TMM for AQU on Sunday

[cato]

SUnday at AQU (using TMM)

Race 1--Pass--top 3 rated horses = top 3 ml + no pace scenario
Race 2--Pass--3 of 4 top rated horses = top 3 ml + no pace scenario
Race 3--Pass--top 2 rated horses = top 2 ml
Race 4--Pass--three FTS
Race 5--Pass--two FTS + top 2 rated horses = top 2 ml
Race 6-- sets up as highly pressured. hope that any combination of 1,2,4,6 get into some kind of dual, leaving it for 3 (5-1 ml) or 7 (10-1 ml) to close for the exciting and proitable victory. If forced, I would choose the 7...

Race 7--#1A has a 3 pt gap and is the sole VTR at 7-2 ml. May use top and bottom with other, higher odds horses in exactas (w/2,4,5,7,8)


Race 8--#4 has a 5 pt gap (if you go back to 2d race) and is the sole VTR at 3-1 ml. May box 4-5 pretty strong (although low odds) and go a 4-5/4-5/all high odds tri. And may use top and bottom with other, higher odds horses in exactas (w/2,3,6,7)

Race 9-The race is a mess and therefore could eb an opportunity or a pass. It was rated at highly pressured before the scratches and pressured after the sccratches. #6 is top ranked ppf horse at 20-1 (!). ML Fav (#5 is definitely vulnerable as all of these horses appear to suck. Looking for closers since the race is pressued...but no one is that great...maybe 9 and 10, #3 is the fulcrum...toss in the 6 + some low odds horse and you have some wild combinations or a pass. I'll probbaly post more on this race later which I have more time to sort it out.

Good luck

Cato

[trickey]

cato,

way to go.....you nailed the 167.00 dollar exacta cold at aqu in the 7th...

i like the way you analyze the races using the tmm.....i also use it but

struggle at times .......

nice going..........

keep up the good work.......

trickey

[cato]

If I have time and have not done something crazy like try to handicap and bet 5 tracks in any given day, I'll look backto see what I did right and wrong. SO here goes on Sunday.

First, how did I bet these? Well in the real world, stuff happens and in this case my Sunday was allocated to open up a counseling dialogue with my drug and alcohol addled neice. So after posting my analysis I simply did some quick bets to win (not the best use of TMM) and ran out the door thinking I was going to be back in time to bet the exotics on races 7,8 and 9. That did not work out so I lost a little bity of money when I "should" have (don't you love that phrase when you catch yourself saying it?). On the other hand I might (emphasis is on might) have helped another human, so big winner for the day.

passing the first 5 races--always makes me feel good when I write down pass and then I really do pass. So far so good

Race 6--I expected a highly pressured race and that the #3 and/or #7 might close at high odds. That did not happen. A speed dual did not develop and the best either of my poicks could do was eke out a show (#3) + their odds were not so high (both at about 6-1).

The reminder for me here is that this was a 6 horse field and in my own view, its much less likely for a speed dual to devlop in a shorter field, although in my defense it did appear that there were 4 horses who might go for the lead. Plus, the odds were not all that attractive. So in the real world I did the quick win bet on #3 and 7 and lost. Had I been at teh computer when the 6 th race rolled around I hope I woudl have looked at the field and the odds and woudl have passed this race...

Race 7-yippee. The 1A wins and pays $7 and $3.90. The #7 (under my theory of using the illogical contenders under) comes in 2d and the $2 exacta pays $167 and the $2 tri pays $996. I hope some of you folks had that (at least the exacta) several times. And since I was not at the computer, I woulda, shoulda coulda...

Race 8--yippee. The #4 places and the #5 (Diligent Gambler!) wins. Among other thngs I said I would hit the 4-5 exacta box hard and it paid $22.80. Oh but for good deads.....!

Race 9---almost yippee but not quite. The lesson here was that I wanted to make a bet and analysis based on the initial clasification of the race as HIghly Pressured. AFte the scratches, it moved to pressured. Still TMM gives some tools for this such as the position pointed. Ony 2 horses had a positive ration (ability to close)--#1 and #9 (finished first and 4th respectively). I ignored all sorts of other stuff about the #1--had I looked more closely at the pace lines, I would have upgraded the horse and then coupled it with other high odds horses and had the exacta at $59 and the tri at $310.
But hey, I did not do any of that and missed the #1.
My original analysis said the race was a mess and its hard to say how I should have approacehd it. there were many different posible approaches--look to closers (#1 and #9), include the fulcrum horse (#3), include the VTR horses (#2 and 6) and the highly rated horses (#6, 2, 8, 1).

SO if you are like me and missed #1, the race is a mess and unbeatable (in my view). If you wre able to key the #1 its a think of beauty, as they all are in hindsight.

To finally finish this up. I am good with the passes on races 1-5, I understand why I took the position I did on the 6th race and, (sigh) would probably do it again, obviously happy with the 7th and 8th races and then just blew the 9th.

And in the world of handicapping that's a good day in a tough but fascinating game. :cool:

Take care, Cato