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View Full Version : A tricky theoretical question for CJ's method...


JPinMaryland
03-09-2005, 04:32 AM
Given what you've said about your figs and how you create them, isnt it possible for a horse to finish second (or even third) and still get a better overall figure than the horse that won?

This would not seem impossible and given what you've said I would think that sooner or later it should happen.

Even more well known figure maker such as Beyer should be have this happen on occasion. Yes? I mean Beyer takes pains to demonstrate to the reader how three different horses with the exact same final time could run different speed numbers. All of this of course based upon pace analysis...

For example take the race won by Southern Africa last week. Classic example of a closer picking up the pieces of a speed duel. THor's Echo got into a fast paced duel but still he only lost by one length or so...

If I understand your reasoning/theory, closers are often overrated in terms of Beyer Speed figures (or other speed figs) because they are sort of getting the advantage of horses having backed up. Something like that.

Well, then it seems to me this race should be a classic example if I understand you. Thor's Echo should not be penalized too greatly, after all he did the hard work setting the early pace and he only lost by a length. So. AFrica on the other hand was a classic example of picking up the pieces of a speed duel.

So can a loser still get a higher speed fig. then the winner? Why or why not? If your theory is consistent it would seem that it should happen on occasion.

cj
03-09-2005, 05:42 AM
Not only is it possible, it happens quite often. And not just with speed horses, sometimes closers as well.

Example A: I give the race pace-race speed as 90-70. A horse that ran on the lead then was beaten a length at the wire might get figures of 90-68, and an overall figure of 79 or so. A closer who was last every step of the first half mile, then came "flying" home, would probably get between 65 and 70 for my final number. So, not only would the second finisher get a higher figure, its not even close.

Example B: This race the pace-speed relationship is 70-90 and the front runner hangs on to win by a length. The front runner is going to get a figure of around 80, while the closer will get between 84 and 88, even though he finished behind the front runner.

The "overrated" horse is the one aided by the pace. I am very leary of slow paced races for rating any horse, they usually don't paint a true picture. If the front runner in example B has shown the ability to run a 90 or higher in the past, I'll assume he will run that in the future. A closer running behind a slow pace has virtually no chance to perform his best. On the other hand, average and faster paced races usually give about a true a rating as you will ever get. For up close types, the combo is deadly accurate, and for closers, the speed figure is about as good as a closer is ever going to record.

This could NEVER happen with Beyer. All figures for a race are based on the final time of that race, or the first finisher. Every other horse is given a figure starting with that number, then deducting beaten lengths. So, no, a Beyer will never be better for the 2nd or 3rd horse than the winner.

JPinMaryland
03-09-2005, 01:09 PM
Okay that makes sense. after I posted I re-read one of your other posts giving an example using hypothetical horses who scored different figs and dead heated. So I realized that it probably was possible using your system.

Can you indicate any of the 3 yr. old prep races where this has happened this year so far?

Also somewhat unrelated: what did you get for Golden Shine's race last weekend. He scored a 91 Beyer, I think, running pretty much unopposed on the lead.

cj
03-09-2005, 01:12 PM
San Vincente Stakes, Fusaichi Rock Star will definitely show up with a lower figure than the 2nd place finisher, I forget his name.

I don't know Golden Shine's number off the top of my head. I don't even usually look until they show up in the PPs again. If you give me the race date, I'll look it up. I'm not a big "horses to watch" kind of guy.

JPinMaryland
03-10-2005, 02:31 PM
CJ the Golden Shine race is Feb 17, Santa Anita, 4th race. Thanks.

I like the idea that you can produce speed figs that reflect a horse that doesnt win getting the highest figure. I think this is the logical conclusion if what the pace handicappers say is true (i.e. that all final times are not the same effort).

I am surprised your website doesnt tout that. Or maybe it does and I just didnt see it.