DerbyTrail
03-11-2005, 08:21 AM
Saturday's sophomore stakes schedule takes us to New Orleans and San Francisco for the Louisiana and El Camino Real Derbies: two events that have histories of identifying classy winners on the Derby Trail and beyond.
2003's edition of the Gr. II Fair Grounds meet highlight produced Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide, 3rd that day (subsequetly awarded 2nd), and was won by Peace Rules who went on to his gutsy show placement at Churchill.
In 1996, eventual Derby winner Grindstone left the Big Easy a winner, having topped local hero Zarb's Magic on his way to the roses for D. Wayne Lukas. Another Louisiana legend that copped Derby laurels here and at Louisville was the mercurial Risen Star (1988).
THE LOUISIANA DERBY, Gr. II, $600,000, 8.5f, All carry 122
1.) SORT IT OUT (Baffert/Albarado) 6-1: Stonerside acquisition makes first start under Baffert after surprising Grocer, Scrappy and New Yorker in the Whirlaway. May need this after being kept him off the worktab for weeks following the move from Big Apple. NY-bred is 4 for 5 at the trip, draws rail and Ridin' Robby for late run, but speed-favoring oval has us leaning against today. Recall Baffert got first LA Derby win last year with Wimbledon after a number of frustrating visits.
2.) STORM SURGE (Stewart/Bailey) 6-1: Overbrook stalker-presser continues to be winless past 8f after admirable Risen Star try fell short. Formful Storm Cat colt has maintained level for Dallas during 9 race career, but doesn't appear to be developing further. Waters get deeper for sophs from here on out, and while addition of Bailey can't hurt, we think several here are moving by him at this point in the season.
3.) HIGH LIMIT (Frankel/Dominguez) 5-2: X-factor colt appears from Frankel barn after scoring easily in both career starts at DEL while under the care of Tony Dutrow. Buzz from Palm Meadows on this one is deafening, and fact he is ML favorite means noise was heard all the way to New Orleans! Adds significant 7# today, but with Proud Accolade sick, may be lone speed at circuit where that works wonders (think Peace Rules). Frankel angles all positive into this, and Maria's Mon colt figures prominently under Dominguez if you care to swallow the low tab.
4.) REAL DANDY (Asmussen/Meche) 8-1: Yankee Victor bay started
career as Asmussen barn after-thought, but has moved past stablemates to earn trainer's respect, appreciation. Turned string of near-misses under lesser guidance into win-place efforts under capable Donnie, including fireworks exacta finish under Scipion in last month's Risen Star. Steady developer was targeted for this spot originally by 26% (meet) conditioner, and is one of several off-pace runners to choose from in event that may not offer appropriate set-up.
5.) INDY STORM (Zito/Melancon) 20-1: Another week, another stake, another Zito prospect... Farmer dropped $750,000 at KEE Sept. '03 sale for this A.P. Indy colt who won first out in the Calder slop at 8f New Year's Eve. Late runner failed to factor in pair of GP ALW's since, but Nick said this week he expects a "different horse" Saturday. Barn is on fire, strip reg Melancon climbs on, and pony is sole ML "big price" at 20-1. Makes sense for exotic tickets hopping to land a tote buster.
6.) WALLSTREET SCANDAL (Violette/Bejarano) 10-1: Read the Footnotes connections make another try on the main with recently successful GP turf ALW winner. Cross-out Champagne flop from BEL rail, and realize Mt. Livermore chestnut is 4/2-2-0 with pair of stakes placements. Fired Boynton Beach bullet on Monday earning plane fare to New Orleans, and Violette lures Bejarano to 10-1 play as added benefit. May run more forwardly with horsy Houdini aloft, and is a viable option to those seeking value throughout the money slots.
7.) SCIPION (Biancone/Stevens) 4-1: Biancone's Slow-developing A.P. Indy son may have benefited from Risen Star collapse when scoring here under Stevens last month. Gets acid test here with some added competition and pace scenario that may not be as inviting. Will have to come home faster than :32.4 today, and we're doubting that.
8.) VICARAGE (Pletcher/Velasquez) 10-1: "Other" Pletcher entrant became solo artist with Accolade defection, and MSW/ALW winner acquires services of Johnny V. thanks to it. Nice Vicar colt from Dogwood has failed to menace in pair of graded stakes tries, but "karma moves" here 3rd of the break for first two turn try. For Pletcher-Velasquez fans.
9.) KANSAS CITY BOY (McPeek/Blanc) 5-1: One of our favorite Class of '05 colts got wide berth manager wanted when abandoning last week's Fountain of Youth for this. Holy Bull runner up and Lecomte show pony (shy a neck and head) removes the blinkers to try new stalking-pressing tactic under Blanc. Education timing looks right as McPeek charge is sitting pretty in Derby earnings race and may be just arriving at start of peak cycle. Doesn't have to win today, but expect another move forward by our top Derby outsider.
SELECTIONS:
1. Kansas City Boy
2. High Limit
3. Wallstreet Scandal
4. Real Dandy
5. Storm Surge
2003's edition of the Gr. II Fair Grounds meet highlight produced Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide, 3rd that day (subsequetly awarded 2nd), and was won by Peace Rules who went on to his gutsy show placement at Churchill.
In 1996, eventual Derby winner Grindstone left the Big Easy a winner, having topped local hero Zarb's Magic on his way to the roses for D. Wayne Lukas. Another Louisiana legend that copped Derby laurels here and at Louisville was the mercurial Risen Star (1988).
THE LOUISIANA DERBY, Gr. II, $600,000, 8.5f, All carry 122
1.) SORT IT OUT (Baffert/Albarado) 6-1: Stonerside acquisition makes first start under Baffert after surprising Grocer, Scrappy and New Yorker in the Whirlaway. May need this after being kept him off the worktab for weeks following the move from Big Apple. NY-bred is 4 for 5 at the trip, draws rail and Ridin' Robby for late run, but speed-favoring oval has us leaning against today. Recall Baffert got first LA Derby win last year with Wimbledon after a number of frustrating visits.
2.) STORM SURGE (Stewart/Bailey) 6-1: Overbrook stalker-presser continues to be winless past 8f after admirable Risen Star try fell short. Formful Storm Cat colt has maintained level for Dallas during 9 race career, but doesn't appear to be developing further. Waters get deeper for sophs from here on out, and while addition of Bailey can't hurt, we think several here are moving by him at this point in the season.
3.) HIGH LIMIT (Frankel/Dominguez) 5-2: X-factor colt appears from Frankel barn after scoring easily in both career starts at DEL while under the care of Tony Dutrow. Buzz from Palm Meadows on this one is deafening, and fact he is ML favorite means noise was heard all the way to New Orleans! Adds significant 7# today, but with Proud Accolade sick, may be lone speed at circuit where that works wonders (think Peace Rules). Frankel angles all positive into this, and Maria's Mon colt figures prominently under Dominguez if you care to swallow the low tab.
4.) REAL DANDY (Asmussen/Meche) 8-1: Yankee Victor bay started
career as Asmussen barn after-thought, but has moved past stablemates to earn trainer's respect, appreciation. Turned string of near-misses under lesser guidance into win-place efforts under capable Donnie, including fireworks exacta finish under Scipion in last month's Risen Star. Steady developer was targeted for this spot originally by 26% (meet) conditioner, and is one of several off-pace runners to choose from in event that may not offer appropriate set-up.
5.) INDY STORM (Zito/Melancon) 20-1: Another week, another stake, another Zito prospect... Farmer dropped $750,000 at KEE Sept. '03 sale for this A.P. Indy colt who won first out in the Calder slop at 8f New Year's Eve. Late runner failed to factor in pair of GP ALW's since, but Nick said this week he expects a "different horse" Saturday. Barn is on fire, strip reg Melancon climbs on, and pony is sole ML "big price" at 20-1. Makes sense for exotic tickets hopping to land a tote buster.
6.) WALLSTREET SCANDAL (Violette/Bejarano) 10-1: Read the Footnotes connections make another try on the main with recently successful GP turf ALW winner. Cross-out Champagne flop from BEL rail, and realize Mt. Livermore chestnut is 4/2-2-0 with pair of stakes placements. Fired Boynton Beach bullet on Monday earning plane fare to New Orleans, and Violette lures Bejarano to 10-1 play as added benefit. May run more forwardly with horsy Houdini aloft, and is a viable option to those seeking value throughout the money slots.
7.) SCIPION (Biancone/Stevens) 4-1: Biancone's Slow-developing A.P. Indy son may have benefited from Risen Star collapse when scoring here under Stevens last month. Gets acid test here with some added competition and pace scenario that may not be as inviting. Will have to come home faster than :32.4 today, and we're doubting that.
8.) VICARAGE (Pletcher/Velasquez) 10-1: "Other" Pletcher entrant became solo artist with Accolade defection, and MSW/ALW winner acquires services of Johnny V. thanks to it. Nice Vicar colt from Dogwood has failed to menace in pair of graded stakes tries, but "karma moves" here 3rd of the break for first two turn try. For Pletcher-Velasquez fans.
9.) KANSAS CITY BOY (McPeek/Blanc) 5-1: One of our favorite Class of '05 colts got wide berth manager wanted when abandoning last week's Fountain of Youth for this. Holy Bull runner up and Lecomte show pony (shy a neck and head) removes the blinkers to try new stalking-pressing tactic under Blanc. Education timing looks right as McPeek charge is sitting pretty in Derby earnings race and may be just arriving at start of peak cycle. Doesn't have to win today, but expect another move forward by our top Derby outsider.
SELECTIONS:
1. Kansas City Boy
2. High Limit
3. Wallstreet Scandal
4. Real Dandy
5. Storm Surge