Check the El Cam/LA Derby Beyers..

[DerbyTrail]

From DRF's Prep Capsules Page..

El Camino-Uncle Denny: 85 (1:42.1)

La Derby-High Limit: 105 (1:42.3)

Pretty intriguing... Denny goes 2/5th faster but is 20 pts slower on the BSF.. Anxious to see the Rago's and TG's... And the "CJ's"

[Speed Figure]

FG is a far slower track than BM. The beyer's I feel are right on. I give High Limit a 103, Uncle Denny 90. The track was super fast at BM. The 2nd race was a ALW for 4 and up and they went :45.5, 1:09.3, 1:41.7. That should tell you how fast the track was. I have a variant of 6 for routes.

[Valuist]

I think the FG number is definitely legit. There was a number of 1 1/16 mile races at the FG on Saturday. The pace number is going to be even more impressive for High Limit, especially when you compare it to the paceless FG Oaks.

[JPinMaryland]

The 2nd race was a ALW for 4 and up and they went :45.5, 1:09.3, 1:41.7. That should tell you how fast the track was..

okay, so how fast is it supposed to tell me?

[cj]

I haven't looked over the card yet, but I'm guessing the pace number will be pretty slow, and the 105 speed number is probably spot on.

As for the El Camino Real, BM is one of the fastest tracks, day in and day out. Forget the raw times, they are clouding your judgement. Either you believe speed figures are better, or ignore them.

JP and Derby, you guys should really read "Picking Winners" by Andy Beyer if you haven't already. You don't always have to agree with the Beyers, or any other speed figure, but you should at least learn the basics of making them. Even if you decide they are not worth using in your handicapping, it helps to know *why* your opponent, the public, is betting certain horses.

[cj]

FG is a far slower track than BM. The beyer's I feel are right on. I give High Limit a 103, Uncle Denny 90. The track was super fast at BM. The 2nd race was a ALW for 4 and up and they went :45.5, 1:09.3, 1:41.7. That should tell you how fast the track was. I have a variant of 6 for routes.

Actually, this doesn't tell you a whole lot unless you are knowledgable about the horses in the allowance race, and the actual conditions. If it was a monied allowance for stakes winners, I'd expect them to run faster than the 3yos. If its a NW2 LT, I would not.

[DerbyTrail]

JP and Derby, you guys should really read "Picking Winners" by Andy Beyer if you haven't already. You don't always have to agree with the Beyers, or any other speed figure, but you should at least learn the basics of making them. Even if you decide they are not worth using in your handicapping, it helps to know *why* your opponent, the public, is betting certain horses.

CJ..

Have read Picking Winners several times and go back to it a lot for reference.. Beyer on Speed and Davidowitz too. I have no problem with the figures and understand the speed of the circuits involved.. I was just shocked at the spread.. I didn't see the Camino (as I was in Montreal the weekend and the Hippo Club wasn't going to run BM), but I would have thought that the Denny fig would have at least been in the low-90's..

[frankfig]

Did anyone see his allowance win at Gulf the other day. He looked GREAT. It seemed like a good time[one turn mile]. Anyone have a figure of that win ?

[Valuist]

I did a quick number and got a 105 pace and 103 final number. My numbers tend to run a little lower than Beyer. I have no idea what he gave but I'd guess higher than what I gave. One thing about that race; Bellamy Road looked like lone speed and the other chalk was probably sent earlier than they wanted because there was no other speed at all and it was such a small field. BTW, Pletcher had a 2nd timer named Confederation who earned a pretty big number for a maiden last Saturday.

Zito has a monopoly on the fastest conditioned allowance races at GP. In the NW1X he's already sent out Sun King, Wanderin Boy, Noble Causeway and Bird Harbor. All earned Beyers of at least 96.