Afleet Alex: Lack of Early Foot and the Bounce Factor

[Blenheim]

AS the numbers indicate and as the running line shows Afleet Alex likes to come from behind. A good running style when running a Classic distance but I have some concerns about the large field and a clean trip. Ya' gotta figure his jockey has to dodge and weave through the pack come the turn for home and there is the possibility of being pinched, checking up or being blocked. I'd like to see him stalking the pace similar to last years winner, but I don't think he possesses that strategic speed. His lack of early foot is my first concern.

I'm no trainer but IMO AAfleet Alex is justa bit short of top condition. He gets the 9f under him in the Rebel and I figure he is dead fit and he remains fresh; ready to run his best race next time out. He runs in the AD and gets that race under him. Will there be a regression next time out? Will he bounce come the Kentucky Derby? The bounce factor is my second concern.

In the next two I'd like to see him use just enough energy to win; no equalling or setting new track records. Hopefully he'll come to the series still fresh and w/enough in the tank to win the Derby and make a run for the Crown.

[cj]

Any horse winning six furlong races, regardless of style, isn't going to be a one run closer at 1 1/4 miles. He has tactical speed if the jockey chooses to use it.

[DerbyTrail]

And keep in mind that Johnny V. will be on him the next three starts.. That should factor into his pace style approach in the Derby after Velasquez has had a chance to get to know the colt in the two races.. Not to slam Rose, but let's be honest.. Those two rides in the last two juvy starts were plain terrible. And he almost got him beat in the Sanford as well...

[Blenheim]

It will be interesting to see how JV adjusts to the horse and how the trainer instructs him to ride the race; most certainly a positive jock switch. I'll be watching for the strategic speed.

The Rebel should be a good one, although not as good as one would hope w/RH well short of 100%. I'm interested to see how "Rocky" reacts when AA comes to him. He should run w/him for about a sixteenth just for fun then kick up a little bit of dust, just enough for Rocky to remember him come the AD.

[Lasix1]

I'm no trainer but IMO AAfleet Alex is justa bit short of top condition. He gets the 9f under him in the Rebel and I figure he is dead fit and he remains fresh; ready to run his best race next time out. He runs in the AD and gets that race under him. Will there be a regression next time out? Will he bounce come the Kentucky Derby? The bounce factor is my second concern.


You may very well be right about AA, Blenheim, but the Rebel Stakes will be run here Saturday at 1 1/16 not 9f. Does that alter your opinion?

[Elysium Stables]

I think alot of people will be suprised at the power of AA after the rebel. Even though he is rated number 1 in alot of derby wagering pools he is underestimated by alot of racing fans. Take this into consideration, he is a may baby and if you were impressed with his athletisism at all last year you are in for a treat. I saw him in person last week and he has filled out beautifully he looks like a different horse. His stalking approach in most of his races were instructional from the trainer, save the juvenile in which he stumbled out of the gate and was shuffled back due to a bad decision on behalf of Rose. This is a horse that can come from off the pace or be right there early, as stated earlier he has broken 2 stakes records in sprints.

[Lasix1]

I think alot of people will be suprised at the power of AA after the rebel.
I couldn't agree with you more and made a post to that effect after the 6f Mountain Valley. I was at the track for that race and saw him up close. It was nothing more than a public workout with a $50,000 purse. He is everything you say he is. The jockey change, as others have noted, is a big plus. He is much the best of the 5-horse Rebel field and I will be very surprised if he doesn't blow their doors off on Saturday. I'll be there.

[Blenheim]

Indeed Lasix1 the Rebel is 8.5f, thanks for the correction.


Cool you and Elysium have seen him close up and he's everything I thought and more; priceless information. If possible give us more info on his prerace demeanor and his conformation. How does he act and how does he look?

Hopefully he'll blow the doors off of em', but I want him to save as much as possible for the Triple.

[Lasix1]

Indeed Lasix1 the Rebel is 8.5f, thanks for the correction.

Cool you and Elysium have seen him close up and he's everything I thought and more; priceless information. If possible give us more info on his prerace demeanor and his conformation. How does he act and how does he look?
Hopefully he'll blow the doors off of em', but I want him to save as much as possible for the Triple.
I'll be at Oaklawn leaning over the rail Saturday and will report back to you that evening with every detail I can think of about the Rebel. Someone questioned the wraps he wore on all four legs during the Mountain Valley and I'll report on that for sure, along with the things you requested: pre-race demeanor, conformation, warm-up, how he looks after the race, etc. Judging from what I saw before, during, and after the Mountain Valley, if you look up "Perfect Looking Race Horse" in the dictionary, you'll find AA's picture. Only problem? He'll go off at 4-5 with Rockport Harbor the second choice at about 9-5. Not much of a betting opportunity. No matter. AA will win. Lots of crow for me to eat if he doesn't! :)

[Blenheim]

Dont' feel alone, I'll be eatin' my fair share of crow too should he not come in. I've gotta think he's gonna win it; they're gunning for that 5M should he stay sound and win the AD and the KD.

Thanks, I'll be lookin forward to your post race report.

[Doc]

From what I've been reading, it seems like most people think the Rebel will come down to either Afleet Alex or Rockport Harbor. Not too many are giving Greater Good the respect he deserves. The way I see the Rebel finish, it's Greater Good over AA over Rockport Harbor. Bad rides or not, AA has never won beyond seven furlongs. I like Rocky down the road in the Ark. Derby if his feet remain healthy. But then again last year Servis was warning that Smarty Jones wasn't going to be 100 percent for the Southwest, and his class got him home in front.

[Blenheim]

Best of luck to Greater Good.


Hey Lasix1, just a note. I've got this thing about conformation. It goes like this: I've noticed some of the great Classic horses have a level line from their withers to their rump; just straight across, no slump between the two points. If you can get to the paddock before the they saddle him up, take a look.

[Bobby]

AA is the 3/5 favorite. Don't know about that. I'll Take Rockport.

[OTM Al]

Greater Good (122) is giving weight to both Afleet Alex (117) and Rocky (119) according to DRFs entries. Don't seem quite fair....

[Lasix1]

Thanks, guys for all the thoughts on the Rebel. Doc thinks Greater Good will get 'em, but not if you believe in Figs. He's at least 20 pts. deficient. He got an 85 Beyer in the Southwest Stakes and the rest of his races are right around that figure. AA has several consecutive Beyers over 100 and his Fig in the Mountain Valley was 106. GG will need an awful lot of improvement to even get a sniff. I think his running style disadvantages him too. He's an out-of-the-clouds closer.

Bobby is going with Rocky if AA goes off at 3/5. 3/5 was just my guess in a 5-horse field off the numbers, but I think it will be close to right. Rocky only has one Beyer over a 100 and that was his 105 in the Remsen and that race was about 5 months ago. Meanwhile, lots of foot problems and his trainer says he'll only be 65-70% for the Rebel. If he gets to 2-1 on the Board he'll still be an underlay in my book. I'll have to look at the pace scenario carefully. The two other horses in the race are an unknown and Rocky may or may not get an easy lead.

Blenheim has some interesting ideas about classic horse conformation and I'll check for you and report back. Never thought of that. By the way, no 5M bonus this year. Cella did that last year to publicize Oaklawn's 100th year celebration and never dreamed Smarty would come along and snap it up. No bonus this year, although there's an interesting story about last year. Cella insured half of the 5M before the season started, and the week of the Derby he got some insurance company (suckers) to take the other half. Than he goes to Louisville and is so certain by that time that Smarty will win that he makes a sizeable wager on Smarty. He's screaming like a railbird for Smarty coming down the stretch, and when Smarty wins the insurance companies take the hit, and even after paying the premiums, I'm told that Cella made a nice profit on the deal. Now, there's a smart businessman!

OTM AI raises the question as to why Greater Good gives away weight to the rest of the field. I don't know the answer to that interesting question. Maybe I can find out.

Will report back after the race. :)

[Lasix1]

Here's CJ's Figs for the Rebel Stakes. See what I mean about Greater Good and Rocky being up against it? I suppose Rocky could wire the field if he gets away with soft fractions and runs back to his career best, but off a 4-month lay-off with bad feet? Jazzy Gallop could put a little heat on Rocky, but Batson Challenge and Copy My Notes are just along for the ride. Greater Good won't get into the race. AA is dead fit. What's there not to like? That's my story and I'm stickin' with it. :)

Oaklawn Race # 10 8.5f Dirt 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Home
__________________________________________________ ______________________________


AFLEET ALEX PS
OP 03/05/2005 6.0| 110 105 101 105| 109| 105*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LS 10/30/2004 8.5| 99 100 98 99| 101| 103
Bel 10/09/2004 8.5| 95 100 94 100| 105| 104
Sar 08/21/2004 7.0| 106 89 99 89| 88| 98*
Sar 07/29/2004 6.0| 84 94 84 94| 100| 96*
Del 07/12/2004 5.5| 76 89 76 89| 96| 90*
Del 06/26/2004 5.5| 56 73 56 73| 82| 73*

ROCKPORT HARBOR E
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aqu 11/27/2004 9.0| 103 101 103 101| 100| 105*
Aqu 11/02/2004 8.0| 88 82 88 82| 79| 88*
Pha 10/12/2004 6.5| 72 84 72 84| 88| 82*
Pha 09/12/2004 5.5| 75 69 75 69| 66| 77*

COPY MY NOTES P
OP 02/19/2005 8.0| 89 83 86 78| 75| 83
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 11/13/2004 8.5| 90 86 89 86| 84| 90*
Kee 10/22/2004 8.5| 77 77 76 69| 66| 76
RD 09/06/2004 8.5| 76 82 61 68| 72| 72
AP 08/01/2004 5.5| 78 80 56 60| 62| 66
CD 07/05/2004 6.0| 92 79 77 69| 65| 76
CD 06/05/2004 5.5| 66 67 63 67| 70| 73*

JAZZY GALLOP EP
FG 02/18/2005 8.5| 86 84 81 84| 86| 85*
FG 01/29/2005 8.5| 84 85 83 85| 87| 86*
FG 01/08/2005 8.2| 82 78 78 78| 79| 81
FG 12/09/2004 8.2| 64 75 57 70| 77| 70
Haw 11/19/2004 8.5| 77 77 60 66| 70| 68
Haw 10/31/2004 8.5| 72 74 66 71| 74| 73
Haw 10/08/2004 8.5| 86 81 78 75| 74| 81
AP 09/18/2004 6.0| 64 80 27 52| 64| 54
AP 07/23/2004 5.5| 62 71 55 42| 36| 53
AP 07/02/2004 5.0| 58 61 58 49| 45| 60

BATSON CHALLENGE EP
OP 02/20/2005 8.5| 87 79 87 79| 75| 84*
OP 01/22/2005 8.0| 87 88 75 70| 68| 72
TP 12/08/2004 8.0| 66 64 64 64| 65| 67*
CD 11/06/2004 7.0| 80 79 51 64| 69| 67
Kee 10/15/2004 7.0| 81 79 51 55| 57| 59

GREATER GOOD S
OP 02/19/2005 8.0| 89 83 81 83| 83| 83*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 11/27/2004 8.5| 88 90 75 90| 98| 90*
CD 11/06/2004 8.0| 95 93 80 83| 85| 85
TP 09/18/2004 8.5| 102 82 85 82| 78| 84*
ElP 08/07/2004 7.0| 52 70 47 70| 76| 70*
ElP 07/24/2004 6.0| 76 72 36 60| 70| 60

[Speed Figure]

Here's CJ's Figs for the Rebel Stakes. See what I mean about Greater Good and Rocky being up against it? I suppose Rocky could wire the field if he gets away with soft fractions and runs back to his career best, but off a 4-month lay-off with bad feet? Jazzy Gallop could put a little heat on Rocky, but Batson Challenge and Copy My Notes are just along for the ride. Greater Good won't get into the race. AA is dead fit. What's there not to like? That's my story and I'm stickin' with it. :)

Oaklawn Race # 10 8.5f Dirt 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Home
__________________________________________________ ______________________________


AFLEET ALEX PS
OP 03/05/2005 6.0| 110 105 101 105| 109| 105*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LS 10/30/2004 8.5| 99 100 98 99| 101| 103
Bel 10/09/2004 8.5| 95 100 94 100| 105| 104
Sar 08/21/2004 7.0| 106 89 99 89| 88| 98*
Sar 07/29/2004 6.0| 84 94 84 94| 100| 96*
Del 07/12/2004 5.5| 76 89 76 89| 96| 90*
Del 06/26/2004 5.5| 56 73 56 73| 82| 73*

ROCKPORT HARBOR E
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aqu 11/27/2004 9.0| 103 101 103 101| 100| 105*
Aqu 11/02/2004 8.0| 88 82 88 82| 79| 88*
Pha 10/12/2004 6.5| 72 84 72 84| 88| 82*
Pha 09/12/2004 5.5| 75 69 75 69| 66| 77*

COPY MY NOTES P
OP 02/19/2005 8.0| 89 83 86 78| 75| 83
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 11/13/2004 8.5| 90 86 89 86| 84| 90*
Kee 10/22/2004 8.5| 77 77 76 69| 66| 76
RD 09/06/2004 8.5| 76 82 61 68| 72| 72
AP 08/01/2004 5.5| 78 80 56 60| 62| 66
CD 07/05/2004 6.0| 92 79 77 69| 65| 76
CD 06/05/2004 5.5| 66 67 63 67| 70| 73*

JAZZY GALLOP EP
FG 02/18/2005 8.5| 86 84 81 84| 86| 85*
FG 01/29/2005 8.5| 84 85 83 85| 87| 86*
FG 01/08/2005 8.2| 82 78 78 78| 79| 81
FG 12/09/2004 8.2| 64 75 57 70| 77| 70
Haw 11/19/2004 8.5| 77 77 60 66| 70| 68
Haw 10/31/2004 8.5| 72 74 66 71| 74| 73
Haw 10/08/2004 8.5| 86 81 78 75| 74| 81
AP 09/18/2004 6.0| 64 80 27 52| 64| 54
AP 07/23/2004 5.5| 62 71 55 42| 36| 53
AP 07/02/2004 5.0| 58 61 58 49| 45| 60

BATSON CHALLENGE EP
OP 02/20/2005 8.5| 87 79 87 79| 75| 84*
OP 01/22/2005 8.0| 87 88 75 70| 68| 72
TP 12/08/2004 8.0| 66 64 64 64| 65| 67*
CD 11/06/2004 7.0| 80 79 51 64| 69| 67
Kee 10/15/2004 7.0| 81 79 51 55| 57| 59

GREATER GOOD S
OP 02/19/2005 8.0| 89 83 81 83| 83| 83*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CD 11/27/2004 8.5| 88 90 75 90| 98| 90*
CD 11/06/2004 8.0| 95 93 80 83| 85| 85
TP 09/18/2004 8.5| 102 82 85 82| 78| 84*
ElP 08/07/2004 7.0| 52 70 47 70| 76| 70*
ElP 07/24/2004 6.0| 76 72 36 60| 70| 60

[Blenheim]

Good numbers.

Class of the race. If all goes well he should win this one w/a hand ride. I'd like see a couple pops of the whip at the top of the stretch and the rest just cruise control.

[Speed Figure]

Here are some figures I made that are some what like Quirin numbers.

Afleet Alex P4 6/5
ES/PF LP SF CR
05mar05 OP 6.0F 98 113 108 94
30oct04 LS 8.5F 86 104 98 148
09oct04 BEL 8.5F 97 112 107 112
21aug04 SAR 7.0S 101 98 99 98
29jul04 SAR 6.0F 96 107 105 93


Rockport Harbor E8 8/5
ES/PF LP SF CR
27nov04 AQU 9.0F 98 102 101 96
02nov04 AQU 8.0F 113 95 101 92
12oct04 PHA 6.5F 101 104 103 88
12sep04 PHA 5.5F 102 96 98 87


Copy My Notes EP7 15/1
ES/PF LP SF CR
19feb05 OP 8.0W 96 96 96 90
13nov04 CD 8.5F 91 100 97 87
22oct04 KEE 8.5F 91 88 89 86
06sep04 RD 8.5F 66 104 89 92
01aug04 AP 5.5F 89 86 90 85



Jazzy Gallop EP6 8/1
ES/PF LP SF CR
18feb05 FG 8.5F 82 107 99 88
29jan05 FG 8.5F 84 99 94 86
08jan05 FG 8.2F 89 96 94 86
09dec04 FG 8.2G 84 97 93 86
19nov04 HAW 8.5S 78 88 85 83



Batson Challenge EP4 20/1
ES/PF LP SF CR
20feb05 OP 8.5F 100 89 93 85
22jan05 OP 8.0F 88 91 90 84
08dec04 TP 8.0F 87 96 93 87
06nov04 CD 7.0F 84 82 83 83
15oct04 KEE 7.0M 87 75 79 81



Greater Good S0 7/2
ES/PF LP SF CR
19feb05 OP 8.0W 85 109 101 92
27nov04 CD 8.5F 90 109 103 98
06nov04 CD 8.0F 90 99 96 91
18sep04 TP 8.5F 82 103 96 88
07aug04 ELP 7.0F 89 101 97 88

[Bobby]

Rockport leads from start to finish. They won't catch him.

(I might eat em though)

[kev]

I like greater good to be right in the mix of things at the end. Afleet Alex is so fast on the sheets, there's a good chance of him bouncing and still win the race.

[Show Me the Wire]

I am going to wear my Oaklawn Jockey Club hat, while watching AA win the Rebel. Wish I could be there leaning over the rail with Lasix1, after eating some greasy chili in the jocks' room and downing a dozen or so oysters at the oyster bar.

Hey Lasix1 have a few oysters for me, will ya.

[Lasix1]

I am going to wear my Oaklawn Jockey Club hat, while watching AA win the Rebel. Wish I could be there leaning over the rail with Lasix1, after eating some greasy chili in the jocks' room and downing a dozen or so oysters at the oyster bar.

Hey Lasix1 have a few oysters for me, will ya.
I sure will, SMTW! Sounds like you've been here before and I wish you could be here with me tomorrow. Only problem is that with the record Rebel day crowd and the good weather being forecast for tomorrow, it may be hard to get anywhere near the Oyster Bar. The lines will be long and the crowd will be rowdy. These Razorbacks know how to have a good time at Oaklawn.

But I'll get there early enough to have a dozen for the both of us and watch Afleet Alex get the job done.

I've gone out so far out on a limb predicting that AA will win, that if he doesn't, it won't be oysters I'll be eating---it'll be crow and humble pie. :)

[Show Me the Wire]

Yes. I have been there several times. Great racing fans and great racing surface too.

The only place I have not been there is in the winner's circle.

Have fun tomorrow and don't worry about eating crow.

[how2020]

One of the few Multi-Strats users still around for what its worth-
Order of MS weight and picks

Afleet Alex - Wgt=137 Top Picks=8 53%
Rockport Harbor- Wgt=75 Top Picks=3 20%
Jazzy Gallop - Wgt=39 Top Picks=2 13%

[Blenheim]

I figure if he runs his best race he gets the 8.5 in 1:41 n/c. Hopefully, he won't have to run that fast to get these.

[grahors]

Figs are only good if you run to them..I agree with DOC. A bounce for AA and the Rock needs a race. I pick Greater Good over AA and then the Rock.
That's why they call it a race.
Grahors

[Show Me the Wire]

Out of curiosity. How does a horse bounce off a non-effort? Afleet Alex ran a race, prepping for the race coming up which is the second off his extended layoff. A bounce is as I understand it means a horse will go backwards after a peak physical effort. Are you saying the prep race at 3/4's is a peak physical effort for Afleet Alex?

[lsbets]

Out of the three horses in this race, I only have one on my short list for the Derby - Afleet Alex. I don't think it really matters if he wins or loses today or in the Ark Derby. As long as he runs well I'll be happy. I think RH is a toss based on only 2 preps if he goes today, and GG doesn't have the figs for the Derby. In my book, the list of contenders is down to: Afleet Alex, High Fly, Going Wild, and Sun King. Throw in Sweet Catomine if she runs, but I'm guessing she'll go in the Oaks.

And I agree with SMTW - I always understood a bounce to be a letdown off of a top effort, and from everything I have read AA's last race was just a work in front of a crowd with some other horses on the track.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Oaklawn is slow. I'll take the 3 times stakes winner who won at this slow track recently.
AA and RH will sink in the quicksand and never know what hit them since they have not run in so long.

[Show Me the Wire]

Do not like the excessive head bobbing in the post parade by AA and when he stand still seems to try and shift weight off his right leg.

[cj]

Nice observation. No way I was betting that race, but had I read this earlier, maybe I change my mind. Hope you cashed in this opinion! He definitely ran like something was wrong.

[kev]

I didn't think I was going to get those odds on GG, 7-2ML.....off at 9-2. Nice little run. :)

[grahors]

I used the wrong terminology...I didn't mean "bounce". I meant that I didn't think AA would run to his previous figs. Sorry.
I did pick it right.

[Show Me the Wire]

cj:

Posted my observation late as I am at the mercy of TVG. Listening to Lyons say how good AA looks and then seeing the head bobbing.

Yes, looks like some physical problems, as soon as he switched to his right lead, he stopped running.

I have to say Valuist pointed out the wearing of front wraps in his last race and I did down play it. Looks like Valuist was right. Another problem Rocky showed up with fronts today.

[kev]

Looks like 6 min. to post for the San F. I'll take GIACOMO has a pattern almost like Greater goods, thing is I'm not betting GIACOMO.....guess that means he'll win.

[Show Me the Wire]

grahors:

I agree you were right. What observation prior to the race convinced you AA would run poorly today? I am curious.

I concluded he would run poorly while observing his phisical actions in the post parade and subsequent actions prior to going into the starting gate. For me I stayed away because it looked like he had some physical issues today, that is why I made the post before the race.

[Show Me the Wire]

Over at the TG site, those rats that snitched on pacefigure.com, claims it was a bounce. Looked to me like a poor effort related to soundness.

[cj]

Bounce my ass, something looked amiss the way he packed it in.

[Blenheim]

READ over at Thoroughbred Time that Ritchey found AA has a lung infection ...
:bang: ; horseracing, tough game. Time for the Rebel: 1:44.92.

[Lasix1]

Dear Blenhem, SMTW, Grahors, Kev, Valuist, CJ and everyone from the AA bounce thread,

Here's my report from the rail and from the latest post-race news on the Rebel Stakes.

38,072 fans packed Oaklawn under perfect weather conditions. I arrive 2 1/2 hours early so I can eat 2 dozen oysters as I promised SMTW I would. A dozen for each of us. They were sensational.

The six-horse field all looked great in the post parade and warm-up. The worst-looking horse was Greater Good, who was nervous and had kidney sweat running down his legs. Turns out he was just anxious for the gate to open. Afleet Alex looked like a million dollars, but looks were deceiving today as I'll mention later if you haven't heard already. Rockport Harbor was the last to arrive on the track after a slight delay, but finally emerged and looked great. He had wraps on all four legs as did AA. At post time, AA is 3/5, Rocky is 8/5, Greater Good is 9/2 and the rest of the field is long, long, long.

The start was a mess. Rocky broke in a tangle and was shuffled back. Greater Good, a confirmed closer from the outside post is gunned for the lead, but is taken back later. But by the first call, Rockport Harbor has made the lead and is pulling away. Afleet Alex is in his characteristic stalking position, and by the half has pulled within two lengths of the lead, a perfect position from which to strike. From there the Rebel looks like the two-horse race everyone predicted. I'm getting a little worried, since Rocky has gotten away with soft fractions of 24, :47 1/5 and 1:12 2/5 and I think he may go wire-to-wire.

In the stretch, things change rapidly. Rocky keeps going, but at the 3/16 pole, Afleet Alex begins a slow fade that will be responsible for his seemingly inexplicable last place finish. When I see him backing up, I look like a cheerleader at an accident. I look up on the roof for the camera and wave for help from my friend SMTW, but he's no where to be seen, so it must have been a a one-way feed. Suddenly, Greater Good, the horse I said was too slow to run with these, turns on the afterburner and gets by Rocky at the wire, while 65-1 long shot Batson Challenge inherits a crumbling pace and gets up for 3rd. The final time of 144 4/5 is really slow on a good day when some fast times were posted earlier, so I'll be interested to see what kind of figs CJ gives Greater Good.

After the race Rocky and the others run out nicely, but AA is stopped soon after the wire and I'm worried sick that he might be hurt. Not so. BRIS reports that he was scoped right after the race, and his Trainer, Tim Richey, reports that they found a lung infection and he is being treated with antibiotics.

So, my heavily touted 3/5 favorite finishes last. Greater Good blows by them all. Rocky holds on for second, but given the slow fractions and a dispeptic Afleet Alex, he should have easily dispensed with the rest of the field. My guess is the final time figure will be quite slow which, IMHO, is the only way Greater Good could win. But congratulations anyway, Grahors and Kev, excuses aside you were right and I was wrong, even if my horse did came down with the crud right before the race.

What this race does to the 3-year-old picture is anyone's guess.

But I won't hold this one against AA. I came down with something this winter and couldn't even walk to the mailbox, much less win the Rebel Stakes. If you bet with me, my apologies for my certainty about AA, but lung infections aren't on my handicapping checklist.

If anyone knows whether crow tastes better with mustard or catsup, be sure to let me know. It's in the oven right now. :) :bang:

[Show Me the Wire]

lasix1:

Glad you enjoyed the oysters and I wore my cap as promised. I saw you at the rail and I posted a quick note on PA's bb, about AA's pre-race post parade and warm-up. I assume you couldn't get to the computer due to the size of the crowd.

I don't expect you to eat crow with either mustard or ketchup. You can not predict a lung infection. However, I think something more is amiss and I hope I am wrong. Looking at the replays AA seemed relunctant to switch to his right lead (did not show his usual smooth action) and as soon as he switched over he quit running.

But if I would eat crow I would use a good rub and barbeuque it.

[Speed Figure]

On my figures AA went up and down a lot. From the bottom up he was. 105 - 99 - 107 -98 -108. It was like each time he ran 105 or better he went down 6 points or more.

[Lasix1]

SMTW,

I've GOT to get me a wireless computer to get those last minute warm-up reports from you. Unfortunately, I'm crammed onto the rail with thousands of other people and the rail at Oaklawn has this weird inverted ledge, so like my Rebel prediction, I'm sure I would have dropped the computer into horse poop trying to download your reports.

I'm 5 minutes into this gourmet meal of crow and humble pie. Ugh! Why didn't I think of the dry-rub barbeque solution? Your suggestion will go into my recipe box for the next time. And I'm sure they'll be a next time.... ;)

[kenwoodallpromos]

congratulations to those who, like me, picked Greater Good!
The track workout speed was a 9, almost as slow as my 10 point system goes.
There was a light rain at Hot Springs this morning but was to get to 70 degrees.
Fast horses do not win races; the first horse across the wire does.

[Show Me the Wire]

Kenwoodallpromos:

Yes, congratulations on picking Greater Good, one of the three logical selections. Even more logical than Rocky, since Rocky was not fit enough because of his tender hoofs. If AA didn't fire today Greater Good was the logical choice and AA didn't fire. Why, don't know, could be the lung infection or other physical problems. What I do know, I did not like AA today after observing the post parade and the warm-ups regardless how the track played.

Strange though; Greater Good took the early lead on a slow track relenquishing the lead to Rocky on the backside and AA tracked off Rocky's pace. AA never looked comfortable though. It would seem AA got the type of trip needed by your track measurements. Horse racing is sure a strange thing.

So yes great handicapping.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I guess since Rockport tangled, maybe no one else wanted the lead. News reports on the workouts for AA was slow, and Rockport was getting over a bruised foot and was "rank" (Servis), slowing down during the 7f workout.
4 months off did not look good for Rockport with bruise; I wonder why AA did not run in over 4 months and was sent to LS for the last race.
With the lung infection, it sounds like bad weather does not agree with AA; slow tracks do not agree with many young frontrunners.
I have been for quite awhile trying to convince posters that "fast" dry tracks are not always the same speed and that the speed of the track matters.
My favorite horses are usually ones that run even fractions.
I hope other big races have fuller fields.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Anyone know why AA was put in this race? I assume it was strictly a prep "workout" and did he have any real competition? Thanks.

[Show Me the Wire]

4 months off did not look good for Rockport with bruise; I wonder why AA did not run in over 4 months and was sent to LS for the last race.........

I have been for quite awhile trying to convince posters that "fast" dry tracks are not always the same speed and that the speed of the track matters.
My favorite horses are usually ones that run even fractions.
I hope other big races have fuller fields.

Kenwoodallpromos:

With respect AA's last race was two weeks ago at Oaklawn in the Mountain Valley Stakes. He did not race at LS in his last race. His last race was a prep at Oaklawn for today's race, the Rebel.

I agree with you fast dry tracks are not always the same speed and I think the majority of posters here at PA probably hold that same opinion.

Interesting enough my favorite horses are the ones that run even fractions too, but I prefer quick even fractions over slow even fractions.

[Blenheim]

I'll quote a post from a different forum, the post is by DonnyEss:

"The seeming poor performance by AA should be tossed especially if he returns to 1-turn distances. AA may not have been well meant for that race. AA took too much money in the show pool, something bettors should always be watching for when there's an odds-on favorite. Racetracks hate lock-ups in the strait pools when there's a strong favorite."

IMO, Mr. Ess is right on target [except for the distance thing]. Indeed most of us have seen that stunt before and it's a shame even at lower levels of racing. It's particularly shameful it happened in the Rebel w/millions watching.

I took a few nibbles of crow mixed w/humble pie and figured, well ... I think I'll freeze this "good stuff" until I get over this lung infection! :lol:

I'm still w/Alex and continue to believe he is the best of his crop ... looks like he'll have to prove it come the Derby!


By the way, thanks Lasix1 for the post race report.

[Lasix1]

You're most welcome for the report, Blenheim. I'm not getting off AA just yet. He certainly had a legitimate excuse. They're treating him with antibiotics for five days and then plan to put him back in training.

You might be interested to know that the Arkansas paper this morning had a story quoting the mutuel's manager at Oaklawn as saying the wacky payouts in the show pool for the Rebel were due in part to a bridgejumper at one of the New York OTB outlets dropping $100,000 on Alfeet Alex to show.

There was no word on which bridge he jumped off of. ;)

[Blenheim]

Lasix1,

Got a good chortle out of that bridgejumper thing!

The "seeming" lung infection may prove a positive: no bounce from peaking too soon, we've seen the strategic speed and the futures book may rise. I think this Derby Trail may prove to be a most interesting one.

Considering the slow fractions, the slow race times and the low performance figures, I've still gotta believe AA is the one to beat ... he has gotta prove it.

[Elysium Stables]

About AA,

1. The lung infection is the reason he didn't fire and he ran an amazing race for a horse that couldn't breath. He was coughing ALOT when he came back to the barn (I was there). Several other of Ritchey's horses also have the same problem and the next barn over has 16 horses with lung infections. This is due to the seasonal temperature change, the pollen in the air, and the fact that these are young horses w/o a fully developed immune system.

2. If you watch the race replay even though Rocky was 3-4 lengths in front of the feild there were running very slow fractions, 24..47..etc. This is why Velasquez is riding Afleet Alex he has a great sense of pace and he knew they were going slow and wasn't going to let Rocky run away with the race, so he began to move up and challenge him and where Alex was about to blow by Rocky was when he started holding his breath, if you watch the race this is when Velasquez stops hitting him and basically just gallops out. Good thing too because alex wanted to run holding his breath :D .

3. Those who think Alex won't go 2 turns need to pay attention to 2 things, 1, the juvenile last year where he got a horrific trip and ran very well despite it and 2 his training schedule, Alex trains twice a day he goes out and jogs early and then goes back out again later in the morning. He has the endurance of an arabian trust me (better speed though lol).

Although my opinion is slightly biast I think if you really know racing and how fragile horses are you'll agree with these points, if not maybe the derby will prove it. Hope so :)

also AA has now bucked all the derby "jinxs" i.e. the juvenile, 2 year old of the year and pre derby pool favorite

[PaceAdvantage]

I asked someone today who knows the physicality of horses much better than I do, how a trainer MISSES a lung infection BEFORE a race, but only discovers it AFTER A race. I have seen this a ton of times over the years....horses run like crap, and after the race, we find out they are sick. Anyway, this person told me that it's easy to see how this could happen (seemed fine before the race, but sick after).

But, I still have a hard time buying that a horse can go into a race seemingly 100% healthy, but by the end of the race, he's hacking away and is found to have a lung infection. In this day and age, you'd think a lung infection would be easy to detect pre-race.

[Show Me the Wire]

First let me say I hope all it is, is a lung infection.

PA.

Very difficult to tell about lung infections prior to a race, unless it is already in full force. The exertion from racing brings out the infection in full force during the race. Unfortunately, horses can not speak our language and tell us before they go out and race that they do not feel 100% or there is a little tightness in the chest.

Whatever, AA looked extremely uncomfortable during the post parade. Could have been the lung infection, maybe, but remember he was on an extended layoff. Layoff could have been a result of a physical problem, chip, stress fracture, etc or just tired.

[Lasix1]

I agree with Blenheim's observation about Afleet Alex, now confirmed by the rep from Elysium Stables. The weather here has been the worst I've seen in years. It's basically done nothing but rain in Hot Springs since last October. High humity, high pollen counts, see-sawing temperatures. Wouldn't surprise me a bit to discover that a lot of horses have lung problems.

CJ also said in one of the first posts after the Rebel---and before we heard about the lung infection---that when a horse stops as dramatically as AA did, something physical happened. Even after he stopped breathing he still continued to the wire. I'm with Blenheim and Elysium, and can hardly wait for the Arkansas Derby where we'll have a chance to see the recuperated Alex at 1 1/8 miles.

He wasn't exactly running off an extended lay-off, SMTW. Remember the Mountain Valley two weeks ago? He ran a 107 and won $30,000 beating that field and looked very good doing it. No sign of a lung infection then.

I don't know about PA's question about how a trainer could miss such a thing. Would love to hear Elysium Stables comment on that.

[Show Me the Wire]

lasix1:

I meant prior to the Mountain Valley. Thanks for the clarification.

[Lasix1]

SMTW,

You're right--he WAS off for a long time before the Mountain Valley. I wonder if his connections were just giving him a long rest after a grueling 2-year-old season, or if something else was wrong? I've been wondering about those front wraps since you and others mentioned them. I understood them during the Mountain Valley which was just a tune-up, but was very surprised when he ran with them in the Rebel on Saturday. Maybe Elysium Stables can comment on that, too.

[JPinMaryland]

just from personal experience many times I have gone running not feeling 100% and after running, just feel wiped out. Then the onset of a cold. I guess its from the stress on the lungs that really brings an infection out in full force.


BTW, what did Blenheim mean when he says:

"Indeed most of us have seen that stunt before and it's a shame even at lower levels of racing. It's particularly shameful it happened in the Rebel w/millions watching"

What's that in reference to?

Speaking of being sick, anybody else catch that nasty stomach virus that's going around the east coast? I finally got it on sat. after wife and baby got it. It's nasty, couldnt get out of bed for a day.

[Bobby]

yea, it's like going for a jog in the springtime. You're fine beforehand but during and afterwards the jog your sinuses give you fits.

[Lasix1]

just from personal experience many times I have gone running not feeling 100% and after running, just feel wiped out. Then the onset of a cold. I guess its from the stress on the lungs that really brings an infection out in full force.
JPin,
The morning paper here in Arkansas reports that this is exactly what happened to AA. His connections said they scoped him on Wednesday before the race and his lungs were clear, but "the infection was incubating and came to a head because of race-induced stress."

This may also be an answer to the question raised by PA and others about why they didn't know about the lung infection before the race. Five days on antibiotics and his trainer says they will put him back in training. The headline this morning over this story read "Alex still going forward after finishing last."

[Valuist]

PA-

I agree 100%. Why did Ritchie miss the infection in the first place? Awfully convenient to use it after the race.

I'm not redboarding on this: I said something didn't seem right after the Mountain Valley. The fact that he was there seemed odd; nobody felt he could've feared Greater Good, the horse he dodged by passing the Southwest. The same horse who beat him in the Rebel. I didn't get to see the Rebel but I'll check the charts to see if he still had the fronts on. Definitely was not a good sign to see them in the Mountain Valley after he had never wore them before.

[Bobby]

I still think the top two at OP are AA and RH. You have to toss AA's race. I thought RH ran a good race. I mean with all the problems he's had that was a good race. Greater Good seems to be like a victory gallop type. I don't think he can win KY derby and doubt he'll win the Ark derby.

[Elysium Stables]

Yes, he was scoped 3 days prior to the race and lasix pretty much nailed it in his post. Some trainers like Zito scope horses the day off and some don't its just a personal preference. And thank god it was only a lung infection and not something more serious like bleeding if you could pick a problem to have that would be it. It will be cleared up in a matter of days. As for the whole thing on the fronts wraps, I actually asked Ritchey about this and they are only precautionary they don't effect his preformance so why wouldn't he protect his investment. And on the Alex missing the southwest all I can say is that something was thought to be wrong and turned out not to be. I was severely dissapointed after the rebel knowing that AA could have won handily, they went in 1.44, not fast by any means. And hopefully come the Arkansas derby you will all see what this colt can really do, I hope to.

[PaceAdvantage]

Elysium Stables, just a quick THANK YOU for giving us a little bit of insight into what is going on out there!

[Jeff P]

posted by Lasix1-You might be interested to know that the Arkansas paper this morning had a story quoting the mutuel's manager at Oaklawn as saying the wacky payouts in the show pool for the Rebel were due in part to a bridgejumper at one of the New York OTB outlets dropping $100,000 on Alfeet Alex to show. I was over at a buddy's house on SAT afternoon and we were both amazed at the show pool. As they went to the gate Bris Supertote was displaying about 742k total in the show pool with over 700k of that on AA to show. Evidently there was more than one bridgejumper involved. Ouch.

[Tee]

But, I still have a hard time buying that a horse can go into a race seemingly 100% healthy, but by the end of the race, he's hacking away and is found to have a lung infection. In this day and age, you'd think a lung infection would be easy to detect pre-race.

Let me tell u a little story bout the time I had "walking" pneumonia. I seemed perfectly healthy probably 90%+ of the time, except for one thing & SMTW pointed u in the right direction - EXERTION!!

I coughed my head off everytime I would go to basketball practice. After a few minutes I was fine, the next day sos etc, etc.

Finally after a few days, upon exertion I developed a wheezing sound in my chest & it was off to the doctors & a chest x-ray & some antibiotics to clear me up.

Now if I had not been an athlete & just walked around doing nothing I might have seemed 100% healthy & eventually would have had a much more severe problem.

So may have Afleet Alex.

[Blenheim]

First a fine thanks to Elysium for the inside scoop, priceless. Tell us more about how it is you're so close to the inside. Before you do that here is a quote from my favorite movie the Gladiator:

" ... Three weeks from now I will be harvesting my crops, imagine where you will be and it will be so. Hold the line, stay with me. If you find yourself alone riding in green fields with the sun on your face do not be troubled, for you are in Elysium and you're already dead! Alas ... What we do in life, echoes in eternity."

Maximus
Commander of the Armies of the North
General of the Felix Legions

__________________________________________

With regards to the "stunt" I wrote about, please refer to post # 50 and post #55. Considering the betting pattern and modern technology I figured the connections knew about the infection; he must of spiked a fever. What we witnessed was a "stunt", we were looking one way and were blindsided( Considering our collective experience, we should have seen that one coming ). I have to think most of us have seen that one before.

However, after reading the posts from Elysium and knowing what I know now, I stand down and must and do retract that statement. I've gotta trust here and quite frankly it's difficult knowing the nature of the game.

That being said, its behind us now and the Derby picture has gotten much more intriguing. I'm still w/Alex and expect him to run better times than the did as a 2yo. If he does so, he gets these guys easy.

[Lasix1]

I was severely dissapointed after the rebel knowing that AA could have won handily, they went in 1.44, not fast by any means. And hopefully come the Arkansas derby you will all see what this colt can really do, I hope to.
Thanks for the post Elysium. I agree and when I saw the times my first thought was the same as yours: a healthy AA would have blown the field away in the Rebel. Given the slow fractions, Rocky letting Greater Good get by him only speaks to how ill-prepared he was for that race. 65-70% as Servis said. But as I suggested in another part of the board, watch for the real test in the Arkansas Derby on April 16, and look for a healthy AA and a ready Rocky to leave GG somewhere near the Dogwoods at the top of the Oaklawn stretch. ;)

[Lasix1]

posted by Lasix1- I was over at a buddy's house on SAT afternoon and we were both amazed at the show pool. As they went to the gate Bris Supertote was displaying about 742k total in the show pool with over 700k of that on AA to show. Evidently there was more than one bridgejumper involved. Ouch.
My God, Jeff, there was so much money bet on AA in the show pool that after the Rebel was over I heard there were long lines at Manhattan bridges, waiting their turn to jump off. There were a few around here, too, and we don't even have any bridges tall enough to get the job done!:D

[Valuist]

Not any near Lake Hamilton?

[DerbyTrail]

Thanks for the post Elysium. watch for the real test in the Arkansas Derby on April 16, and look for a healthy AA and a ready Rocky to leave GG somewhere near the Dogwoods at the top of the Oaklawn stretch. ;)

You boys don't get it.. The longer the stretch, the further AWAY Greater Good is going to get.. Look at the splits and GG's closing time. And maybe it hasn't occured, but Bob Holthus will have Greater Good that much tighter for the AK.

You may want to review Bob Holthus' record at Oaklawn.. THE PAST 50 YEARS THAT HE'S BEEN TRAINING THERE.

[Lasix1]

Not any near Lake Hamilton?
Yeah, lots of 'em. But they aren't nearly high enough to dissuade a
bridge jumper to give up the practice permanently.

I never really understood the logic of this form of betting, Valuist. I thought
the idea was to bet a little to make a lot. The bridge jumper
reverses the logic. The worst case I ever heard of was back when Serena's
Song was nearing the end of her sparkling career. Some bridge jumper showed up at an OTB, pulled $300,000 out of a suitcase and bet it all on her to show. She ran 5th. You should have seen the show payouts then! Somehow these people's identities are never revealed. Small wonder.

Sounds like you've been here before. Next time you come, look me
up and we'll sit in the Carousel Terrace, eat corned beef, bread pudding with bourbon souce, and knock back a few. It doesn't get any better than that. :)

[Valuist]

I haven't been there in 15 years but I'd like to head back there sometime. A friend of mine had a horse run there about a month ago and it won. I love how the whole town revolves around racing; kind of like a Saratoga for the South/lower Midwest.

[Elysium Stables]

You boys don't get it.. The longer the stretch, the further AWAY Greater Good is going to get.. Look at the splits and GG's closing time. And maybe it hasn't occured, but Bob Holthus will have Greater Good that much tighter for the AK.


First off GG has never run a beyer over 100, please correct me if I am wrong, and he won't in my not so humble opinion. I saw him up close and personal in the paddock before the rebel and he was washed out. He is a very nice horse, yes, but any horse that comes off the pace in a race that runs those fractions is going to close well. Of course this will all be proven/disproven come the AD and I may very well end up with foot-in-mouth syndrome, which runs rampant before the derby. As for my relationship with the AA team I am a family member of Tim Ritchey, so I hope that makes what I have written about his thoughts and such a little more valid in your minds. And relates just how biast I may be:D

[DerbyTrail]

First off GG has never run a beyer over 100, please correct me if I am wrong, and he won't in my not so humble opinion. I saw him up close and personal in the paddock before the rebel and he was washed out. He is a very nice horse, yes, but any horse that comes off the pace in a race that runs those fractions is going to close well. Of course this will all be proven/disproven come the AD and I may very well end up with foot-in-mouth syndrome, which runs rampant before the derby. As for my relationship with the AA team I am a family member of Tim Ritchey, so I hope that makes what I have written about his thoughts and such a little more valid in your minds. And relates just how biast I may be:D

Elys..

I admire the Cash is King group, Tim and Alex a tremendous amount.. His win in the Hopeful here last year was the most exciting moment of the Saratoga Summer.. (beating Marylou Whitney in a wet dress by a wide margin..).

BUT.. While it's true that Greater Good has yet to run a triple digit Beyer, Afleet Alex hasn't run one yet IN A ROUTE. Take a look at Good's BSF's when he has run in races of INCREASED or MAINTAINED distance:

7/24/04 (6.0f): 58
8/07.04 (7.0f): 73
9/18/04 (8.5f): 81
11/06/04 (8f): cutback (85)
11/27/04 (8.5f): 91
2/19/05 (8.0f): cutback (85) off 80 day layoff
3/19/05 (8.5f): 95
4/16/05 (9.0f): ?
5/07/05 (10f): ?

58, 73, 81, 91, 95..

That's healthy development.. I think I did read earlier this year that Greater Good has had a tendency to get nervous according to Holthus, but it's hardly affected on-track performance. Other than his maiden debut (5th from the 10 hole at 6f) and his troubled 3rd in the Iroquois.. HE'S UNBEATEN. That should count for something.. He's the Cris Carter of three year olds.. All he does is win races..

I absolutely want Alex to go forward and Tim and Co. to do well.. But as I wrote in my Weekend Recap, I'm afraid this is turning out to be the worst trip to the Ozarks since 'Deliverence'..

[Tee]

You boys don't get it.. The longer the stretch, the further AWAY Greater Good is going to get.. Look at the splits and GG's closing time. And maybe it hasn't occured, but Bob Holthus will have Greater Good that much tighter for the AK.

Let's jump ahead to the Ark Derby & then to the Kentucky Derby - more so to the Kentucky Derby.

Do u think Greater Good will still have that finishing kick after already running an extra 3/16's?

[Blenheim]

ONE more item before we move on.

Please check the replay of the Rebel at kentuckyderby.com/2005/ and tell me what you think. Pay close attention to Alex as he switches leads. Just inside the 3/16 he switches from L to R. First stride on the right front he veers, backs off and siwtches back to his left. He doesn't switch back to his right until four strides past the 1/8 pole.

I'm no trainer, but IMO it appears to me he didn't care much for running on that right front. Check the video and please give your perception. I've read perception is reality, but each individual perception of reality is different.

Fortunately for us, Elysium knows what is real. Sure is neat to know you're related to the family Elysium, nice of you to give us the inside scoop. I'm with AA and hope he's doing allright. Tell us what the family thinks about his ability to rebound after the lung infection and to what extent. How much of a setback is the five days off? What about that right front?

[DerbyTrail]

Let's jump ahead to the Ark Derby & then to the Kentucky Derby - more so to the Kentucky Derby.

Do u think Greater Good will still have that finishing kick after already running an extra 3/16's?

Tee..

That's always the rose blanket question every year.. One reason that closers don't win the Derby is that they're gasping for breath as much as the stalkers and pacesetters when they reach the eighth pole...

What is IMPOSSIBLE to deny about this colt is a will to win. He gives no sign yet of packing it in. Another in this category is Don't Get Mad. But Greater Good is a bit faster and further along. He's certainly faster than Scipion and Sort It Out.

Greater Good has one of those pedigrees, although not a R-A-N line top, that has been winning Derbies like clockwork the last 10 years.. Sprinter-miler sire with a dam that has a quality staying pedigree of her own. Sires deliver speed.. Dams deliver stamina..

Gather The Clan (his dam) is a bit of an enigma. She is by General Assembly, Secretariat's great son, through What A Summer, Leroy Jolley's 1977 Sprint Champion who beat males regularly. But she also won the Black Eyed Susan at three.

What A Summer was sired by What Luck, a fabulous unknown footnote in breeding and a son of Bold Ruler. Not only did What Luck get 40 stakes winners including Champion Ambassador of Luck (1983 Older Mare), but he also produced 2 Quarter Horse champions among 17 AQHA stakes winners!

Contrasts of speed and stamina dot Greater Good's dam line.. And there are several excellent classic influences in Intidab as well, including none other than Roberto. For all of his speed, Intidab's dam line includes tremendous stamina from the second dam (Dire) back. Intidab's third dam, Shelf Talker, produced the terrific Bellotto, 2nd in the (1987) 2000 Guineas and 3rd in the Derby..

In essence, you have no idea exactly how long Greater Good can go at a sustained clip. But as I've said repeatedly, five :24.2 second quarters gets the 10f in 2:02. That will win a majority of Derbies. I think if Greater Good cracks the 100 Beyer mark in the AK Derby, he's a major threat Derby Day.

And I'll freely admit that I'm rooting for Bob Holthus.. One of the game's truly great guys.

[Lasix1]

Nice post, Derby Trail. You may well prove to be right, and who can argue with your pedigree analysis. Trouble, of course, is that pedigree hasn't exactly knocked 'em dead in at least three of the last six derbies.

I also have great respect for the capacity of improving 3-year-olds, but GG's past performances have not exactly shown a single progressive upward line. Prior to the Rebel he had only posted one race that hit 90. Then he regresses (though to be sure, he was still winning races.) He runs an unimpressive 85 while winning the Southwest Stakes against a weak field. He does jump up to a career best 95 winning the Rebel, but I'm not nearly as impressed by his race as you and a few others were. Look at the replay. Until AA's breathing problems forced him to drop out, this was never more than a three-horse race. There never was any pace in that race. Going down the backside, RH is in the lead, but ticking off dawdling fractions. AA is pressing him, and GG inherits third because the rest of the field is just along for the ride and never made an impact on the race until Alex spits up the bit at the 3/16 pole. Even at that, GG barely got past a collapsing Rockport Harbor in the last couple of jumps.

The other knock on GG is his running style. Not many deep closers win the Kentucky Derby. For every Monarchos or Strike the Gold, there are dozens of losing closers who come into the Derby with astounding closing fractions, e.g., Victory Gallop, but somehow just don't make it to the wire first. Everyone bets them because of the logic you display here: "Look at his closing fractions." Now he's going a 1 1/4." "This horse is crying for more distance." But year-in and year-out, the Derby goes to early presser types who run just like Rockport Harbor did in the Rebel until he hit a fitness wall, and Afleet Alex did before sickness overtook him.

The 1 1/4 mile distance is always a question mark for all horse in the derby. But when the smoke clears, it's fast EP types that win. The closers like GG pick up the minor awards, but trigger huge exotic payoffs. That's where I'll put GG on my ticket in the Derby.

Tom posted a supporting rationale for your position. He says that this year's crop is so bad and filled with so much cheap speed that the closers may win by default. That may be true of much of the field, but I'm not willing yet to classify Rockport Harbor as "cheap speed," and there's absolutely nothing cheap about Afleet Alex. I'm willing to revise this opinion if need be after the Arkansas Derby, but I still contend that GG will be left somewhere near the magnolia trees at the top of the Oaklawn stretch when a fit RH and a recuperated AA hit their best stride.

P.S. Loved reading your biography. "I didn't move to Sarasota for the water." Wish I had thought of that. Mine should read "I didn't move to Hot Springs for a bath." :)

[kenwoodallpromos]

Your GG-VG post made me check just to maken sure- but VG did win thew AR Derby.
I may have a KYDerby wild guess a week out. Although I oicked GG for the Rebel, I think RH looked very good.
Any horse in shape to run the KY Derby is a superior horse IMO.

[DerbyTrail]

Big "L"

Thanks for the kind words..

I don't disagree with anything you laid out. Nearly all recent Derbies have gone to a runner that was 1-2-3 turning for home... And I think there are a handful of candidates for success in the first flight this year that could just keep going. Going Wild and Consolidator specifically have my attention on that front.

What I wrote in that "100 Beyer" piece last month still holds true. The sophs that have established the ability to run in the neighborhood of a Derby Winning Figure by March 1st have the best chance to win May 7.. That's this group below:

Afleet Alex 102 (6f Sanford)
Going Wild 104 (6f MSW), 100 (9f Sham)
High Fly 100 (8f Aventura)
Proud Accolade 100 (8.5f Champagne)
Galloping Grocer 102 (9f Remsen)
Rockport Harbor 102 (9f Remsen)
Sweet Catomine 102 (8.5f BC JF

I think Grocer and Alex have "issues" right now that make them suspect. I suppose we'll know a bit more about Proud Accolade after the Rushaway, but not much. That leaves Going Wild, High Fly, Rocky and Sweet Cat. Can't argue with any of those four right now on credentials.

Others who have now reached 100 are High Limit and Consolidator. High Limit doesn't have the "bottom" going into the last prep and Derby. (Although I wouldn't put anything past g-d Frankel). Consolidator does though..

On the pedigree front, I would argue that the Derby HAS been "formful"... The last six winners were RAN line colts.. I think 8 of the last 10 and 10 of the last 15 too!! Speed over stamina breeding. One could say that there is a preponderance of these types being bred.. More important than anything else is turn of foot.. As long as a Derby runner can reach contention with a burst going into the turn, they can be involved in the stretch run. The closers don't win because of traffic and bad trips, not because they aren't "fast" enough.

Greater Good is a threat, as is Don't Get Mad, because it looks like they have enough tactical speed that they can bide their time early without falling 20 lengths back, begin a rally somewhere late on the backstretch and keep going when they get to the eighth pole. I'm not utilizing closing times to find a runner that's going to come from the clouds. I'm using them to find one or two that go near the same clip all the way around the track. They'll be running a fifth :24.3 final quarter when everyone else is running a :26.2. (This is why I'm afraid no one from the Gotham is a Derby player.. EVERYONE stumbled home.. at 8 panels).

Regarding Oaklawn.. You obviously know that goofy config they run for 1 mile... With the close-up finish line at that distance, any horse that is any kind of a stretch runner is compromised with the wire so close to the turn. It was EXACTLY Greater Good's gutsy performance in the Southwest that made me think he'd be better in the Rebel. That extra 'teenth was only going to help him, as the extra eighth should in the AK Derby. (And remember that the Southwest was his layoff return and a cutback in distance from his last start at two.. We established that his figs are improving with added distance. I want to go through his TGraph to see those figs as well though).

It could VERY well be that a fully fit Rocky will be far superior to a fully fit Greater Good. I don't dispute that a bit..

ALL the big April preps are going to be amazing. By my count, assuming we get Shamardal and/or Becrux out of the Desert Derby and Sweet Cat as well, there's only going to be about 6-7 slots up for grabs in the Derby gate after the ones that are already "pre-qualified" in earnings.. Should make for some desperate performances at SA, AQU, GP, OP and KEE.. And look for another ridiculous overflow field in the Lexington too..

[Lasix1]

I, too, can hardly wait for the April preps! It may be testimony to the weakness of the field that a filly, Sweet Catomine, has a legitimate shot at the Derby this year. According to my numbers, Afleet Alex had a 107 in the 6f Mountain Valley 2 1/2 weeks ago at Oaklawn, and if that's right, he is close to having posted the fastest Beyer this year for a 3-year-old.

I agree that the question mark on AA is distance. He has not yet won around two-turns and that's troubling. The local Arkansas paper this morning quotes AA's connections as saying he is responding very well to antibiotics for the lung infection, is eating well, and they plan to put him back on the track Monday to continue training for the Arkansas Derby April 16. That race should tell us a lot about whether AA is a solid KD contender or not.

I also agree that a lot of horses can already be eliminated from KD consideration given their performances thus far. I'll certainly take your suggestion about the Gotham and eliminate the whole pitiful field. You're also right that this could be a very full field for the Derby because the major contenders are so weak. As I recall, BRIS lists the Speed Par for the Derby at about 104. Given that standard only Afleet Alex, Rocky, Proud Accolade, Going Wild and Sun King meet it. (Did you inadvertently leave out Sun King--surely he ran a 100+ Beyer before March 1?--but then maybe not.)

I don't know what to think about pedigree and I am the first to admit that it is like reading sheep entrails to me. Derby contenders are typically well-bred, so then you get into that chef-de-race stuff with brilliance numbers, stamina numbers, classic numbers, dosage mixes, etc. The problem is that when there is a melt-down (as there was when Real Quite won, when the ex-claimer Charismatic won, when Funny Cide won, when Smarty Jones won, etc.) the dosage people, instead of modestly admitting that they aren't right all the time, busily concoct post hoc explanations which vindicate their theory. And why not? When your paradigm is being challenged, back-fit the data. Even scientists do it. What was it Einstein said? "If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." My hat is off to those of you who understand this stuff, but I cashed on all of the above horses because I ignored it. And then there's horses like John Henry who, while he didn't run in the Derby, won repeatedly at a 1 1/4, and he was, as my wife, who knows more about pedigree than I ever will, is fond of pointing out: "nothing out of nobody."

I watched Smarty Jones' prep races last spring from the Oaklawn rail, and I was as certain as I've ever been of anything that he would win the Derby. I was one of the 7,000 at Oaklawn to watch the race on the monitors (live racing at Oaklawn had concluded by then) and there was so much money bet on Smarty Jones there, that when he won they actually ran out of money.

But, as you say, GG could be in the hunt, especially if he keeps improving, and I'm going to try to verify Tom's view that the early speed this year is very cheap, and the last 1/4 of a mile at Churchill on the first Saturday in May, they'll be spitting up the bit like front-runners in the Boston Marathon on a hot Sunday in bean town.

Your post was also right about another thing. GG's Bob Holthus is one of the sweetest and most deserving trainers in the game, but then so is AA's Tim Richey and Rocky's John Servis. Oaklawn's a great place to be this spring....

[Bobby]

Take it for what it's worth. OP notes and quotes says Steve Asmussen's Top 3 are Rockport, Bellamy Rd, and High limit. Where/when is Bellamy Rd's next start?

[DerbyTrail]

Take it for what it's worth. OP notes and quotes says Steve Asmussen's Top 3 are Rockport, Bellamy Rd, and High limit. Where/when is Bellamy Rd's next start?

Wood Memorial