Maiden Special Question

[how cliche]

I've cashed numerous win tickets over the years in maiden claiming races when I see a runner who has never really showed interest in the mornings working or in the afternoons racing, but then the equpment change of blinkers on or blinkers off occurs and the runner posts an outstanding bullet workout. Many of these horses follow the bullet with a win. Does this occurence happen often in Maiden Special races as well?

The reason I ask is there's a horse in Saturday's 3rd at Santa Anita who has this happening to him. #4 Thunder Maker(12-1 M/L). He started his career in good fashion by running third to Kirkendahl and Going Wild, who both returned to win their next starts and have asserted themselves on the triple crown trail. Then he was laid off for a few months. In his subsequent starts and works as a 3YO he's been really dull, even when favored in the comebacker. 9 days after his most recent flop and 7 days prior to tomorrow's race however, he was equipped with blinkers and posted the fastest move of 79 going 4f. It really caught my attention.

Upon reviewing my records, I found that all winners I've cashed when this happens were competing in maiden claiming races. Is there any merit for this discovery in Maiden Special Weight races as well?

[keilan]

If Thunder Maker is any kind of racehorse I’d expect we’ll see today. His first couple races suggest he would enjoy the addition of blinkers and the last race doesn’t tell us much other than he didn’t enjoy mud being thrown at him over a wf track routing.

Keep in mind the track will again favour front-running horses over another sloppy track today, I like your 4 horse to hit the board today w / 2-10-12

[rrbauer]

I see this as a trainer "angle" and not a MC versus MSW "angle". There are some trainers who have b-on/b-off patterns associated with both class changes and distance changes AND morning moves that have +ROI's. The reason that I would prefer to classify the situation in the trainer realm is the fact that there are many trainers who experiment with equipment changes that are doing so because nothing else is working (and the equipment change doesn't work either!). And, the experiment has little to do with anything else including the horses performance level. At the same time, there are trainers who routinely use equipment/distance/class level changes that have positive expectations. In this case, Dollase adding blinkers is not a strong angle. The horses overall workout pattern was much stronger prior to its debut race than its recent pattern, in spite of the fast blowout figure. (I didn't see the race but I know the horse didn't win.) They "only" paid $45k for this animal so you may get your MC chance next time out!

[keilan]

As you know I don’t pay much attention to recent works or otherwise. Quite honestly I don’t interpret that information accurately enough and it has lead me in the wrong direction too often. I know that you use that information very effectively and I applaud you


Thunder Maker isn’t a horse I’ll spend any time following, yesterday he caught a weak mdspwt field and didn’t lift his feet. I agree he isn’t much and will run in the mdn claiming ranks very soon. I liked his race pattern leading into this race, his first two races indicated that he would move forward with the addition of blinkers if he were any kind of a runner coupled that with what I considered a below average field and decent odds makes him useable. It wasn’t a large surprise that a FTS (#6) ran 2nd and was moved up after the fav (#12) was DQ. As players we are constantly looking how to attack each race. In this case I liked what I saw with Thunder Maker but I could just as easily attacked the race from the premise that the field was weak and a FTS w/ good connections, decently bred at long odds was worth a shot.

Almost the exact same situation occurred in the 5th race at Gulfstream yesterday, The #1 (Roman Candles) adds blinkers, similar race pattern, very similar numbers and wins at 40-1. I used this guy in x’s and underneath in tri’s and ended up missing on all my tickets. Had all the horses but didn’t have Roman Candles on top anywhere. In this case the 2 favourites looked solid to me and I missed a golden opportunity.

[Show Me the Wire]

keilan:

Good observations about patterns and blinkers realting to the relative strength of the fields.

[keilan]

We players sometimes don’t employ enough common sense when looking at the races. If we only asked ourselves the correct group of questions when handicapping we would become more efficient, at least that’s true for me. The trick is knowing which questions are relevant for each race scenario.