One MLB futures play

[Valuist]

Cubs UNDER 88.5 wins

As a Cub fan, I don't like rooting against them but I don't see how they can win 89 games. They won 89 last year.

Their improvements: Garciaparra will be there all season. A definite upgrade, esp. on the offensive side over A-Gon.

Downgrades: Clement is gone. His record was deceptive because he got poor run support. He has great stuff. He'll win a lot of games w/the Red Sox bats behind him. Sammy may have had baggage but even in a bad year he's still good for 35 HRs and will probably drive in 100. Alou is another 30-100 guy and he'll hit close to .300. Both gone. Replaced by Jeremy Burnitz. Burnitz will probably get the 30 HRs back and maybe 80 RBIs but I look for about 150 whiffs and a .250 BA. Hollandsworth will fill in the other OF spot. He hit well, when he played last year but he doesn't have a huge history with getting 500 at bats. Prior is now listed out "indefinitely". Major problem. The closer situation is still unresolved. Maddux has been good for 15 or more wins for something like 17 years but he's 39 now.

Good power on the infield but there's a few too many question marks, IMO. Houston also figures to tail off from last year but the Cubs need St Louis to tail off, and the weak teams from last year to not improve. Thats asking too much.

[kenwoodallpromos]

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/index.jsp?c_id=was

[Valuist]

They might be a good over play. They're finally settled; no more uncertainty over moving, and no playing part of the season in Puerto Rico.

[OTM Al]

Think I read Prior is hurting and Wood is always fragile. Does not bode well for the Northsiders

[sq764]

Yeah, I heard Prior is hurt and may have a LONG year.. Losing Clement hurts bad... Sosa certainly can't help them now..

[Valuist]

Whatever the Cubs say the injury is, its usually 10 times worse. Last spring, they lied the whole time about Wood and Prior.

[headhawg]

I agree with everything here except that I think that losing Sosa is addition by subtraction. His numbers were only fair last year -- a lot of solo shots. And one of my favorite baseball expressions that "Hawk" Harrelson likes to say is "Don't tell me what you hit, tell me when you hit it."

The under does look tempting - even in a division that is much weaker than last year -- especially if the Cubs lose Wood and Prior for any length of time.

And is Kerry Wood the most overrated pitcher/player in baseball?

[Valuist]

Based on season long numbers, I'd have to say he'd be up there. He has never won 15 games. But he has had some misfortune, like the injury in 1999 and the total lack of run support in 2003. He has the reputation because he has tremendous stuff. An upper 90s heater with a vicious breaking ball. His 20 strikeout 1 hitter vs Houston was probably the most dominant performance I've ever seen; more than any no-hitter I can think of in recent times.

[Valuist]

After looking over some rosters and changes, a play I like even more than the Cubs under is the Reds OVER 77.5 wins.

They made some solid acquisitions in the offseason; no superstars, just some players who are solid like Randa, Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz, David Weathers and others. Maybe, just maybe, Griffey can avoid injuries this year. I also think some of the top teams in the division will regress. Houston took some real hits in free agency and the Cubs' pitching staff has several injuries right now. St. Louis has a great outfield and added Mulder but has big question marks at C, SS and 2B.

[toetoe]

KWood is on his way to becoming Ryne "Hall-Of-Famer" Sandberg.