TMM at AQU - SUnday

[cato]

One again, pressed for time.

Races 1-5--Pass. No compelling pace scenario. Programs top picks = top ml horses

Race 6 -- #1 Speed Bag at 9-2. 6 point gap. sole VTR (overlay)
Bet to win and use in exotics

Race 7--Heavily presured but don't see any opportunities
Race 8--Heavily presured but don't see any opportunities
Race 9--pass. no apparent opportunities

Good luck
Cato

[cato]

"Race 6 -- #1 Speed Bag at 9-2. 6 point gap. sole VTR (overlay)
Bet to win and use in exotics" --only bet of the day at AQU (for me)

RESULT: #1 Wins, paying $9.80 and $5.00


now that gives me some money to fund the P-6 bet at SA


Cheers, Cato

[cratman]

Good call. Could you explain how you calculated that gap. I was not able to replicate your work.

Thanks,
Cratman

[cato]

Thanks and sure

The initial output of the program had #6 as the top rated horse with a 10 PPF. Speed Bag was 2d pPF with a 5. Factual 3rd PPF with a 3. I looked at the ratings to see if I agreed.

#6's 10 was fromm its last race which is a good thing but it came from a relatively slow paced route race and this is a 6 furlong race that shodul have a fairly brisk pace. SO I looked to see if there were any other ratings for #6 that were close--but there were none so I eliminated that pace line from cosideration.

That alone gives you the #1 as the top rated horse and 1 2 pt gap and teh sole vtr.

I also looked at #1 and saw that it ran a 9 on 12/30 and 1 6 on 9/4 so I went ahead and went back to accept the 9 on 12/30.

This, of course, is what drives peopel crazy with any program that relies somehwat on paceline selection.

Tha call I made on #6 is one I normally make becuase the internal #s just don't convert all that well -- especially if from a slow pace and I expecting a quick pace today. (although many people, including Poizzolla disagree with me on that) But sometimes making that call bites you and the horse you downgraded wins and it drives you crazy. And sometimes--normally if I am tryingto do too many tracks, I'll miss the call and lose and that will also be just a tad frustrating.

The call I made on #1 did not need to be made as I would have still made the bet whether it was given a 9 ppf or a 5 ppf. But, generally, I will take races that look logical (horse appears to be fit and in good form, pace is similar to expected pace today, dry fast tractk, etc.) and if they have been run in the last couple of months.

That's the news. See what works for you.

Cato

[cratman]

Thank you.

Cratman