good things to profit from?>

Well, how can I trust that you have anything worth publishing? Practicing losing for years does not equate to expertise by any criteria. Your post implies that you are privy to some "good things" that it is possible to profit from; to tell you the truth, I have yet to see anything on this forum except that which could be dismissed as the rambings of hobbyists and "paper handicappers."

Thanks anyway, but in head-to-head, I think the techniques we are using already would make your "good things" look silly and amateurish. That was not the purpose of my post; I was interested in material for newbies. Basic handicapping. I have no interest whatsoever in your (real or imagined) "good things."
Thanks

[sjk]

Maybe that's why its hard to get new people interested in handicapping. Too many sharks.

You would have to imagine that a newcomer taking a casual interest would have very little chance of even coming close to break-even.

You've got my curiosity up as to what sort of ROI you guys are making with the sophisticated techniques (over several thousand races).

[fmhealth]

I for one would be more than happy to contribute. Been a 'capper for the past 46 years. Have "evolved" into a fairly good "physicality" 'capper. Even via simulcasts you can usually dq more than 60% of the entries on body language alone. While this helps narrow-down the field, it also saves you A LOT of money by tossing out horses that have already compromised their chances before the race has begun.

Another point to consider is that most players don't even look at the horses. I personally ONLY bet simulcasts that allow me a good view in the paddock. No view, no bet. At AP where I spend 4 days/week in season it's remarkable. On weekdays maybe there are 20 'cappers examining the horses, weekends make that 100. At HAW, there are 20 "regulars" that reside in the paddock. So, if you can master just some of the telltale signs of a "ready horse" you come away with a material advantage over others only using pps. Simply another perspective to consider before risking your capital.

[traynor]

fmhealth wrote <Another point to consider is that most players don't even look at the horses.>
I agree completely. Handicapping based on past history, without considering present condition, is silly; at many tracks, the choice of bet/no bet is made on the basis of inspection of the entries, rather than a numerical representation of how they ran weeks ago. Numerical quantification is a great place to start--it is a long, long way from being the whole story.
Thanks

[traynor]

sjk wrote <I thought all the MBA students were enjoying handicapping. Have they given up or are they all over 40 these days?>

The ones who enjoy it are the ones who win!
Thanks

[PaceAdvantage]

to tell you the truth, I have yet to see anything on this forum except that which could be dismissed as the rambings of hobbyists and "paper handicappers."

Well, if the web development gig falls through, at least you can fall back on your comedic skills....

[andicap]

?>; to tell you the truth, I have yet to see anything on this forum except that which could be dismissed as the rambings of hobbyists and "paper handicappers."



Hear that CJ, Keilan, et al; I always knew you were "paper handicappers." Paper as in all the Franklins they're paying you at the windows. And stop "rambling" Keilan -- that energy stuff you've taught me sounds like Homer Simpson did tonight after the garage door kept slamming him.

I haven't learned a thing on this site -- well, I have learned one thing: to use the "ignore" button for certain people.

[Tom]

Well, if the web development gig falls through, at least you can fall back on your comedic skills....

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[Tom]

andicap,

I am using the Ignore button now, and the headaches have disappeared.
The hands don't tremble anymore, and I'm down to 4-5 Tums a day!:D

[keilan]

Thanks anyway, but in head-to-head, I think the techniques we are using already would make your "good things" look silly and amateurish. Thanks

Okay big boy it's time to cough up --impress me with something, anything. If you can't STFU. :liar:

[keilan]

Ya know Andy any player that hasn’t learnt something here at PA’s only has himself to blame. There are lots of guys here that bring stuff to the table. Stay well my energy friend :)

[kenwoodallpromos]

4 tracks are now averaging track workout times: SA, DM, AQ, and BEL on their workout link under the works.
Those on here longer than Traynor know who started talking about the value of representative workout times. FYI.
That same person (me) sent the idea to a number of major tracks. I assume Saratoga will be using them also.
Steve Woods, who is track super at SA, is also track super at the Northern Ca fairs, so I will see if they have use for them also.
Del Mar began using them about 1 week ago, after I emailed Mary, their publicist and advising her of the others and that they may want to try them.
I previously got no response from them about contracting with me to provide my median workout times. Averaging is easier for them and they do not have to pay me!
Not trying to brag, I just think I had 1 good idea in my 4 years of handicapping.
Traynor may search the PA forum for my rare picks on here if he wishes.

[traynor]

keilan wrote <Okay big boy it's time to cough up --impress me with something, anything. If you can't STFU.>

Give me a reason. Some of those brilliant insights into the higher reaches of handicapping essence, the illuminating truisms that will send readers into rapturous delight at being in the presence of such world-class bettors and analysts. Or even something that does not appear to be idle gossip and conjecture.

What I see is opinion, not insight. Ramblings, not ideas. I may have missed something in a topic from way back when, but I don't think so. I have no objection whatsoever to handicappers socializing; that is the primary motive of many bettors.

My objection is to the idea that anyone who does not parrot the party line is somehow "wrong" and all that matters is to maintain the illusion of expertise. I bet in the real world, and in that real world, I have seen very little that indicates a level of expertise above the same tired silliness that Sartin and his crew expounded years ago.

When I suggested it may be beneficial to all concerned to provide information on the basics of handicapping to beginners, several posters pounced as if I were asking about their dirty laundry, or, even worse, their "insider's insights." My response is the same as it was then; I have not seen anything posted on this site that appears professional-grade. I don't mean that as insulting, but rather to make the point that I don't think you need to worry about "exposing your secrets."
Thanks

[sjk]

Traynor,

I am still curious as to the level of success (ROI) that your associates have been able to realize. Assuming it's better than I am doing it will give me a goal to shoot for.

If you are reluctant to reveal your personal results, let's just say it's understood that your response relates to others you have observed.

[Kreed]

How Right You are Bro, MR ENERGY ........ if Only you weren't Canadian you mite
be our Sec of Energy here. i don't understand 1/2 the concept just like I will
Never understand particle physics. ummmH ... i say, like when I Foolishly took
one innocent course for like 1/2 credit called "Genetics 4 The Layman"---
sounds even more innocent than Derek2U, so I figured as an accounting major,
wtf, get some science in the left brain, well WTF, I got an F & I was pissed.
so, i go to the Dean & say WTF, etc etc, and HE AGREES, thats not a layman
course, its got 3rd yr bio majors & then you, Derek. So, the ph.d prof & me
square off in Deans' office: HE, "Derek seems preOccupied", ME, "Prof picks
his head & has the scabs as Proof and that distracts me." Verdict: I WIN:
the prof MUST give me a chance to get a better grade. Yipeee, drinks On Me.
damnn .......... the solution, over the summer I MUST read these 3 Genetic books &^ write a paper for each one!!! Some solution, like Bush's plan 4 SS?
anyways, that prof finally amended my grade to a C ... gee Thanks guy.

[traynor]

andicap wrote <Hear that CJ, Keilan, et al; I always knew you were "paper handicappers." Paper as in all the Franklins they're paying you at the windows.>

If I had a dollar for every claim of "big scores" I have heard over the years, I would spend more time in France. I do not dispute that posters here may be making a decent amount of money. Specifically, exactly, what I said involved the fact that very little information is posted. That is a turnoff for newbies; they see a lot of veiled claims, implications, insinuations, but very, very little real information.

As I have stated several times, I have no interest in your "secrets." I think mine are better. My interest is in providing enough information to newbies to get them winning a few races, enjoying the experience, and hopefully putting new life into the game.

At one of Sartin's seminars, I believe at Santa Anita, Dick Mitchell made a big point of how much he was winning. Jim Selvidge disputed it and asked for a photocopy of his tax return, in which he declared the many thousands of claimed "profit" as income. Whatever happened to that idea, anyway? Never heard much about it.

I suppose that somewhere, someone actually wins, keeps tight records, and reports every up and down to the IRS on the appropriate forms, with support that goes beyond a shoebox of tickets, half of which have heel prints. They would be professionals. I used to hang out with the Sartin folks who only kept track of their wins, ignoring losses (and thinking about those losses) as "negative thinking." I even knew people who kept cardboard boxes full of clippings of winning races in the trunks of their cars--and not one losing race in the lot. There is a very technical term for that type of thinking; it is called "denial." Most of the Sartin group, including many who claimed "expert" or "teaching" status, were stone cold rookies in the dollar department.

The bottom line is a "professional level earning," which right now is running around $60-70,000 a year. Unless you are making that much or more, you are not really a "professional." Everyone makes scores, everyone cashes big payoffs. The relevant thing is the bottom line. Profit minus losses, not just profit. They taught me that in an MBA class.
Thanks

[sjk]

Traynor,

Thanks for the reply as to annual dollar profit. Is there a typical way to get to the 60-70k in terms of (amt of action) x (ROI) = 60-70k or are there a variety of paths to get there?

[keilan]

Traynor

I asked you to give me something, anything that would show that you in fact had an original thought. All you’ve done to this point is tell us all what a bunch of knuckleheads we all are.

I feel no need to prove myself to someone that stumbled onto PA’s site. Why don’t you post a few races in advance, play along in a couple contests, or post something that makes us giggle with excitement. To continue to tell us what a bunch of hacks we are is not productive.

[GameTheory]

The bottom line is a "professional level earning," which right now is running around $60-70,000 a year. Unless you are making that much or more, you are not really a "professional." Everyone makes scores, everyone cashes big payoffs. The relevant thing is the bottom line. Profit minus losses, not just profit. They taught me that in an MBA class.
Since the definition of profit already incorporates losses, that must not have been a top-tier school where you took that class. Or do I have to make 60k after deducting losses twice to be a professional? And those guys making only 45k a year are amateurs, I suppose?

And lemme get this straight as well -- you suspect that "silent experts" are not experts at all but pretenders, but just the same you prefer to remain silent while hinting that you are not only an expert, but have secrets that could put any of ours to shame?

[rrbauer]

Traynor-
Given your propensity to elucidate our faults it's amazing that you think that there is anyone lurking or posting at this board who can provide content worthy of your new site. So why don't you wade back to the shore and go float your agenda at another board. You're history here and there's enough sharks present to keep it that way. Pi** off mutt.

[keilan]

How Right You are Bro, MR ENERGY ........ if Only you weren't Canadian you mite
be our Sec of Energy here. i don't understand 1/2 the concept just like I will
Never understand particle physics. ummmH ... i say, like when I Foolishly took
one innocent course for like 1/2 credit called "Genetics 4 The Layman"---
sounds even more innocent than Derek2U, so I figured as an accounting major,
wtf, get some science in the left brain, well WTF, I got an F & I was pissed.
so, i go to the Dean & say WTF, etc etc, and HE AGREES, thats not a layman
course, its got 3rd yr bio majors & then you, Derek. So, the ph.d prof & me
square off in Deans' office: HE, "Derek seems preOccupied", ME, "Prof picks
his head & has the scabs as Proof and that distracts me." Verdict: I WIN:
the prof MUST give me a chance to get a better grade. Yipeee, drinks On Me.
damnn .......... the solution, over the summer I MUST read these 3 Genetic books &^ write a paper for each one!!! Some solution, like Bush's plan 4 SS?
anyways, that prof finally amended my grade to a C ... gee Thanks guy.


Ya know Pa I still don’t understand ½ what Derek is yakking about but it does have a rhythmic flow. Take this for example “ so I figured as an accounting major, wtf, get some science in the left brain, well WTF, I got an F & I was pissed. so, i go to the Dean & say WTF, etc etc, and HE AGREES, thats not a layman course, its got 3rd yr bio majors & then you”, Derek.

Isn’t that beautiful WTF over

[Tom]

Traynor...stop in to the War Room some weekned - theses guys are giving out their horses BEFORE the races are won-they take the losers wtih the winners, and many a fine double-d winner they have given out.

This I have seen first hand, even handed out a few myself time to time.
So the only "opinions and ramblings" I have seen here are yours.

Step up.

[breakage]

Since the definition of profit already incorporates losses, that must not have been a top-tier school where you took that class. :lol:

[Tee]

Specifically, exactly, what I said involved the fact that very little information is posted. That is a turnoff for newbies; they see a lot of veiled claims, implications, insinuations, but very, very little real information.

As I have stated several times, I have no interest in your "secrets." I think mine are better. My interest is in providing enough information to newbies to get them winning a few races, enjoying the experience, and hopefully putting new life into the game.

Just in case "yours" is not better I won't be giving away too much information, why would I? When I started in this game everyone around me had there own way of doing things, things that I quickly found out were flat out wrong!! Why would any newbie want to learn that type of information that inevitably leads to the poor house? I certainly didn't & won't to this day.

The "newbies" would be better off going to the range & practicing for x amount of time before jumping in and winning a few races. Find out what works, what doesn't, watch a thousand races, actually see for themselves what is going on during a race & formulate an opinion - one of their own!!


The bottom line is a "professional level earning," which right now is running around $60-70,000 a year. Unless you are making that much or more, you are not really a "professional." Everyone makes scores, everyone cashes big payoffs. The relevant thing is the bottom line. Profit minus losses, not just profit. They taught me that in an MBA class.

$60-70,000 a year - one year & considerably less the one before or the one after etc etc. I think u get my drift, u should anyway. Last time I checked a "professional" is particpating in some field of endeavor with the hopes of gain(profit) for livelihood. Is a professional athlete that particpates in a individual sport no longer a professional if he/she has a bad year or years? The same should be said for a individual that earns a living via gambling



Like a couple of posters have already mentioned, jump into a contest, visit the War Room for an afternoon, post some picks before the races are run. Let's see what u have to offer & what the established members of the board have in return.

I've said it before & I've said it again. Anyone can talk a good game in the clubhouse, how bout stepping up to the 1st tee & showing that u truly are a +8 or r u affraid that u are really an 18?

Before u ask - I have done my time tyvm.

[Tee]

"How did u come up with that horse, he got beat 30 lengths last out."
Well I read the racing form from left to right, not right to left & today he was lone speed.

"Man this 1st time starter worked 1:08, he should win this one easy."
Uh, Baffert horses typically to this in the mornings & not necessarily in the afternoons.

"He's the fastest horse in the race, should have no problem today."
Yeah he's the fastest, cuz he's a sprinter & he's going two turns today.

"I just dont see it, I just don't see it, buy hey nice pick!!"
I told you a half hour ago & explained my reasons why & u still don't see?

"That horse can't win, let me just put a line through him in your racing form."
That just cinched him in my mind, let me go to the window!!!

[PaceAdvantage]

Ya know Pa I still don’t understand ½ what Derek is yakking about but it does have a rhythmic flow. Take this for example “ so I figured as an accounting major, wtf, get some science in the left brain, well WTF, I got an F & I was pissed. so, i go to the Dean & say WTF, etc etc, and HE AGREES, thats not a layman course, its got 3rd yr bio majors & then you”, Derek.

Isn’t that beautiful WTF over

It's frustrating, isn't it? What should I do with him?

[keilan]

It's frustrating, isn't it? What should I do with him?



He kind of reminds me of a wayward younger brother who constantly finds himself in every type of jam imaginable. The cops know him by sight, the bikers wanna piece of him, the druglords say he’s behind on his account and each employer explains that things just didn’t work out.

Ohhh and girls luv him cause he’s a bad-boy and they’re going tame him.

I don’t know PA, maybe I can get him into a Buddhist Temple in the Ganges Valley of India for 6 months :bang: :bang:

[PaceAdvantage]

I keep kicking him off, and then he asks to come back, and I let him, even though there has been at least one other poster who has stopped posting here because Derek is around....

You can't understand half the things this guy writes. I'd love to know his real story. This guy has to be a put-on, right? He works for a major finance or brokerage firm, vacations in the Hamptons, but can't put together a sensible paragraph to save his life?

Come on....who's pulling my leg here?

[keilan]

Hey maybe he should have to post from a detention barn. :D

[Tom]

He could then use the handle.........



DerekDtained!

or DDT for short!:bang:

[Kreed]

I've posted Serious thoughts on the economy & on money policy & on SS &
Medicaid etc etc. And I've goofed around too. I write good english mostly.
It's an investment bank not a brokerage house, btw. I love you All ... its my
nature, but I'm gonna hurt Keilan someday. LOL I like it Tom, DDT.

[GameTheory]

I write good english mostly.Then you must do an awful lot of writing elsewhere to make up for all the bad English you "write" here...

[kenwoodallpromos]

Wel I had no idea he was Derek by his good english. Maybe Derek had a course correction.

[Kreed]

I tell what a course correction is: The word isn't Wel, its WeLL. JK, I'm gonna
quit wall st & maybe wrote a book or sumthin, might even teach english
in some far away land.

[keilan]

I'm gonna quit wall st & maybe wrote a book or sumthin, might even teach english in some far away land.


The people of Quebec would love you :D