Winning without pace figures

[dav4463]

I have to admit that I envy those who use pace figures. However, I am winning without them. I keep thinking my picks are going to hit a brick wall (lack of confidence?), but I keep winning. I have no clue how to use pace figures. I do look at the running styles of horses and project who wants the lead and who doesn't, but other than that I never look at a pace figure. Am I in the minority, or are there any other horseplayers who never use pace figures ? If I knew how to use them, I would consider it, but as long as I am winning I am reluctant to try to figure them out.

[Zaf]

Am I in the minority, or are there any other horseplayers who never use pace figures ?


Sheets Guys.

ZAFONIC

[jfdinneen]

dav4463:


You are not alone in winning without using pace figures. For example, no handicappers in Europe (England, France, Ireland) have access to sectional times (pace data) and yet there are very healthy betting markets in all three countries. As I have indicated elsewhere, we should be willing to test our skills in many different markets in order to improve our overall handicapping abilities. Personally, I compete in the US, England, and Hong Kong on a regular basis and I can definitely say that it has improved my handicapping knowledge - no one jurisdiction has a monopoly on handicapping expertise.

Note that a particular weakness of focusing too much on numerical data (pace, speed figures) is the inherent danger of having more data but less information! Remember, we get paid at the betting windows for choosing the correct rank order (ordinal data) irrespective of the particular figures (interval or ratio data) or not we have used to determine those same rankings. For example, it does not matter a whim whether Tom uses speed figures, Dick uses pace figures, or Harry uses trip handicapping to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby they will still get paid the same return for the same stake if their selection wins.

With specific reference to pace handicapping, I quote no less an authority than Tom Brohamer [BwtB, pp. 30]:


"...Inexperienced handicappers generally fall into a pattern of overdependence on figures. They often miss the real crux of the situation: the matchup within the individual race. Popular Oklahoma handicapper Jim Bradshaw used to simplify the problem with the following: 'Hell boy, it ain't nothing but a horse race; just figure out who's gonna lead and who's gonna chase'..."



It seems from your initial posting that you are already following Brohamer's advice and, if so, do not change your current successful approach and never worry about missing winners (only backing losers). The minimal requirements for a successful approach to handicapping are as follows:


Knowledge of win rate;
Mathematically sound approach to wagering based on win rate; and
Confidence.

Best wishes,


John

[Valuist]

A professional bettor told me about 15 years ago that between pace and track bias, pace is more important than bias in routes, but bias would trump pace in sprint races. I would still have to agree with that assertion.

[46zilzal]

I have to admit that I envy those who use pace figures. However, I am winning without them.
goes to show that winning is akin to having many different roads to a mountain top. Some roads are rougher or steeper than others, but they all get there. THERE IS NO ONE WAY TO DO ANYTHING!

[Dave Schwartz]

Dav,

Not using pace? Why you can't possibly win without pace! You must not really be winning! You just think you are winning.

Can't you just hear the above paragraph from the know-it-all folks?


What matters, Dave, is that you are among the few that have found a way to beat the game: your way.

Congratulations. Keep it up.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Tom]

I think using pace figures without first doing a pace analyisis is like kissing your sister. I can't interpret figures in a vacuum.

[Dan Montilion]

My sister does the vacuming and she knows nothing about pace.

Dan Montilion

[Tom]

I would be happy to kiss her for you! :eek:

[BIG RED]

I don't follow or use pace figures.

( Dan, move out :lol: )