Aqueduct and Dutrow/the NONDRUG Explaination

[Tuffmug]

I just love to see people so off track about why Crafty Player won two races in three days. The brain dead and drug obsessed will blame it on drugs and vigorously slander the trainer and this game without hesitating and reflecting on the obvious.

Read the past performances. This horse was competitive at the 35 to 50K level BEFORE he was claimed by Mr. Dutrow. So now tell me what's so amazing about a 50K horse winning a 12.5K and then a 22.5 K race! For a 50k horse, the 12.5k is a mere workout three days before the 22.5K race. This is just a standard BIG DROP TO WIN move that Mr.Dutrow uses ALL THE TIME! The only thing I find ABSOLUTELY AMAZING is why the Aqueduct trainers don't drop a claim on all the horses Dutrow does this with!

[PaceAdvantage]

Actually, in this case, I believe the word you should be using is libel, not slander.

And if you spot any libel, please let me know, and I will immediately delete it...I don't believe there were any libelous comments in the Dutrow thread. He has been suspended in the past for his horses testing positive for banned substances, correct?

I don't think anyone accused Dutrow of messing with Crafty Player, did they?

[toetoe]

This just in ---

Recently deceased thread answered the question,
"Can you justify deferring euthanasia?" thusly:

"I'm a frayed knot."

[Valuist]

The Aqueduct trainers are not stupid. They know they aren't going to move a Dutrow horse forward.

[the little guy]

I just love to see people so off track about why Crafty Player won two races in three days. The brain dead and drug obsessed will blame it on drugs and vigorously slander the trainer and this game without hesitating and reflecting on the obvious.

Read the past performances. This horse was competitive at the 35 to 50K level BEFORE he was claimed by Mr. Dutrow. So now tell me what's so amazing about a 50K horse winning a 12.5K and then a 22.5 K race! For a 50k horse, the 12.5k is a mere workout three days before the 22.5K race. This is just a standard BIG DROP TO WIN move that Mr.Dutrow uses ALL THE TIME! The only thing I find ABSOLUTELY AMAZING is why the Aqueduct trainers don't drop a claim on all the horses Dutrow does this with!I'm just wondering, do you have to be brain dead AND drug obsessed to be shocked by Crafty Player's form reversal? Could it at least be an either/or?

[TOOZ]

Why isn't as simple as: Dutrow to owner, "Your horse is in great shape, we can run him again in three days, he has a great shot", instead of trainer to owner, "It was a tough race, let's give him 30 days rest, I need those training and boarding expenses to keep coming in".

[alysheba88]

Many of the high percentage trainers are juicing and cheating. No amount of disinformation will change that. Between this and another thread cant believe how so many have their heads in the sand.

[Observer]

Many of the high percentage trainers are juicing and cheating. ....

And you know this how???
:confused: :confused: :confused:

Why aren't they getting caught??
:confused: :confused: :confused:

[Show Me the Wire]

The conversation could have sounded like this too, Dutrow to owner, "Your horse is in great shape, we can run him again in three days, he has a great shot, especilally if we use some bicarbonate of soda in a liquid mixture."

[alysheba88]

They are getting caught and fined.

Dutrow Jr has been fined and suspended in the past.

John Servis has been fined and suspended,

Scott Lake, fined and suspended

Mark Schuman fined and suspended

Its all out there. Thats just what gets made public. Plenty of other stuff happens behind the scenes.

So, yes I know it happens

Here is a public record detailing just one of Dutrow's suspensions. You have to tab down to find it. After column D http://www.racing.state.ny.us/bmeetings/pastminutes/2004/033004.htm

[PaceAdvantage]

Many of the high percentage trainers are juicing and cheating. No amount of disinformation will change that. Between this and another thread cant believe how so many have their heads in the sand.

I just love posts like this. Where are the facts?

Almost all trainers with large stables have had a positive once in their careers. What the hell does that prove?

Head in the sand? Not in the least. But certainly no "chicken little" either.

If illegal drugs were such a factor in this sport, then the 33% public win percentage would NEVER hold year after year with such consistency.

[alysheba88]

PA, believe what you want. In one thread you claim you are up (aware of the cheating) and then in the next you ask where the facts are even though I posted a link (in a PA approved format by the way, lol) that shows facts. If the link I provided is not fact enough then I dont know what to tell you. Everything I posted is a fact. Those trainers have been fined and suspended.

Are you suggesting that's Dutrow's only suspension? If so then you do not follow NY racing as closely as I thought you did.

As far as win percentages, on the contrary it is the cheaters whose win percentages remain remarkably high on a consistent basis. Because they keep cheating. While an honest trainer like a Shug McGaughey's will fluctuate. Mullins win percentage was consistently high. Until he went under strict surveillance. And now look what has happened. If you put Dutrow and Pletcher under the same surveillance their win percentages will drop too, maybe not as dramatically but still.

Illegal drugs are rampant in horse racing. I applaud California and NY for at least starting to address some of the problems. States like Kentucky are still in full denial

[PaceAdvantage]

I have a problem with your use of the term "many", that's all. You've listed a FEW.

And how exactly do you know that Shug McGaughey is always an honest trainer? (I'm not saying he's not honest, but you get my drift here)? I guess Shug has never had a drug positive in his career? Easy Goer died awfully young, and Lure had fertility problems? You see where speculation can lead?

This is all just your opinion. Sure, you can list a couple of trainers who have been busted for drug positives, but that doesn't mean MANY of the high percentage trainers are cheating. Painting with a broad brush is never a good idea.

[alysheba88]

I stand by many. Would even go as far as to say MOST.

Has been the case for at least the last 30 years. Guys like Beyer were writing about it 30 years ago.

Sorry if that bothers you.

Most of the "super trainers" are cheating. Some would call me naive for not saying all. You think Scott Lake is training with oats and water?

Its no coincedence many of their horses are worthless when claimed by a non cheater.

[Suff]

IThis is all just your opinion. Sure, you can list a couple of trainers who have been busted for drug positives, but that doesn't mean MANY of the high percentage trainers are cheating. Painting with a broad brush is never a good idea.

I don't blame guys for being paranoid. Although its been going on forever. Any tough beat is most assuredly followed by "stiff Job".... Its been that way since I started going to race tracks in 1973. But at the same time.. I give players a wide berth right now. The news isn't good.. and many who do know , have used the term "widespread cheating" when disussing the news out of Santa Anita and New York. So I don't like to see people called brain dead or obsessed with cheating when they voice thier frustrations at what appears to be a very dire situation in racing as a whole. Go easy on the guys... this isn't an easy time to be a thoroughbred racing fan

[Valuist]

To be politically correct, I will not say anyone is cheating.

Now, when I'm betting my money, do I assume a horse that was claimed off an Asmussen, an Amoss or a Dutrow will perform at the same level it did before? Of course not. And when these guys claim a horse who's been consistently running 80-82 Beyers, do I expect a 80-82 in the first race for the new barn? No I expect at least a 90 for them, maybe 95. If its all legit, fine. I've always factored the trainer into the equation. And if it isn't legit, that's okay too. As long as we work to stay ahead of the rest of the public, we'll use it to our advantage.

[alysheba88]

Valuist, absolutely. The perception from idiots like Mullins is that people are "whining" about drugs because they are "losers". From a handicapping perspective I would be probably better off if things continued as is. Because as you say, you expect improvement from their claims and regression on their claim aways. The whole cheating issue can be "gamed" if you know what to look for.

Its the unfairness of it all to the non cheaters, (and the cruelty to the animals) is what I object to most and why I am in favor of stringent testing and punishment.

[Observer]

...Its no coincedence many of their horses are worthless when claimed by a non cheater.

It couldn't possibly be that some trainers just know what it takes to get a horse "right" .. as in proper shoes, proper placement, proper feeding regimen, proper dental care, proper vet care, etc.

It couldn't possibly be that some trainers have the smarts of knowing and the luxury of providing exactly what the horses really need.

No, a trainer with a solid win-percentage couldn't possbily be any of those things. All trainers are the same. So, a trainer with a solid win-percentage could only be one thing, a cheat!
:rolleyes:

Please!!

[alysheba88]

It couldn't possibly be that some trainers just know what it takes to get a horse "right" .. as in proper shoes, proper placement, proper feeding regimen, proper dental care, proper vet care, etc.

It couldn't possibly be that some trainers have the smarts of knowing and the luxury of providing exactly what the horses really need.

No, a trainer with a solid win-percentage couldn't possbily be any of those things. All trainers are the same. So, a trainer with a solid win-percentage could only be one thing, a cheat!
:rolleyes:

Please!!

Observer I did not say that. Of course some trainers are better at their profession than others. Goes without saying. Just like some jockeys are better, and some handicappers are better and so on.

I am saying most of the "super trainers" are cheating. I am not saying anyone with a solid win percentage is a cheat or that someone who knows how to place horses is a cheat. Its fairly obvious who the real egregious ones are. Until recently I even heard people defending Mullins saying almost word for word what you said above. People said the same about Barry Bonds for years too. When it has been clear as day he has been cheating. There are numerous others as well. This isnt something new.

We have only scratched the surface of what is going on. It looks like baseball is going to try to get their house in order, hopefully racing will follow suit.

[andicap]

Has anyone ever tried to estimate how many speed figure points a horse improves on average after being claimed by a "super trainer" assuming he runs right back (within a month or so)?


Observer, I'm sorry but I believe you have your head in the sand and believe what you want to. There were people who denied that Mark McGwire (andro, a steroid) and other bashers were on drugs, but it's apparent the problem in baseball is an epidemic.
See no reason to believe otherwise in racing. If someone is cheating, others will HAVE TO follow suit in order to create a level playing field for themselves.
In fact, that's how they rationalize it (Barry Bonds too). Others are doing it -- it's their livlihood, they have to win, so they do so by any means possible.

Not saying they ALL cheat, but there have been enough suspensions meted out to many of these trainers over the years -- even when the tracks were looking the other way or didn't have the sophistication to test for most of the drugs -- that where there's smoke there's fire.

Like the owners in baseball the tracks and the hierarchy of the sport (Jockey Club et al) must share responsibility for the problem because they looked the other way until it became intolerable and lots of trainers/owners began complaining.

First violation, 60 day suspension
2nd violation, 1 year suspension
3rd violation, explusion

[alysheba88]

andicap touches on something that is real important. Its not just win percentage that is a tip off. Rather its explosive form reversal. The old Oscar Barrera 50 point Beyer improvement move. The horse who breaks slow and wins by 5, with no hint of such ability before.

[PaceAdvantage]

I would suggest then, that everyone stop betting until this stuff is finally cleaned up. Who the hell would want to play a crooked game?

[alysheba88]

Pace, certainly some are taking that approach. Or staying away from the real bad tracks. On the other hand others are taking advantage of their knowledge and making money. Doesnt take a rocket scientist to game much of the obvious cheating going on. Certainly have cashed on more than my share of horses running with that special "Lake Juice". Go to Philadelphia Park and look up Jayne Vaders.

One could easily argue that a more honest game would be harder to handicap. But willing to take that chance to get things fairer.

The one approach that is dangerous to take is to assume its all on the level, that cheating is rare or nonexistent. Cant make money that way.

[PaceAdvantage]

The one approach that is dangerous to take is to assume its all on the level, that cheating is rare or nonexistent. Cant make money that way.

I certainly agree with this quote. I'm more of a middle of the road type. While I certainly don't think it's all on the level, I also don't think it's as rampant and widespread as some believe.

If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. I like to see proof before I believe in extremes.

[Observer]

...I believe you have your head in the sand...

I have my head in the sand because I offer a contrarian statement that very well could be valid?? I never said in all cases. It was just a general statement that most certainly can be valid in some cases.

The basic vibe here, especially recently, has been that nearly everyone thinks a high-percentage trainer can only pull that off by way of cheating. I simply do not agree with that belief .. and if that means I have my head in the sand, so be it.

[Tom]

The next you know, you guys will be saying baseball superstars are using steroids. Get over this paranoia - racing is as clean as baseball! :rolleyes:

[cj]

So, where were the 35% trainers before they sprung from nowhere in the late 90s, all around the same time?

[bobbyb]

cj, they were boning up, of course.............

Equine Drugs and Vaccines - a guide for Owners and Trainers, circa 1995 by Eleanor M. Kellon, V.M.D

Performance Drugs in Sport - by Dr Phillip Swann, circa 1990

everything you need at your fingertips.....

bobbyb :bang:

[Valuist]

Andicap-

I say figure a minimum of 5 lengths improvement (12 Beyer points at 6f, 10 or so at a mile/or mile and a sixteenth) in the first race for the new barn.

As for the horses that get claimed away from these trainers, I've found that while they tail off after leaving these barns, its not as quick as the improvement they showed when going to those barns. I figure only a length or 2 decline in the first race after the negative barn switch but anticipate further decline with each added race.

[Observer]

So, where were the 35% trainers before they sprung from nowhere in the late 90s, all around the same time?

Forgive me .. I'm not being stupid here .. but seriously, the game has changed in more ways then one since the 90s.

Where were the super-conservative trainers in the 90s????
;)

As for horses tailing off when claimed .. it totally depends on who does the claiming. The end of the amazing win-streak of Arromanches is a perfect example.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I have never yet seen proof or stats breakdown on % of horses disqualified or % found using performance-enhancing drugs vs. pain relievers.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Round Table Presentation by Dr. Gary Lavin

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Let me begin by thanking Jim Gallagher and Dr. Scot Waterman for their effort on the Drug Testing Task Force Report.

This report was two years in the making and we believe that it will have far-reaching implications for drug testing and standards.

First, I'd like to cover the results of our 30-state survey, which will set the stage for the Supertest findings.

Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbant Assay or ELISA testing, and Thin Layer Chromatography, TLC, are the dominant testing methodologies in use today.

One hundred forty three different ELISA tests are available. Our states report using an average of 20 ELISA tests per sample.

Although ELISA and TLC are the dominant screening methods, they're very different in practice. ELISAs are drug or drug-group specific. TLC can screen for a variety of drugs, but might not detect the presence of drug or drug metabolites in low concentrations.

In looking at the issue of threshold levels, it's clear that disparities exist between states on what constitutes an actionable drug finding.

At the same time, the vast majority of states have "zero tolerance" for a wide range of drugs, including some commonly used therapeutic medications such as acepromazine and clenbuterol.

Drug testing expenditures also show wide variance by state. High rates of spending don't necessarily guarantee excellent test results depending on the methods and expertise of the laboratory.

The result is a labyrinth of testing methods and procedures.

In contrast, the Supertest is the most comprehensive testing ever done on post-race samples. Today's report covers 1,272 of the 1,800 samples to be tested.

In summary, the Supertest found two Class 1 drugs; two Class 2 drugs; and eighteen Class 3s. Class 1 drugs have the highest potential to influence performance. Class 3 drugs may have a moderate influence on performance and may have a therapeutic value as well.

****98.3 percent of the Supertest samples contained no Class 1, 2 or 3 drugs.

In the remaining samples, 82 percent of the confirmations were for Class 3s.

[Dr. Carter]

Guys, there is no simple answer for this problem. And despite what some wish to believe, there is a problem. I know that most of you guys are bettors and fans not trainers or chemists. Because of this much of the facts and truths are not available to you and much of what has come out is either biased or just plain wrong. The public at large only gets information that the industry releases and much is reported by shills and morons.

Fact1- The biggest problem is regards to drugs in horses in the ineffectiveness of racing comissions and management in recognizing that a problem exists. They want proof. Well I am not an investigator or an FBI agent but I'm sure that if any real effort was made by qualified individuals, there would be more than enough proof. Quoting win %'s is not enough. You can catch trainers and vets, they are not master criminals, as evidenced by Greg Martin and the rash of milkshake positives. Trainers and vets are enbolden to try to get away with things because there is NO deterrent in the form of proper security personel or surveillence. Imagine what results you would get if ALL trainers got the surveillence that Mullins is currently getting? Don't you think some guys would have similar results?

Fact 2- ALL trainers look for an edge over their competition. It is a competitive game where the winners get rich and the losers go broke. Bettors are looking for that same edge. Whether the edge you seek is legal is a whole different matter. If a trainer is using EPO then he is cheating, just as the guys who manipulated the BC pick 6 tickets were cheating. But if the current climate dictates the direction of penalties then the line between innocous mistakes and out and out cheating will get blurred. Certain Trainers that train for certain owners will always get a pass. Look at the recent fines handed down at the Fair Grounds. Mullins got a positive test for an ulcer med thats a class 5, the least potent and non performance enhancing medication and recieved a $1000 fine. Tom Amoss got a positive for a class 4 drug and got a $500 fine. How does this make sense? The more potent drug got the lesser fine? Connections. Pure and simple. Think Shug will ever get surveillence at his barn in NY? Think Neil Howard will get surveillence in KY? Mandella in CA? Not saying that these guys are doing anything but you get the picture. There are guys that I know for a FACT are dirty in NY/FL but they train for influential people and they will continue to get a pass. Meanwhile the regulators are looking to make some other poor schmo an example that they are doing something to clean up the sport.

Fact 3- All these supertests and drug consortiums are missing the point. This should have been done years ago. Don't pat yourself on the back for being 20 years behind the times. The sinister dark cloud on the horizon is the currently undectable drugs that are gaining in availability. Some of these things are given orally in small doses. They could be brought right into a detention barn and given without raising an eyebrow. Could be put right into a horses feed tub or water bucket. All the current testing wont find these type of things. NEW research needs to be done. Little if any money is being used in this respect. There is not enough funding to test for many of the drugs that we know are available so how much money goes into what we dont know?

Stats can be used in many ways. I dont see the corelation in % of winning favs to cheating. But I do think that major form reversals warrant some sort of attention. Do you realize that when a 60-1 wins no one ever questions the connections about the form reversal? When a trainer claims a horse off of a mediocre effort and runs it back 8 days later and the horse runs off the screen, the stewards don't call an ask for an explaination? Don't tell me some crap about different training techniques or B.S.. I've claimed many horses and done well with a lot of them but I've seen somethings that would make your head spin. Guys that would not know what end of a horse eats and what craps suddenly are move up trainers and are winning 37%. The worst thing about being inside the game is that you realize that pretty much "no one is minding the store." The recent spats of press and the current efforts are a step in the right direction but they are miles and miles away from level playing field.

[Tom]

I think the use of ANY drug on race day should be banned.

[GeTydOn]

I agree. Horses should run clean.