Overlays vs. Spot Plays

[dav4463]

I keep good records. I know that I am good at picking longshots and basically suck when I try to pick the low-priced overlay. I am curious as to how others approach the game. I will normally pick 4 contenders per race and assign odds that I will bet the horse at to win...usually 4-1 or 6-1 on top pick, 6-1 or 9-1 on second pick and 9-1 or 14-1 on third and fourth choice. I have though, had success before by going through the form and picking no more than one or two horses and looking for spot plays that way and playing both if they are 6-1 or higher, otherwise playing 4-1 and up only. I've found that my win betting far outperforms exactas, but trifectas are my best bet profit-wise. I just don't find as many playable trifectas.

My question is: Do you like to search for odds among 4 contenders or more, or would you rather pick your horse, maybe two, and live or die with your pick?

[midnight]

I approach a race by finding the horses which I think have a reasonable chance (at least 10%) of winning. Then I shop for value. The horse with the highest chance of winning is often an underlay, whereas the third or fourth choice sometimes goes off at a nice price. Being flexible might allow me to find a play; whereas if I stick to one horse and either bet it or don't play the race, I'd be passing up some opportunities to make long-term profitable bets.

[kenwoodallpromos]

After I plug in one of my systems or after evaluating a horse that looks good by full handicapping or noticing a possible spot play, I condsider payoff vs. risk of losing and try to bet on any horse I think is an overlay.
I only bet $2.00 unless I am playing one of my systems and on my longshot system because I will not have enough test races for those.

[Joe Conte]

Dave, why demand an either/or when there are times when one strategy is best, or the other is best. As for being ahead on triples, that could be illusory due to the "bloated" nature of such returns. For example, I'm way ahead lifetime on Pick 6s with an ROI exceeding 2000%...but that's only because I have played it only a few dozen times in 5 years or more...and hit it 3 times. But it doesn't mean that I should concentrate exclusively on Pick 6s...even though my ROI on win betting (my mainstay) less than l/50th (!) of my Pick 6 ROI. The secret is CHURN...putting through as much money as you can every year...so that an ROI of say l0% on a yearly handle of $l million yields you an average profit of $2,000.00 a week tax free. Try to think in terms of CHURN, and ask yourself how you can bet more $$$ every month...even if the return is less. You get it? ;)

[sjk]

For what it's worth I make odds on all the horses and will bet any horse to win or on top of the exacta that I give a 5% or greater chance to win (looking for an 80% overlay or more). I use a 3% chance or greater to place for a cut off on the bottom spot in an exacta.

I get opportunities to play up and down the odds spectrum.

[freeneasy]

and it depends on how much you can trust your win percentage to hold up on an ongoing yearly basis after that is a settled issue then basically it all becomes a matter of what kind of money you want to make.

[dav4463]

I have to get that straight in my head. Less % return, but more action equals more $$$$$ !!! Thanks for the insight. My favorite part of handicapping is reviewing my own records. Sometimes I play around with them too much and ignore some solid strategies trying to improve on them.

[ratpack]

and I have used a combination of both. I basically use my top 2 choices and bet the one that has odds of 4-1 or better providing they fit the projected running style of the race. If they are both overlays I need 6-1 on both.

I also use the Prohibitive Favorite method in Fierro's book if that plays out it is a no bet.

The one thing I have found about using any one program is that you find some methods/angles/spot plays within the program that seem to work day in and day out. For example with AIO I have found that an odds spread of 5 or more odds units between the top horse and 2nd horse is a strong play so I am not betting againist that horse even if the 2nd choice is 4-1 or over. However that still leaves open ex, tri's P3 and other exotics

[how cliche]

I'm going to post something which is very subjective and might not live up to the standards being set on this forum. I can't give stats. I can't refer to figure jumps. I can't really offer any numbers for I'm an intuitive player. All I ask is for is an open ear.

I tend to agree with the consensus that on a day to day basis overlays and spots are equal in terms of merit. Honestly, I'm not that good. I miss with nearly 4 of 5 horses I play so I take whichever I can get whenever I can get it.

On the same token some days they're one and the same, meaning an overlay becomes your spot play. Recently I noted a Jerry Hollendorfer trainee at BM who was 3-1 on the morning line but I thought would surely be bet down to 4/5 because the horse appeared obviously the best. I was unable to find another horse that day and figured I'd pass everything since I don't play runners at odds of less than 4-1. I got home from what I was doing in time to see the race and was shocked to see him holding steady at 5-1. I just had to bet my day's bankroll on him.

Other days there's a runner who looks primed to run big and I know the price is going to be huge so I take a shot, even if he looks overmatched on paper. For example, if Barry Abrams horse draws in from the AE's for Wednesday's 7th at SA I'm playing. I like how the horse was a close up 4th sprinting when he came back from a 7 month layoff. Next race he just ran around the track in a 1 1/2 mile marathon on Saturday. Rider never let loose on him. My thinking is he's received tactical speed from the sprint and stamina from the 12f run and he should be dead fit for a mile try just 4 days after his last. He's by Unusual Heat who's progeny do their best running at a mile or 1 1/16 on the turf, as he's already proven he can do up north. And if I recollect he's graduated from national n1x conditions but is somehow still eligible for cal-bred n1x conditions. Is this possible? I like the horse in this race.

In the end it all comes down to this. I get the sense that all on this board have been at this racing game for years now. We can tell the difference between what we like and what we don't. If we play only what we like and admit that there's many times where we don't know what we like, we will prevail on a daily, weekly, yearly basis.

This is important. Occasionally there's a horse who we more than like...we love. We expect them to win, and they don't dissapoint. We hear our own voice and can tell the difference. We need to own that. A friend of mine told me, "I know Singletary is going to win The Breeders' Cup Mile." His voice was certain. 20 or 40 to win type guy. He loved him so he played 400 to win. His only play of the entire day. Now that's a spot.

[LurkingBettor]

Many weeks ago. Hope you had a ton on him.

Regards,
LB

[how cliche]

Thanks, LB. See the thread "Bombs Away". I stuck with the horse. Pick of the day.

[andicap]

This is important. Occasionally there's a horse who we more than like...we love. We expect them to win, and they don't dissapoint. We hear our own voice and can tell the difference. We need to own that. A friend of mine told me, "I know Singletary is going to win The Breeders' Cup Mile." His voice was certain. 20 or 40 to win type guy. He loved him so he played 400 to win. His only play of the entire day. Now that's a spot.

I'll say. I'm a $20-$40 bettor as well on the races, $10-$20 on football. But I was so sure Million Dollar Baby would win the Oscars and the Aviator would lose this year that I bet $140 on both events happening and was never ever nervous. At the track I'd be a mess.

But the result just seemed so clear so apparent so obvious to me -- and not in the way we're sure a 2-5 shot will win today's race -- that I would have never been able to face myself if I didn't plunge on that bet.